IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Webtoon Entertainment / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webtoon-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43652:1" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US)</a> is a global storytelling platform. Webtoon has launched a Nasdaq IPO to raise US$270-315 million at a US$18.00 to US$21.00 price range.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/webtoon-entertainment-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:146038" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/webtoon-entertainment-wbtn-us-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:149092" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we outline our forecasts and valuation. Our valuation analysis suggests that Webtoon is attractively valued at the IPO price range.</li>
</ul>



Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is a global storytelling platform. Webtoon has launched a Nasdaq IPO to raise US$270-315 million at a US$18.00 to US$21.00 price range.
We previously discussed the IPO in Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case and Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, we outline our forecasts and valuation. Our valuation analysis suggests that Webtoon is attractively valued at the IPO price range.


Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webtoon-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43652:1" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US)</a>, a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/webtoon-entertainment-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:146038" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on declining organic revenue, declining Korean paying ratio, a peaking Japan growth driver, optimistic market sizing, and unsustainable low marketing spending.</li>
</ul>



Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US), a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
In Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on declining organic revenue, declining Korean paying ratio, a peaking Japan growth driver, optimistic market sizing, and unsustainable low marketing spending.


Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webtoon-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43652:1" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US)</a>, a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.</li>
<li>Webtoon is the leading web-comic player in all its major geographies, including Korea, the US and Japan. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a> are the primary shareholders.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising monthly active users, strong constant currency growth supported by monetisation initiatives, a shift to profitability, and cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US), a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
Webtoon is the leading web-comic player in all its major geographies, including Korea, the US and Japan. Naver Corp (035420 KS) and LY (4689 JP) are the primary shareholders.
The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising monthly active users, strong constant currency growth supported by monetisation initiatives, a shift to profitability, and cash generation.


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">MMG (1208 HK)</a> US$1.2 billion rights issue. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> seeks to raise up to US$320 million.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagatanien-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8059:1" rel="noopener">Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teijin-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5097:1" rel="noopener">Teijin Ltd (3401 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: MMG (1208 HK) US$1.2 billion rights issue. Shift Up (462870 KS) seeks to raise up to US$320 million.
Event-Driven developments: Asia Cement China (743 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP),  Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP), Teijin Ltd (3401 JP), Altium Ltd (ALU AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (09 Jun) - Teijin, Nagatanien, CF Logistics, Asia Cement, CPMC, MMG, Shift Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone (BX US)</a> is widely reported to have agreed to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teijin-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5097:1" rel="noopener">Teijin Ltd (3401 JP)</a>’s 55% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infocom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8412:1" rel="noopener">Infocom Corp (4348 JP)</a> at a valuation of JPY260 billion. </li>
<li>If the valuation refers to market cap and Teijin shares its tax benefits, Teijin's sale proceeds are around JPY128 billion, which is 42% of its market cap.</li>
<li>However, since 9 May, Teijin shares have been flat vs. Infocom shares are up 63%. Teijin's medium-term plan suggests that the Infocom proceeds could result in substantial share buybacks.</li>
</ul>



Blackstone (BX US) is widely reported to have agreed to acquire Teijin Ltd (3401 JP)’s 55% stake in Infocom Corp (4348 JP) at a valuation of JPY260 billion. 
If the valuation refers to market cap and Teijin shares its tax benefits, Teijin's sale proceeds are around JPY128 billion, which is 42% of its market cap.
However, since 9 May, Teijin shares have been flat vs. Infocom shares are up 63%. Teijin's medium-term plan suggests that the Infocom proceeds could result in substantial share buybacks.


Teijin (3401 JP): Alternative Play on the Potential Infocom Tender

Japan

INFOCOM CORPORATION provides business solutions in information technology.  The Company offers services in such fields as health care, mobile communications, network security, voice recognition, and enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems.  Infocom also provides information distribution and systems management services.

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Infocom Corp (4348 JP)

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Webtoon has launched a Nasdaq IPO to raise US$270-315m at an US$18.00 to US$21.00 price range. Our valuation analysis suggests that Webtoon is...

Arun George

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on declining organic revenue, declining Korean paying ratio, a peaking Japan growth driver, optimistic market sizing, and...

Arun George

Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising monthly active users, strong constant currency growth supported by monetisation initiatives, a shift to...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (09 Jun) - Teijin, Nagatanien, CF Logistics, Asia Cement, CPMC, MMG, Shift Up

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Asia Cement China, CPMC, CF Logistics, Nagatanien, Teijin, Altium, APM) and ECM (MMG,...

Arun George

Teijin (3401 JP): Alternative Play on the Potential Infocom Tender

Since 9 May, Teijin shares have been flat, while Infocom shares are up 63%. Teijin's medium-term plan suggests that the Infocom proceeds could...

Arun George

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