Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

On our next webinar, we're happy to welcome back Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/wium-malan-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:9615" rel="noopener">Wium Malan, CFA</a> who will share an updated view on key IT services companies in India. The webinar will cover <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infosys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:267:1" rel="noopener">Infosys Ltd (INFO IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hcl-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20025:1" rel="noopener">Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN)</a>, as Indian IT services companies expect significant growth in FY2022 - albeit off a low base. Is this the start of a hyper-growth period, and has this already been priced into their lofty valuations?
<h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 12 May 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3>
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<h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=85689024246" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2>
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Wium Malan is a Global Equity Analyst with 13+ years of experience on the Buy-side covering companies in Emerging and Developed markets. He specialises in Fundamental and Quantitative analysis on companies in the Internet, Telecommunication, Media, Technology, IT Services, Healthcare, Pharmaceutical, and other Industrial sectors.

On our next webinar, we're happy to welcome back Insight Provider Wium Malan, CFA who will share an updated view on key IT services companies in India. The webinar will cover Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN), Infosys Ltd (INFO IN), Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN), and Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN), as Indian IT services companies expect significant growth in FY2022 - albeit off a low base. Is this the start of a hyper-growth period, and has this already been priced into their lofty valuations?
The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 12 May 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Register for the Webinar here

Wium Malan is a Global Equity Analyst with 13+ years of experience on the Buy-side covering companies in Emerging and Developed markets. He specialises in Fundamental and Quantitative analysis on companies in the Internet, Telecommunication, Media, Technology, IT Services, Healthcare, Pharmaceutical, and other Industrial sectors.

Smartkarma Webinar | Indian IT Services: Picks and Pans

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

PowerGrid Infrastructure Inves / Equity Capital Markets

POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust (PGIT) aims to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. PGIT is an investment trust setup to own transmission assets of its sponsor Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL). PGCIL is a central public sector enterprise which has been listed since 2007. PGIT will initially own five assets with a total network of 11 power transmission lines of approximately 3,698.59 ckm and three substations having 6,630 Megavolt amperes (MVA) of aggregate transformation capacity, as of Sep 2020, across five states in India. The total valuation of the assets was INR105bn (US$1.4bn) as of Sep 2020. These assets were awarded to PGCIL on a  build-own-operate-maintain (BOOM) basis. Therefore, the assets are operated under a long 35 years service agreement with largely pre-fixed revenue based on availability. In that sense, they will provide stable returns. However, its revenue terms are structured in such a way that its yield will continue to decline, while its sponsor’s government ownership will mean that it's unlikely to diversify away from transmission assets with declining yield.Our previous coverage of the IPO:<ul><li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/powergrid-invit-pre-ipo-always-going-to-be-tricky-with-a-declining-yield" target="_blank" rel="noopener">POWERGRID InvIT Pre-IPO - Always going to be tricky with a declining yield</a></li></ul>

POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust (PGIT) aims to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. PGIT is an investment trust setup to own transmission assets of its sponsor Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL). PGCIL is a central public sector enterprise which has been listed since 2007. PGIT will initially own five assets with a total network of 11 power transmission lines of approximately 3,698.59 ckm and three substations having 6,630 Megavolt amperes (MVA) of aggregate transformation capacity, as of Sep 2020, across five states in India. The total valuation of the assets was INR105bn (US$1.4bn) as of Sep 2020. These assets were awarded to PGCIL on a  build-own-operate-maintain (BOOM) basis. Therefore, the assets are operated under a long 35 years service agreement with largely pre-fixed revenue based on availability. In that sense, they will provide stable returns. However, its revenue terms are structured in such a way that its yield will continue to decline, while its sponsor’s government ownership will mean that it's unlikely to diversify away from transmission assets with declining yield.Our previous coverage of the IPO:POWERGRID InvIT Pre-IPO - Always going to be tricky with a declining yield

