European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Discounts to NAV for our selected European holdcos and DLCs have not shown a clear trend in June.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The report incorporates several SOTP valuations.</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<p>The current premium of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> vs.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton (BLT LN)</a> at close of June was 23.8% (vs. 21.8% at the end of April), against a 10-year average of 14.7%. I would rather be long the UK plc and short the Aussie Ltd through the US listings.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/corp-financiera-alba-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21245:1" rel="noopener">Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM)</a> is trading at a 42.3% discount to NAV  (down from 47.9% at the end of February). The discount does not seem to be arbitraged lately. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naturgy-energy-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21271:1" rel="noopener">Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)</a>, one of its portfolio main assets, is the object of a partial takeover bid; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/euskaltel-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21263:1" rel="noopener">Euskaltel SA (EKT SM)</a> is the object of a full takeover bid, as it has been previously flagged here. Alba has some quality assets and is fundamentally cheap, in my view.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The <strong>discount to NAV</strong> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/groupe-bruxelles-lambert-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21332:1" rel="noopener">Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB)</a> has tightened slightly to <strong>32.7%</strong>. There are no catalysts in sight and the discount stubbornly keeps above 30%.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The <strong>discount in Heineken Holdings relative to Heineken has widened to 16.4%</strong> (vs. 14.4% at the end of April) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years. Recommendation is long Heineken Holdings, short Heineken, and close as soon as it tightens a 2-3%. The upwards trends seems clear by now, and it is not easy to call the top.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22395:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)</a> C shares are trading at a 1.1% premium to NAV. The average discount for the last five years for the C shares has been 11.5%.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount to NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/investor-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22397:1" rel="noopener">Investor AB (INVEB SS)</a> B shares has remained at the same level as end of May, 8.8% (vs. 17.1% at the end of February).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>From my SOTP valuation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinnevik-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22407:1" rel="noopener">Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS)</a> From my SOTP valuation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinnevik-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22407:1" rel="noopener">Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS)</a> <strong>B shares traded at an 14.9% premium to NAV</strong> at the end of June (vs a 1.6% discount at the end of February). A shares are trading at a c. 40.1% premium to NAV. Until mid-January, the price difference between A and B shares was rather small. The discount of B shares to A shares began to increase my mid January, now it is c. 29.5%; voting rights count again at Kinnevik. Post the Zalando distribution (together with the Millicom distribution), Kinnevik will transform itself in a listed VC, investing mainly in tech. I find it difficult to justify the current premium to NAV.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-98de2c77-62f2-46da-88eb-af269fb53d42" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28510:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US)</a> “B” shares closed in June in New York at a discount of 3.9% (tightened vs. 5.9% as of end of May) with respect to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:792:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US)</a> “A” shares. Trade: LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR. Target: 2% premium.</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>


Discounts to NAV for our selected European holdcos and DLCs have not shown a clear trend in June.


The report incorporates several SOTP valuations.




The current premium of BHP Group (BHP AU) vs.  Bhp Billiton (BLT LN) at close of June was 23.8% (vs. 21.8% at the end of April), against a 10-year average of 14.7%. I would rather be long the UK plc and short the Aussie Ltd through the US listings.


Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM) is trading at a 42.3% discount to NAV  (down from 47.9% at the end of February). The discount does not seem to be arbitraged lately. Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM), one of its portfolio main assets, is the object of a partial takeover bid; Euskaltel SA (EKT SM) is the object of a full takeover bid, as it has been previously flagged here. Alba has some quality assets and is fundamentally cheap, in my view.


The discount to NAV of Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB) has tightened slightly to 32.7%. There are no catalysts in sight and the discount stubbornly keeps above 30%.


The discount in Heineken Holdings relative to Heineken has widened to 16.4% (vs. 14.4% at the end of April) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years. Recommendation is long Heineken Holdings, short Heineken, and close as soon as it tightens a 2-3%. The upwards trends seems clear by now, and it is not easy to call the top.


Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS) C shares are trading at a 1.1% premium to NAV. The average discount for the last five years for the C shares has been 11.5%.


The discount to NAV of Investor AB (INVEB SS) B shares has remained at the same level as end of May, 8.8% (vs. 17.1% at the end of February).


