Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Markets raced to 52-week highs across US equity benchmarks with rally in tech stocks contributing to much of these gains. Nikkei raced to print another 34-year high.</li>
<li>Oil &amp; Copper ticked higher while other major commodities trended downwards last week. Beans and Corn marked their lowest price prints over the last 52-weeks.</li>
<li>Life is too short to be spent writing for an echo chamber and rewriting to meet the often arbitrary demands of a reviewer, writes Dr Damodaran.</li>
</ul>


Markets raced to 52-week highs across US equity benchmarks with rally in tech stocks contributing to much of these gains. Nikkei raced to print another 34-year high.
Oil &amp; Copper ticked higher while other major commodities trended downwards last week. Beans and Corn marked their lowest price prints over the last 52-weeks.
Life is too short to be spent writing for an echo chamber and rewriting to meet the often arbitrary demands of a reviewer, writes Dr Damodaran.


[TW2] US & JPN Equities on Steroids While China Remains Shaky on Deflation Fears (W/E 19th Jan 24)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For 2023, Smartphone unit shipments amounted to 1.17 billion units,  a 3.2% YoY decline, far better than we expected at the beginning of last year.</li>
<li>For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250 million units was in 2006.</li>
<li>The weaker than anticipated PC TAM is a headwind for Intel heading into earnings and Q124 guidance on January 25</li>
</ul>


For 2023, Smartphone unit shipments amounted to 1.17 billion units,  a 3.2% YoY decline, far better than we expected at the beginning of last year.
For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250 million units was in 2006.
The weaker than anticipated PC TAM is a headwind for Intel heading into earnings and Q124 guidance on January 25


2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of $19.62 billion, at the high end of guidance, up 13.8% QoQ and down 1.5% YoY. Net profit margin of 38.2% results in net income of ~$7.5 billion.</li>
<li>FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005</li>
<li>Bullish FY24 forecast for &gt;20% YoY growth sends share price soaring in overnight trading. </li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of $19.62 billion, at the high end of guidance, up 13.8% QoQ and down 1.5% YoY. Net profit margin of 38.2% results in net income of ~$7.5 billion.
FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005
Bullish FY24 forecast for &gt;20% YoY growth sends share price soaring in overnight trading. 


Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>AEM had a bizarre announcement on Sunday evening the 14th of January 2024: inventory was "lost" on the way to Penang from its Singapore factory.</li>
<li>Given AEM's stellar corporate governance reputation up until now, this raises more than a few eyebrows: how is this even possible? </li>
<li>4Q23 results, due in a month, will feature a large restatement of FY23 results and lead to a major earnings loss. Any recovery is delayed into FY25.</li>
</ul>


AEM had a bizarre announcement on Sunday evening the 14th of January 2024: inventory was "lost" on the way to Penang from its Singapore factory.
Given AEM's stellar corporate governance reputation up until now, this raises more than a few eyebrows: how is this even possible? 
4Q23 results, due in a month, will feature a large restatement of FY23 results and lead to a major earnings loss. Any recovery is delayed into FY25.


AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang...

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalwafers-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17916:1" rel="noopener">Globalwafers (6488 TT)</a> outlook for 1Q24F is likely to show a slightly negative QoQ revenue trend. However, we anticipate a positive direction from 2Q24F onwards.  </li>
<li>We have a relatively high conviction for 2024F compared to 2023, indicating upside potential for the Memory and Logic sectors.</li>
<li>The supply of 12" raw wafers remains constrained among the top market players, and overcoming this constraint won't be easy.  </li>
</ul>


The Globalwafers (6488 TT) outlook for 1Q24F is likely to show a slightly negative QoQ revenue trend. However, we anticipate a positive direction from 2Q24F onwards.  
We have a relatively high conviction for 2024F compared to 2023, indicating upside potential for the Memory and Logic sectors.
The supply of 12" raw wafers remains constrained among the top market players, and overcoming this constraint won't be easy.  


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Outlook Could Be a Bit Downside, but 2Q24F Could Be Picking Upward.

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

[TW2] US & JPN Equities on Steroids While China Remains Shaky on Deflation Fears (W/E 19th Jan 24)

Animal spirits were back in charge last week as market sentiments rose high. US and Japanese equity markets continue to set record highs. Are we...

Mint Finance

2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250...

William Keating

TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon

FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005. Bullish FY24 forecast for >20% YoY growth sends share...

William Keating

AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang...

AEM's credibility with investors took a blow when it reported that some of its inventory "fell off the truck" during transport from Singapore to...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Outlook Could Be a Bit Downside, but 2Q24F Could Be Picking Upward.

Globalwafers' 1Q24F outlook may have a slight decline in revenue, and a positive trend is expected from 2Q24F. Overcoming the constraint in the...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[TW2] US & JPN Equities on Steroids While China Remains Shaky on Deflation Fears (W/E 19th Jan 24)

Animal spirits were back in charge last week as market sentiments rose high. US and Japanese equity markets continue to set record highs. Are we...

Mint Finance

2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250...

William Keating

TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon

FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005. Bullish FY24 forecast for >20% YoY growth sends share...

William Keating

AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang...

AEM's credibility with investors took a blow when it reported that some of its inventory "fell off the truck" during transport from Singapore to...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Outlook Could Be a Bit Downside, but 2Q24F Could Be Picking Upward.

​Globalwafers' 1Q24F outlook may have a slight decline in revenue, and a positive trend is expected from 2Q24F. Overcoming the constraint in the...

Patrick Liao

Globalwafers' 1Q24F outlook may have a slight decline in revenue, and a positive trend is expected from 2Q24F. Overcoming the constraint in the...