POWERGRID InvIT IPO - Assets Are Fine, Declining Yield Is Not

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

In 2016, a Blackstone fund purchased 60.5% of India-based IT Solutions Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> from Hewlett Packard (which had been looking to sell its stake for quite a while after having purchased it in 2008 when it bought out EDS) at Rs 430/share, then conducted an Open Offer to buy more shares at Rs 457 and change. The deal was to purchase 106.2mm shares from the sellers and another 26% or 54.93mm shares via an Open Offer, and if no shares were acquired in the Open Offer, the Blackstone fund would buy the other 20.9mm shares from the HPE entity selling and HPE would own no more shares. 
When the deal was announced, the price was just below Rs 500/share and during the course of the summer the price rose further so that the Open Offer at the time obtained only 0.001% of shares out. 
The shares rose, doubling reasonably quickly as Blackstone quickly revamped operations. Over the years, Blackstone opportunistically bought and sold small slices of the company in market operations. Late last year, it became clear that Blackstone was weighing the possibility of selling its 56.16% stake in the company as the valuation had run and shares were three times where they were when they bought. There were suggestions it might also be related to the possible departure of Blackstone India senior managing director Amit Jain who was rumored to be quitting to take up the co-head spot at Carlyle India. By January, seller due diligence had been conducted, banks were engaged, and Blackstone was en route to selling its stake (and the Buyer would be liable to launch an Open Offer) in its largest India investment to date to one of the four PE houses which were expected to put in bids - Brookfield, Bain, Carlyle, and Permira. 
Final round bids were due 24 February and by early March, the sale had been called off as the prospective lead buyer Carlyle and Blackstone as seller couldn't come to terms.
Today, we have a deal. But it's not Carlyle.
Blackstone is selling to Blackstone.

In 2016, a Blackstone fund purchased 60.5% of India-based IT Solutions Provider Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) from Hewlett Packard (which had been looking to sell its stake for quite a while after having purchased it in 2008 when it bought out EDS) at Rs 430/share, then conducted an Open Offer to buy more shares at Rs 457 and change. The deal was to purchase 106.2mm shares from the sellers and another 26% or 54.93mm shares via an Open Offer, and if no shares were acquired in the Open Offer, the Blackstone fund would buy the other 20.9mm shares from the HPE entity selling and HPE would own no more shares. 
When the deal was announced, the price was just below Rs 500/share and during the course of the summer the price rose further so that the Open Offer at the time obtained only 0.001% of shares out. 
The shares rose, doubling reasonably quickly as Blackstone quickly revamped operations. Over the years, Blackstone opportunistically bought and sold small slices of the company in market operations. Late last year, it became clear that Blackstone was weighing the possibility of selling its 56.16% stake in the company as the valuation had run and shares were three times where they were when they bought. There were suggestions it might also be related to the possible departure of Blackstone India senior managing director Amit Jain who was rumored to be quitting to take up the co-head spot at Carlyle India. By January, seller due diligence had been conducted, banks were engaged, and Blackstone was en route to selling its stake (and the Buyer would be liable to launch an Open Offer) in its largest India investment to date to one of the four PE houses which were expected to put in bids - Brookfield, Bain, Carlyle, and Permira. 
Final round bids were due 24 February and by early March, the sale had been called off as the prospective lead buyer Carlyle and Blackstone as seller couldn't come to terms.
Today, we have a deal. But it's not Carlyle.
Blackstone is selling to Blackstone. 

Blackstone Sells Mphasis Stake To.... Blackstone and Investors Get a CHEAP Option

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a> reported its Q4FY21 earnings. Optically, it reported strong growth but the devil lies in the details. There is not much to cheer about! Adjusted for TCS' inorganic captive acquisitions, the growth appears to be moderate. All that is there to cheer about, is already priced in. While the Digital Transformation and Cloud Services segments no doubt present a long runway for growth, the current valuation seems to be already pricing this in.

Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) reported its Q4FY21 earnings. Optically, it reported strong growth but the devil lies in the details. There is not much to cheer about! Adjusted for TCS' inorganic captive acquisitions, the growth appears to be moderate. All that is there to cheer about, is already priced in. While the Digital Transformation and Cloud Services segments no doubt present a long runway for growth, the current valuation seems to be already pricing this in. 