From my SOTP valuation, Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS) From my SOTP valuation, Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS) B shares traded at an 14.9% premium to NAV at the end of June (vs a 1.6% discount at the end of February). A shares are trading at a c. 40.1% premium to NAV. Until mid-January, the price difference between A and B shares was rather small. The discount of B shares to A shares began to increase my mid January, now it is c. 29.5%; voting rights count again at Kinnevik. Post the Zalando distribution (together with the Millicom distribution), Kinnevik will transform itself in a listed VC, investing mainly in tech. I find it difficult to justify the current premium to NAV.


Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US) “B” shares closed in June in New York at a discount of 3.9% (tightened vs. 5.9% as of end of May) with respect to the Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US) “A” shares. Trade: LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR. Target: 2% premium.




Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: June Report

<div>
<div>
<h3>Trends</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Discounts have generally widened across the European space.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<h3>Interesting situations and trades</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlsberg-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22320:1" rel="noopener">Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC)</a> B shares (with 1/10th of the voting rights of the A shares) are trading at a whopping 19.3% discount (down from 28.4%  on 19 April) vs. the A shares), some demand for illiquid A shares seems to be the explanation. Maintain LONG B shares/short A shares on, if you can get hold of any A shares.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR)</a> exhibited a trend towards a reduction of the discount of preferred shares, until March 2020. The <strong>discount</strong> remains <strong>around the 15% level</strong> (vs. 22.1% by mid-April). The discount is approaching pre-Covid levels. <strong>Maintain long BMW prefs, short common shares</strong> on, with a target of a 12% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuchs-petrolub-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21624:1" rel="noopener">Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR)</a>'s preference shares premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is <strong>22.6%</strong> (down from 29.4% by mid-February and 34.4% in my October report). With over 50% of the ordinary shares, the Fuchs family maintains the majority vote. They have never stated they would consolidate and pride to be #1 among the independent suppliers of lubricants.</p>
<p>Although there is no reason why the voting rights should be specially dear in Fuchs's case, voting rights are still valuable and neither the dividend advantage of the preferred shares nor their being members of several midcap indexes (Prime Standard/MDAX; STOXX Europe 600; DAXplus Familiy 30) justify the large premium, in my view. Maintain the trade <strong>long common/short prefs on, with a 10% target</strong>.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henkel-ag-co-kgaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21646:1" rel="noopener">Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR)</a> shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The <strong>premium</strong> has recently tightened and is now <strong>15.7%</strong> (vs. 16.1% by mid-May).. Maintain the trade <strong>short prefs/long common shares</strong> with a 10% premium target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Voting rights are valuable in a company like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a>. Prefs <strong>discount has widened to 25.5%</strong> (vs. 20.5% by mid-May, 16.6% by mid-April and 31.8% on 18 March, highest levels since November 2009). Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. That said, the ordinary shares are also liquid. The shareholder structure of Volkswagen is stable, and there seems to be no reason why the discount of the prefs should widen. Volkswagen was considering a separate listing of its Porsche sports car brand in a deal that could boost its valuation, according to Bloomberg, but the company seems to have put those plans on ice. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/traton-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28140:1" rel="noopener">Traton SE (8TRA GR)</a>, a subsidiary majority owned by Volkswagen, is squeezing out the minorities (both ordinary and preferred shares) in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/man-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21670:1" rel="noopener">MAN SE (MAN GR).</a> Recommendation is <strong>long prefs/short ords</strong>, with advantage that it can be executed in size and the necessary health warning attached to any trading with Volkswagen share classes, as one can never be completely sure of the Porsche/Piech families' plans. Close soon enough as the discount tightens 200-250 bps.</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danieli-c-officine-meccaniche" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21177:1" rel="noopener">Danieli &amp; C. Officine Meccaniche (DAN IM)</a>:  the mandatory conversion and extraordinary dividend were approved on the shareholders meetings on 28 October. The conversion date is yet to be announced but expected soon (I am aware I have been repeating this since November, but there has no been any further update from Danieli).. Since announcement, the <strong>adjusted spread</strong> has ranged between -5.48% and 7.69%. It is currently <strong>-0.99%</strong>. <strong>Long Danieli ords/short Danieli savings shares, if and when the discount widens</strong>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telecom-italia-sp-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21075:1" rel="noopener">Telecom Italia Sp A (TIT IM)</a> <strong>savings</strong> shares are trading at a <strong>10.2% premium to ordinary shares</strong> (vs. a 7.9% premium by mid-May). The market may think of a conversion of savings into ords à la Buzzi Unicem or Danieli, which makes financial sense as it would save the savings' dividend advantage. That would dilute the voting power of Vivendi (23.943% of the votes). <strong>Short savings/long ords</strong>.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21274:1" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a><strong>B shares are trading at a 35.1% discount</strong> (vs. 36.1% by mid-April and 39.7% by mid-February), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since March 2020 lows, albeit it is taking some time. The Covid-related antitakeover provisions issued by the Spanish Government mean that the voting rights are less valuable now. Also, the Spanish government plans to introduce double voting rights for "loyal" shareholders (those who have kept the shares for at least two years). Moreover, the by-laws contain a poison pill that should significantly reduce the discount in case of a takeover attempt. The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares (traded on Nasdaq), short A shares (traded in Madrid). The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The current <strong>discount</strong> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-copco-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22282:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS)</a> <strong>B shares</strong> vs. A shares is <strong>14.5%</strong> (similar to May and wider than the 13.8% by mid-April) and seems to be on a widening trend.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>On 10 May, Industrivärden divested its entire holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ssab-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22492:1" rel="noopener">SSAB AB (SSABA SS)</a> . Top shareholder is now LKAB (Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Aktiebolag), a government owned Swedish mining company. LKAB is now consolidating its influence in SSAB "in order to take responsibility and ensure that the company continues to have a clear industrial ownership influence at a time when the steel industry is facing major change". On 7 June, LKAB communicated its increased holding in SSAB (16.0% of the votes and 10.5% of the capital). The <strong>discount has widened to 12.4%</strong> (vs. 6.6% by mid-April), due to share purchases from LKAB. It should narrow when LKAB finishes its stake building.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<p>The discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volvo-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22521:1" rel="noopener">Volvo AB (VOLVB SS)</a> B shares has widened and is now trading at a <strong>3.0% discount</strong> to A shares (vs. 0.8% discount by mid-February). It is the highest level since January 2016.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount of non-voting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roche-holding-ag-77bd09c9-b0c2-45ea-98f1-6a7ca01dc9c5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27906:1" rel="noopener">Roche Holding AG (ROG SW)</a> shares has <strong>widened to 6.6%</strong> (it recently reached 8%), a level unreached since November 2011. The Hoffman family and related holds 45% of the voting rights (shareholder pooling agreement) whilst Novartis holds 33.3% of the voting rights.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The <strong>discount</strong> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schroders-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22134:1" rel="noopener">Schroders PLC (SDR LN)</a> is <strong>25.7%,</strong> around the same level as in May (vs. 27.4% by mid-April 30.6% by mid-March and 34.1% by mid-February). I would maintain long non-voting/short voting shares on.</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p>Please read on for table and charts.</p>
</div>



