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Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> reported weak results last week but subsequently announced a 103 million SGD investment by Temasek. The Temasek investment comes ahead of an expected strong 2H21 and 2022 but more importantly right ahead of probable new major customer wins. As well documented AEM is highly dependent on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> for 80% of its revenues and needs new customers to diversify. Management has quietly been forming new relationships and is in various trial phases with some of the largest semiconductor companies other than Intel. During 1Q21's conf call we first heard of management's growing optimism and this was again reiterated in 2Q21.On the 3Q20 call AEM's Chairman Loke Wai San was asked if he would consider a Nasdaq listing. His answer at the time was "once we get to a billion USD market cap we can consider it". The combination of the Temasek investment and the anticipated major new customer wins will likely get us there. In this regard <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sgx-and-nasdaq-extend-partnership-to-help-firms-access-capital" target="_blank" rel="noopener">please recall</a> that in July 2020 SGX and Nasdaq agreed to make "dual-listings" between both exchanges easier. What better company to kick-off this agreement than AEM?Fair Value increases to 8 SGD (20x P/E on 0.40 SGD FY22 EPS). Recall, AEM already earned 0.35 SGD EPS in 2020, so assuming new customer wins materialize 0.40 SGD is not a stretch.

AEM (AEM SP) reported weak results last week but subsequently announced a 103 million SGD investment by Temasek. The Temasek investment comes ahead of an expected strong 2H21 and 2022 but more importantly right ahead of probable new major customer wins. As well documented AEM is highly dependent on Intel Corp (INTC US) for 80% of its revenues and needs new customers to diversify. Management has quietly been forming new relationships and is in various trial phases with some of the largest semiconductor companies other than Intel. During 1Q21's conf call we first heard of management's growing optimism and this was again reiterated in 2Q21.On the 3Q20 call AEM's Chairman Loke Wai San was asked if he would consider a Nasdaq listing. His answer at the time was "once we get to a billion USD market cap we can consider it". The combination of the Temasek investment and the anticipated major new customer wins will likely get us there. In this regard please recall that in July 2020 SGX and Nasdaq agreed to make "dual-listings" between both exchanges easier. What better company to kick-off this agreement than AEM?Fair Value increases to 8 SGD (20x P/E on 0.40 SGD FY22 EPS). Recall, AEM already earned 0.35 SGD EPS in 2020, so assuming new customer wins materialize 0.40 SGD is not a stretch.

AEM: Temasek Investment + New Customers = Pre-Cursor to Nasdaq Listing? Fair Value to 8 SGD

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Samsung had big semiconductor revenue growth in the second quarter, driven mainly by a tight memory market which experienced price increases.  This brought the company's revenues slightly higher than Intel's.  Leading indicators imply that this distinction will be short-lived.

Samsung had big semiconductor revenue growth in the second quarter, driven mainly by a tight memory market which experienced price increases.  This brought the company's revenues slightly higher than Intel's.  Leading indicators imply that this distinction will be short-lived.

Samsung 2Q21 Semiconductor Earnings Super Strong, For Now

<h2>Headline Developments</h2>Another bad week for Didi (DIDI) , with the stock plummeting a further 21% after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators were weighing up “serious, perhaps unprecedented penalties” which may include a hefty fine (&gt;$2.8b), enforcing a state-owned investment or delisting the company from the NYSE.

Headline DevelopmentsAnother bad week for Didi (DIDI) , with the stock plummeting a further 21% after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators were weighing up “serious, perhaps unprecedented penalties” which may include a hefty fine (&gt;$2.8b), enforcing a state-owned investment or delisting the company from the NYSE.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Intel held a technology roadmap update yesterday...the key changes were literally in name only. We'll believe Intel jumping 5 nodes in 4 years when we see it.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Intel held a technology roadmap update yesterday...the key changes were literally in name only. We'll believe Intel jumping 5 nodes in 4 years when we see it.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Intel: Changing Names Doesn’t Accelerate a Roadmap

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #45

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming. The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory...

Granite Bay Capital

AEM: Temasek Investment + New Customers = Pre-Cursor to Nasdaq Listing? Fair Value to 8 SGD

AEM remains a top pick as it digests the Temasek investment and gets ready to list on Nasdaq in 2022. Major new customer wins are likely as...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Samsung 2Q21 Semiconductor Earnings Super Strong, For Now

Samsung's 2Q21 revenues rose above those of Intel. Is this a permanent situation, or will Samsung's revenues fall once again below Intel's?

Jim Handy

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #42

Headline Developments: Another bad week for Didi (DIDI) , with the stock plummeting a further 21% after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators...

Granite Bay Capital

Intel: Changing Names Doesn’t Accelerate a Roadmap

Intel held a technology roadmap update yesterday...the key changes were literally in name only. We'll believe Intel jumping 5 nodes in 4 years when...

Aaron Gabin

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