Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kelun-biotech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36801:1" rel="noopener">Kelun Biotech</a> (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>KB is a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company. It has accumulated more than ten years of experience in antibody drug conjugates (ADC) development.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Kelun Biotech (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.
KB is a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company. It has accumulated more than ten years of experience in antibody drug conjugates (ADC) development.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs' next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.</li>
<li>Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.</li>
<li>Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don't think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.</li>
</ul>


For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs' next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don't think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

China Resources Medical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Investors should be aware of the increasing prices of TCM raw materials, which could lead to fluctuations in profit margins of TCM companies. Investors should prepare for these potential impacts.</li>
<li>After years of “fast-follow”, we’ve finally seen products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies stand at the center of the stage for the first time in the new generation of ADC.</li>
<li>China Resources Medical's profitability outlook is not promising due to issues within the Chinese healthcare system. The bottom line is P/B above 1 and P/E above 10x.</li>
</ul>


Investors should be aware of the increasing prices of TCM raw materials, which could lead to fluctuations in profit margins of TCM companies. Investors should prepare for these potential impacts.
After years of “fast-follow”, we’ve finally seen products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies stand at the center of the stage for the first time in the new generation of ADC.
China Resources Medical's profitability outlook is not promising due to issues within the Chinese healthcare system. The bottom line is P/B above 1 and P/E above 10x.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) - TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;</li>
<li>With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;</li>
<li>The big question is the price elasticity <em>following</em> Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.</li>
</ul>


Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;
With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;
The big question is the price elasticity following Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.


What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

<ul>
<li>Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.</li>
<li>There is a logic to biotech's performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.</li>
<li>YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22928:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Pharmaceutical</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-pharmaceuticals-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:228:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Pharmaceuticals</a>, we wouldn't be too surprised.</li>
</ul>


Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.
There is a logic to biotech's performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.
YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than China Resources Pharmaceutical and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, we wouldn't be too surprised.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains

Kelun Biotech (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) - TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK

Investors should watch for rising TCM raw material prices. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are rising in ADC.Caution with China Resources...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains

Kelun Biotech (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

​Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) - TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK

​Investors should watch for rising TCM raw material prices. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are rising in ADC.Caution with China Resources...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

​Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

​Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...

Investors should watch for rising TCM raw material prices. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are rising in ADC.Caution with China Resources...

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...