Trends



Discounts have generally widened across the European space.



Interesting situations and trades





Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC) B shares (with 1/10th of the voting rights of the A shares) are trading at a whopping 19.3% discount (down from 28.4%  on 19 April) vs. the A shares), some demand for illiquid A shares seems to be the explanation. Maintain LONG B shares/short A shares on, if you can get hold of any A shares.


Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR) exhibited a trend towards a reduction of the discount of preferred shares, until March 2020. The discount remains around the 15% level (vs. 22.1% by mid-April). The discount is approaching pre-Covid levels. Maintain long BMW prefs, short common shares on, with a target of a 12% discount.


Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR)'s preference shares premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is 22.6% (down from 29.4% by mid-February and 34.4% in my October report). With over 50% of the ordinary shares, the Fuchs family maintains the majority vote. They have never stated they would consolidate and pride to be #1 among the independent suppliers of lubricants.
Although there is no reason why the voting rights should be specially dear in Fuchs's case, voting rights are still valuable and neither the dividend advantage of the preferred shares nor their being members of several midcap indexes (Prime Standard/MDAX; STOXX Europe 600; DAXplus Familiy 30) justify the large premium, in my view. Maintain the trade long common/short prefs on, with a 10% target.


Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR) shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The premium has recently tightened and is now 15.7% (vs. 16.1% by mid-May).. Maintain the trade short prefs/long common shares with a 10% premium target.