TCS: Organic Growth Was Moderate, Not Much to Cheer About!

Macrotech Developers / Equity Capital Markets

Macrotech Developers (Lodha) aims to raise around US$345m in its India IPO. It is the largest real estate developer in India, by residential sales over FY14-20. In FY20, it had a share of 24% of total supply (by units), 32% of total absorption (by units) and 46% of total absorption (by value) in the Top Seven Indian Markets. Lodha is primarily a residential developer with most of its operations restricted to the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). It has projects across the value spectrum from the affordable segment to ultra-luxury high-end residential projects. As of Dec 2020, it had completed 91 projects with a developable area of 77.22m sqft. As of Dec 2020, it also had 36 ongoing and 18 planned projects in India with a developable area of 28.78m sqft and 45.08m sqft, respectively.This will be the company’s third listing attempt, after 2009/10 and 2018. The size of the deal is expected to be much smaller as well versus the US$800m that it was hoping to raise in 2018. We have looked at its previous listing attempt in our prior note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lodha-developers-pre-ipo-second-time-lucky-but-not-really-that-much-affordable" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lodha Developers Pre-IPO - Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable</a> . We covered the details of the current attempt in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/macrotech-lodha-developers-pre-ipo-new-name-but-up-to-some-of-the-same-old-tricks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Macrotech (Lodha) developers Pre-IPO - New name but up to some of the same old tricks</a>.In this note, we will talk about the valuations.

Macrotech Developers (Lodha) aims to raise around US$345m in its India IPO. It is the largest real estate developer in India, by residential sales over FY14-20. In FY20, it had a share of 24% of total supply (by units), 32% of total absorption (by units) and 46% of total absorption (by value) in the Top Seven Indian Markets. Lodha is primarily a residential developer with most of its operations restricted to the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). It has projects across the value spectrum from the affordable segment to ultra-luxury high-end residential projects. As of Dec 2020, it had completed 91 projects with a developable area of 77.22m sqft. As of Dec 2020, it also had 36 ongoing and 18 planned projects in India with a developable area of 28.78m sqft and 45.08m sqft, respectively.This will be the company’s third listing attempt, after 2009/10 and 2018. The size of the deal is expected to be much smaller as well versus the US$800m that it was hoping to raise in 2018. We have looked at its previous listing attempt in our prior note, Lodha Developers Pre-IPO - Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable . We covered the details of the current attempt in Macrotech (Lodha) developers Pre-IPO - New name but up to some of the same old tricks.In this note, we will talk about the valuations.

Macrotech (Lodha) Developers IPO - One Too Many Issues

India

Infosys Limited provides IT consulting and software services, including e-business, program management and supply chain solutions. The Group's services include application development, product co-development, and system implementation and system engineering. Infosys targets businesses specializing in the insurance, banking, telecommunication and manufacturing sectors.

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Infosys Ltd Sp Adr (INFY US)

Smartkarma Webinar | Indian IT Services: Picks and Pans

On 12 May, 5pm SGT, join us as we welcome back Wium Malan, who will share an updated view on key IT services companies in India like Tata...

Smartkarma Research

POWERGRID InvIT IPO - Assets Are Fine, Declining Yield Is Not

POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust aims to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. PGIT is an investment trust setup to own transmission...

Sumeet Singh

Blackstone Sells Mphasis Stake To.... Blackstone and Investors Get a CHEAP Option

Blackstone is selling its large stake in Mphasis purchased in 2016 to another Blackstone consortium. Price is 3% below here. There may be a 2% div...

Travis Lundy

TCS: Organic Growth Was Moderate, Not Much to Cheer About!

TCS reported its Q4FY21 earnings. Optically, it reported strong growth but the devil is in the details. There is not much to cheer about! All that...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Macrotech (Lodha) Developers IPO - One Too Many Issues

Macrotech Developers (Lodha) aims to raise around US$345m in its India IPO. It is the largest real estate developer in India, by residential sales...

Sumeet Singh

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