IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> aims to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a> through share purchase agreements (SPA), a share subscription agreement (SSA) and a public tender offer at KRW30,000.</li>
<li>Since the deal announcement on 26 May, the spread has widened, reflecting deal risk around patent litigation risk, regulatory approvals and the minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>Our assessment of these risks suggests a low probability of a deal break. At the last close, the gross spread is an attractive 8.5%. </li>
</ul>



Medtronic Plc (MDT US) aims to acquire Eoflow (294090 KS) through share purchase agreements (SPA), a share subscription agreement (SSA) and a public tender offer at KRW30,000.
Since the deal announcement on 26 May, the spread has widened, reflecting deal risk around patent litigation risk, regulatory approvals and the minimum acceptance condition.
Our assessment of these risks suggests a low probability of a deal break. At the last close, the gross spread is an attractive 8.5%. 


EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Assessing the Wide Spread

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insulet-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5252:1" rel="noopener">Insulet Corp (PODD US)</a>, with expanding user-base and product innovation, is well-positioned to face competition in the US patch pump market. Large and underpenetrated target market offers immense growth potential.  </li>
<li>Insulet raised Omnipod 2023 revenue growth guidance to 21–25% from 17–22% previously. The U.S. Omnipod revenue growth guidance has been raised to 27–31% from 21–26% earlier.</li>
<li>For 2023, Insulet expects gross profit margin of 65–66%, compared with 61.7% in 2022. Insulet has reaffirmed high-single-digit operating profit margin for 2023 compared with 2.9% in 2022.</li>
</ul>



Insulet Corp (PODD US), with expanding user-base and product innovation, is well-positioned to face competition in the US patch pump market. Large and underpenetrated target market offers immense growth potential.  
Insulet raised Omnipod 2023 revenue growth guidance to 21–25% from 17–22% previously. The U.S. Omnipod revenue growth guidance has been raised to 27–31% from 21–26% earlier.
For 2023, Insulet expects gross profit margin of 65–66%, compared with 61.7% in 2022. Insulet has reaffirmed high-single-digit operating profit margin for 2023 compared with 2.9% in 2022.


Insulet Corp (PODD US): Slow Recovery Is Expected on Easing Competition Fear; 2023 Guidance Raised

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide an update of Medtronic's tender offer of Eoflow. </li>
<li>The foreign ownership of Eoflow has surged in the past two months from 6.5% on 25 May to 33.2% as of 24 July. </li>
<li>We continue to believe that there is 95%+ probability of this M&amp;A getting completed at the tender offer price of 30,000 won and Eoflow eventually becoming delisted in 2H 2023. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide an update of Medtronic's tender offer of Eoflow. 
The foreign ownership of Eoflow has surged in the past two months from 6.5% on 25 May to 33.2% as of 24 July. 
We continue to believe that there is 95%+ probability of this M&amp;A getting completed at the tender offer price of 30,000 won and Eoflow eventually becoming delisted in 2H 2023. 


An Update on Medtronic's Tender Offer of Eoflow

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tandem-diabetes-care-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20893:1" rel="noopener">Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US)</a> has been consistently missing earnings expectations. This is taking a toll on the share price performance, with shares plunging ~61% over the last one year.</li>
<li>Tandem’s nearest rival has recently launched its new insulin pump in the U.S. This will affect Tandem’s Q2 sales growth. Tandem guided for 10–12% revenue growth in 2023.</li>
<li>Tandem is a hugely beaten down stock. However, it will be wise to wait for Tandem to launch new product, ensure its good uptake amid competition, and exhibit earnings stability.</li>
</ul>



Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US) has been consistently missing earnings expectations. This is taking a toll on the share price performance, with shares plunging ~61% over the last one year.
Tandem’s nearest rival has recently launched its new insulin pump in the U.S. This will affect Tandem’s Q2 sales growth. Tandem guided for 10–12% revenue growth in 2023.
Tandem is a hugely beaten down stock. However, it will be wise to wait for Tandem to launch new product, ensure its good uptake amid competition, and exhibit earnings stability.


Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US): Missed Earnings + Severe Competition = A Bitter Pill to Swallow

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> aims to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a> through share purchase agreements (SPA), a share subscription agreement (SSA) and a public tender offer at KRW30,000.</li>
<li>The shares are trading wide to terms due to key risks - regulatory approvals and the minimum acceptance condition (Medtronic owns 53.02% of the post-SSA outstanding shares).</li>
<li>The regulatory approvals should be forthcoming due to minimum competition issues. The minimum acceptance condition requires a minority acceptance rate of 15.7%, which is achievable due to an attractive offer.</li>
</ul>



Medtronic Plc (MDT US) aims to acquire Eoflow (294090 KS) through share purchase agreements (SPA), a share subscription agreement (SSA) and a public tender offer at KRW30,000.
The shares are trading wide to terms due to key risks - regulatory approvals and the minimum acceptance condition (Medtronic owns 53.02% of the post-SSA outstanding shares).
The regulatory approvals should be forthcoming due to minimum competition issues. The minimum acceptance condition requires a minority acceptance rate of 15.7%, which is achievable due to an attractive offer.


EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Risk/Reward Profile

United States

Insulet Corporation is a medical device company that develops, manufactures and markets an insulin infusion system for people with insulin-dependent diabetes.

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Insulet Corp (PODD US)

EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Assessing the Wide Spread

Our assessment of the key deal risks suggests a low probability of a deal break. At the last close, the gross spread is an attractive 8.5%.

Arun George