Voting rights are valuable in a company like Volkswagen (VOW GR). Prefs discount has widened to 25.5% (vs. 20.5% by mid-May, 16.6% by mid-April and 31.8% on 18 March, highest levels since November 2009). Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. That said, the ordinary shares are also liquid. The shareholder structure of Volkswagen is stable, and there seems to be no reason why the discount of the prefs should widen. Volkswagen was considering a separate listing of its Porsche sports car brand in a deal that could boost its valuation, according to Bloomberg, but the company seems to have put those plans on ice. Traton SE (8TRA GR), a subsidiary majority owned by Volkswagen, is squeezing out the minorities (both ordinary and preferred shares) in MAN SE (MAN GR). Recommendation is long prefs/short ords, with advantage that it can be executed in size and the necessary health warning attached to any trading with Volkswagen share classes, as one can never be completely sure of the Porsche/Piech families' plans. Close soon enough as the discount tightens 200-250 bps.






Danieli &amp; C. Officine Meccaniche (DAN IM):  the mandatory conversion and extraordinary dividend were approved on the shareholders meetings on 28 October. The conversion date is yet to be announced but expected soon (I am aware I have been repeating this since November, but there has no been any further update from Danieli).. Since announcement, the adjusted spread has ranged between -5.48% and 7.69%. It is currently -0.99%. Long Danieli ords/short Danieli savings shares, if and when the discount widens.

Telecom Italia Sp A (TIT IM) savings shares are trading at a 10.2% premium to ordinary shares (vs. a 7.9% premium by mid-May). The market may think of a conversion of savings into ords à la Buzzi Unicem or Danieli, which makes financial sense as it would save the savings' dividend advantage. That would dilute the voting power of Vivendi (23.943% of the votes). Short savings/long ords.





Grifols SA (GRF SM)B shares are trading at a 35.1% discount (vs. 36.1% by mid-April and 39.7% by mid-February), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since March 2020 lows, albeit it is taking some time. The Covid-related antitakeover provisions issued by the Spanish Government mean that the voting rights are less valuable now. Also, the Spanish government plans to introduce double voting rights for "loyal" shareholders (those who have kept the shares for at least two years). Moreover, the by-laws contain a poison pill that should significantly reduce the discount in case of a takeover attempt. The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares (traded on Nasdaq), short A shares (traded in Madrid). The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.


The current discount in Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS) B shares vs. A shares is 14.5% (similar to May and wider than the 13.8% by mid-April) and seems to be on a widening trend.


On 10 May, Industrivärden divested its entire holding in SSAB AB (SSABA SS) . Top shareholder is now LKAB (Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Aktiebolag), a government owned Swedish mining company. LKAB is now consolidating its influence in SSAB "in order to take responsibility and ensure that the company continues to have a clear industrial ownership influence at a time when the steel industry is facing major change". On 7 June, LKAB communicated its increased holding in SSAB (16.0% of the votes and 10.5% of the capital). The discount has widened to 12.4% (vs. 6.6% by mid-April), due to share purchases from LKAB. It should narrow when LKAB finishes its stake building.




The discount in Volvo AB (VOLVB SS) B shares has widened and is now trading at a 3.0% discount to A shares (vs. 0.8% discount by mid-February). It is the highest level since January 2016.


The discount of non-voting Roche Holding AG (ROG SW) shares has widened to 6.6% (it recently reached 8%), a level unreached since November 2011. The Hoffman family and related holds 45% of the voting rights (shareholder pooling agreement) whilst Novartis holds 33.3% of the voting rights.


The discount in Schroders PLC (SDR LN) is 25.7%, around the same level as in May (vs. 27.4% by mid-April 30.6% by mid-March and 34.1% by mid-February). I would maintain long non-voting/short voting shares on.




Please read on for table and charts.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June Report

<div>
<p>Discounts to NAV for our selected European holdcos and DLCs have generally tightened (and premiums to NAV increased) in May.</p>
<p>The report incorporates Q1 releases for Alba and GBL, and several SOTP valuations.</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<p>The current premium of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> vs.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton (BLT LN)</a> at close of May was 18.3% (vs. 21.8% at the end of April), against a 10-year average of 14.7%. I would rather be long the UK plc and short the Aussie Ltd.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/corp-financiera-alba-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21245:1" rel="noopener">Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM)</a> is trading at a <strong>42.8% discount to NAV</strong> (down from 47.9% at the end of February), partly because of its low liquidity. The discount does not seem to be arbitraged lately. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naturgy-energy-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21271:1" rel="noopener">Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)</a>, one of its portfolio main assets, is the object of a partial takeover bid; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/euskaltel-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21263:1" rel="noopener">Euskaltel SA (EKT SM)</a> is the object of a full takeover bid, as it has been previously flagged here. Alba has some quality assets and is fundamentally cheap, in my view.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/groupe-bruxelles-lambert-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21332:1" rel="noopener">Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB)</a> has <strong>widened</strong> to <strong>33%</strong>. There are no catalysts in sight and the discount stubbornly keeps above 30%.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount in Heineken Holdings relative to Heineken has widened to 15.1% (vs. 14.4% at the end of April) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years. Recommendation is long Heineken Holdings, short Heineken.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22395:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)</a> C shares are trading at a <strong>4.8% premium to NAV</strong>. The average discount for the last five years for the C shares has been 11.5%.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The <strong>discount to NAV</strong> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/investor-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22397:1" rel="noopener">Investor AB (INVEB SS)</a> B shares has <strong>tightened to 8.8%</strong> (vs. 17.1% at the end of February).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>From my SOTP valuation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinnevik-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22407:1" rel="noopener">Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS)</a> <strong>B shares are trading at a c. 19% premium to NAV</strong>. A shares are trading at a c. 43% premium to NAV. Until mid-January, the price difference between A and B shares was rather small. The discount of B shares to A shares began to increase my mid January, now it is c. 30%; voting rights count again at Kinnevik. Post the Zalando distribution (together with the Millicom distribution), Kinnevik will transform itself in a listed VC, investing mainly in tech. The market likes it.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-98de2c77-62f2-46da-88eb-af269fb53d42" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28510:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US)</a> “B” shares closed May in New York at a discount of  5.9% (vs. 5.8% as of end of April) with respect to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:792:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US)</a> “A” shares.Trade: LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR. Target: 2% premium.</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>


Discounts to NAV for our selected European holdcos and DLCs have generally tightened (and premiums to NAV increased) in May.
The report incorporates Q1 releases for Alba and GBL, and several SOTP valuations.




The current premium of BHP Group (BHP AU) vs.  Bhp Billiton (BLT LN) at close of May was 18.3% (vs. 21.8% at the end of April), against a 10-year average of 14.7%. I would rather be long the UK plc and short the Aussie Ltd.


Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM) is trading at a 42.8% discount to NAV (down from 47.9% at the end of February), partly because of its low liquidity. The discount does not seem to be arbitraged lately. Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM), one of its portfolio main assets, is the object of a partial takeover bid; Euskaltel SA (EKT SM) is the object of a full takeover bid, as it has been previously flagged here. Alba has some quality assets and is fundamentally cheap, in my view.


The discount of Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB) has widened to 33%. There are no catalysts in sight and the discount stubbornly keeps above 30%.


The discount in Heineken Holdings relative to Heineken has widened to 15.1% (vs. 14.4% at the end of April) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years. Recommendation is long Heineken Holdings, short Heineken.


Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS) C shares are trading at a 4.8% premium to NAV. The average discount for the last five years for the C shares has been 11.5%.


The discount to NAV of Investor AB (INVEB SS) B shares has tightened to 8.8% (vs. 17.1% at the end of February).


From my SOTP valuation, Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS) B shares are trading at a c. 19% premium to NAV. A shares are trading at a c. 43% premium to NAV. Until mid-January, the price difference between A and B shares was rather small. The discount of B shares to A shares began to increase my mid January, now it is c. 30%; voting rights count again at Kinnevik. Post the Zalando distribution (together with the Millicom distribution), Kinnevik will transform itself in a listed VC, investing mainly in tech. The market likes it.


Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US) “B” shares closed May in New York at a discount of  5.9% (vs. 5.8% as of end of April) with respect to the Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US) “A” shares.Trade: LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR. Target: 2% premium.




Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: May Report

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<div><p>Discounts to NAV for our selected European holdcos and DLCs have generally tightened in March. The report incorporates the results for GBL, and several SOTP valuations.</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>The current premium of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> vs.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton (BLT LN)</a> at close of March was 19.5% (vs. 24.6% as of 31 December and 19.5% as of the end of February), against a 10-year average of 14.5%. I would rather be long the UK plc and short the Aussie Ltd. through US listings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/corp-financiera-alba-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21245:1" rel="noopener">Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM)</a> is trading at a 46% discount to NAV, partly because of its low liquidity. The discount does not seem to be arbitraged lately. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naturgy-energy-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21271:1" rel="noopener">Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)</a>, one of its portfolio main assets, is being the object of a partial takeover bid; Euskaltel is the object of a full takeover bid, as it has been previously flagged here. Alba has some quality assets and is fundamentally cheap, in my view.</li>
<li>The discount of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/groupe-bruxelles-lambert-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21332:1" rel="noopener">Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB)</a> has tightened to 31.7% as of end of March (vs. 34.2% as of 26 February). I recommend Long GBL / Short main listed assets (LafargeHolcim, SGS, Pernod Ricard, Adidas and Umicore, which represent c. 70% of NAV).</li>
<li>The discount in Heineken Holdings relative to Heineken has tightened to 12.6% (vs. 15.4% at the end of January) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years. Recommendation is long Heineken Holdings, short Heineken.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22395:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)</a> C shares are trading at a 3.3% discount to NAV (vs. 7.8% at the end of February), the lowest over the last twelve months. I would wait for the discount to widen before entering the trade again.</li>
<li>The discount to NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/investor-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22397:1" rel="noopener">Investor AB (INVEB SS)</a> B shares has tightened to 14.4% (vs. 17.1% at the end of February). Long Investor B, short main assets.</li>
<li>From my SOTP valuation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinnevik-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22407:1" rel="noopener">Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS)</a> B shares are trading at a c. 7% premium to NAV. Post the Zalando distribution (together with the Millicom distribution), Kinnevik will transform itself in a listed VC, investing mainly in tech.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-98de2c77-62f2-46da-88eb-af269fb53d42" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28510:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US)</a> “B” shares closed March in New York at a discount of  6.1% (vs. 4.4% as of 31 December and 5.2% as of end of February) with respect to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:792:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US)</a> “A” shares. Trade: LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR. Target: 2% premium.</li>
</ul></div>

Discounts to NAV for our selected European holdcos and DLCs have generally tightened in March. The report incorporates the results for GBL, and several SOTP valuations.
The current premium of BHP Group (BHP AU) vs.  Bhp Billiton (BLT LN) at close of March was 19.5% (vs. 24.6% as of 31 December and 19.5% as of the end of February), against a 10-year average of 14.5%. I would rather be long the UK plc and short the Aussie Ltd. through US listings.

Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM) is trading at a 46% discount to NAV, partly because of its low liquidity. The discount does not seem to be arbitraged lately. Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM), one of its portfolio main assets, is being the object of a partial takeover bid; Euskaltel is the object of a full takeover bid, as it has been previously flagged here. Alba has some quality assets and is fundamentally cheap, in my view.
The discount of Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB) has tightened to 31.7% as of end of March (vs. 34.2% as of 26 February). I recommend Long GBL / Short main listed assets (LafargeHolcim, SGS, Pernod Ricard, Adidas and Umicore, which represent c. 70% of NAV).
The discount in Heineken Holdings relative to Heineken has tightened to 12.6% (vs. 15.4% at the end of January) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years. Recommendation is long Heineken Holdings, short Heineken.

Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS) C shares are trading at a 3.3% discount to NAV (vs. 7.8% at the end of February), the lowest over the last twelve months. I would wait for the discount to widen before entering the trade again.
The discount to NAV of Investor AB (INVEB SS) B shares has tightened to 14.4% (vs. 17.1% at the end of February). Long Investor B, short main assets.
From my SOTP valuation, Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS) B shares are trading at a c. 7% premium to NAV. Post the Zalando distribution (together with the Millicom distribution), Kinnevik will transform itself in a listed VC, investing mainly in tech.

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US) “B” shares closed March in New York at a discount of  6.1% (vs. 4.4% as of 31 December and 5.2% as of end of February) with respect to the Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US) “A” shares. Trade: LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR. Target: 2% premium.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: March Report

<div>
<p>Discounts to NAV for our selected European holdcos and DLCs have generally widened in February, specially at the end of the month. The report incorporates the results for the Swedish holdcos, as well as for C.F Alba, as well as several SOTPs.</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>The current premium of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> vs.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton (BLT LN)</a> is 19.9% (vs. 24.6% as of 31 December), against a 10-year average of 14.5%. I would rather be long the UK plc and short the Aussie Ltd. through US listings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/corp-financiera-alba-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21245:1" rel="noopener">Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM)</a> is trading at a <strong>47.9% discount to NAV</strong> (up from 44.3% by end of December, but down from 49% at the end of October), partly because of its low liquidity. The discount does not seem to be arbitraged lately. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naturgy-energy-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21271:1" rel="noopener">Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)</a>, one of its portfolio main assets, is being the subject of a partial takeover bid, and Euskaltel may be a candidate to be acquired in any further consolidation in the Spanish telco market. Alba has some quality assets and is fundamentally cheap, in my view.</li>
<li>The discount of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/groupe-bruxelles-lambert-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21332:1" rel="noopener">Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB)</a> has widened to 34.2% as of 26 February (vs. 32.9% as of 30 December). I recommend Long GBL / Short main listed assets (LafargeHolcim, SGS, Pernod Ricard, Adidas and Umicore, which represent c. 75% of NAV).</li>
<li>The discount in Heineken Holdings relative to Heineken has tightened to 12.9% (vs. 15.4% at the end of January) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years. Recommendation is long Heineken Holdings, short Heineken.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22395:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)</a> C shares are trading at a 7.8% discount to NAV (vs. 4.2% at the end of December and 6.7% at the end of November. I would wait for the discount to widen before entering the trade again.</li>
<li>The discount to NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/investor-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22397:1" rel="noopener">Investor AB (INVEB SS)</a> B shares has widened to 17.1% (vs. 13.5% as of 30 December). Long Investor B, short main assets.</li>
<li>From my SOTP valuation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinnevik-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22407:1" rel="noopener">Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS)</a> B shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs a 5.2% premium as of 31 December).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-98de2c77-62f2-46da-88eb-af269fb53d42" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28510:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US)</a> “B” shares closed February in New York at a discount of  5.2% (4.4% as of 31 December) with respect to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:792:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US)</a> “A” shares. Trade: LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR. Target: 2% premium.</li>
</ul>
</div>


Discounts to NAV for our selected European holdcos and DLCs have generally widened in February, specially at the end of the month. The report incorporates the results for the Swedish holdcos, as well as for C.F Alba, as well as several SOTPs.



The current premium of BHP Group (BHP AU) vs.  Bhp Billiton (BLT LN) is 19.9% (vs. 24.6% as of 31 December), against a 10-year average of 14.5%. I would rather be long the UK plc and short the Aussie Ltd. through US listings.

Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM) is trading at a 47.9% discount to NAV (up from 44.3% by end of December, but down from 49% at the end of October), partly because of its low liquidity. The discount does not seem to be arbitraged lately. Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM), one of its portfolio main assets, is being the subject of a partial takeover bid, and Euskaltel may be a candidate to be acquired in any further consolidation in the Spanish telco market. Alba has some quality assets and is fundamentally cheap, in my view.
The discount of Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB) has widened to 34.2% as of 26 February (vs. 32.9% as of 30 December). I recommend Long GBL / Short main listed assets (LafargeHolcim, SGS, Pernod Ricard, Adidas and Umicore, which represent c. 75% of NAV).
The discount in Heineken Holdings relative to Heineken has tightened to 12.9% (vs. 15.4% at the end of January) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years. Recommendation is long Heineken Holdings, short Heineken.

Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS) C shares are trading at a 7.8% discount to NAV (vs. 4.2% at the end of December and 6.7% at the end of November. I would wait for the discount to widen before entering the trade again.
The discount to NAV of Investor AB (INVEB SS) B shares has widened to 17.1% (vs. 13.5% as of 30 December). Long Investor B, short main assets.
From my SOTP valuation, Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS) B shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs a 5.2% premium as of 31 December).

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US) “B” shares closed February in New York at a discount of  5.2% (4.4% as of 31 December) with respect to the Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US) “A” shares. Trade: LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR. Target: 2% premium.



Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: February Report

Sweden

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

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Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)

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Discounts to NAV for European holdcos and DLCs have generally widened in February. The report incorporates some results, as well as several SOTPs.

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