Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), SMC Global

SMC Online

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Indian Oil Corporation consolidated net sales increased 90.82% to Rs 115502.51 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Sales of Petroleum Products segment has gone up 74.83% to Rs 1,50,058.43 crore (accounting for 93.79% of total sales). Sales of Other Business Activities segment rose 92.40% to Rs 4,113.31 crore (accounting for 2.57% of total sales). Sales of...
<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Indian Oil Corporation consolidated net sales increased 90.82% to Rs 115502.51 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Sales of Petroleum Products segment has gone up 74.83% to Rs 1,50,058.43 crore (accounting for 93.79% of total sales). Sales of Other Business Activities segment rose 92.40% to Rs 4,113.31 crore (accounting for 2.57% of total sales). Sales of...
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Oil Corporation: Inventory Gains and Better Petrochemical Margins Boost Profit

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily NTPC: Generation/sales increased 19.2%/19.3% YoY to 71.7bn/66.6bn unit in Q1FY22 on the back of demand recovery. Coal PAF, however, declined in Q1FY22 to 94% vs 96% YoY, but coal PLF was up at 70% in Q1FY22 vs 58.2% YoY. Underrecovery in Q1FY22 came in at INR1.9bn. After adjusting for previous periods and one-off items, adjusted PAT came in at INR31.6bn above our estimate. Debtors (&gt;45 days) increased to INR90bn vs INR65bn QoQ during the second corona wave. NTPC plans to add 15GW of RES capacity by FY24 and another 45GW by FY32.
<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

HSIE Results Daily NTPC: Generation/sales increased 19.2%/19.3% YoY to 71.7bn/66.6bn unit in Q1FY22 on the back of demand recovery. Coal PAF, however, declined in Q1FY22 to 94% vs 96% YoY, but coal PLF was up at 70% in Q1FY22 vs 58.2% YoY. Underrecovery in Q1FY22 came in at INR1.9bn. After adjusting for previous periods and one-off items, adjusted PAT came in at INR31.6bn above our estimate. Debtors (&gt;45 days) increased to INR90bn vs INR65bn QoQ during the second corona wave. NTPC plans to add 15GW of RES capacity by FY24 and another 45GW by FY32.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: NTPC, IOC, Britannia and More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.The review period runs from February to July and we are nearing the last leg of data that will be used to determine the inclusions and exclusions. We currently see no change to the index, though that could change if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)</a> and/or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment, or if there is a big rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a>.20 stocks have been added to the F&amp;O segment so far this year and there is a possibility that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> and/or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)</a> are included in the segment in the next month.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a>'s average free float market cap is 1.41 times the average free float market cap of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. To reach the 1.5 times average free float market cap threshold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> will need to outperform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a> by 32% on average over the rest of the review period.If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)</a> are added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>, the impact of passive buying will be high at over 7 days of ADV. The impact on the potential deletions is around 3 days of ADV to sell.

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.The review period runs from February to July and we are nearing the last leg of data that will be used to determine the inclusions and exclusions. We currently see no change to the index, though that could change if Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) and/or Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment, or if there is a big rally in Info Edge India (INFOE IN).20 stocks have been added to the F&amp;O segment so far this year and there is a possibility that Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) and/or Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) are included in the segment in the next month.Info Edge India (INFOE IN)'s average free float market cap is 1.41 times the average free float market cap of Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). To reach the 1.5 times average free float market cap threshold, Info Edge India (INFOE IN) will need to outperform Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) by 32% on average over the rest of the review period.If Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) or Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) are added to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX), the impact of passive buying will be high at over 7 days of ADV. The impact on the potential deletions is around 3 days of ADV to sell.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Catalysts for Change

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.More than a third of the way through the review period that runs from February to July, we see one possible change to the index with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. There could be more changes if some large stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> does not make the cut for index inclusion following the 10% reduction in its free float following the open offer.Passive funds benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> will need to trade around 3 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. Plus there will be flow from active funds and from cash and carry baskets on the index.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> trades at a valuation premium to its regional peers, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a> trades at a discount to its domestic peers.The big event to watch for is the potential inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> in the F&amp;O segment that will open the door for index inclusion.

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.More than a third of the way through the review period that runs from February to July, we see one possible change to the index with Info Edge India (INFOE IN) replacing Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). There could be more changes if some large stocks like Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) does not make the cut for index inclusion following the 10% reduction in its free float following the open offer.Passive funds benchmarked to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) will need to trade around 3 days of ADV on Info Edge India (INFOE IN) and Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). Plus there will be flow from active funds and from cash and carry baskets on the index.Info Edge India (INFOE IN) trades at a valuation premium to its regional peers, while Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) trades at a discount to its domestic peers.The big event to watch for is the potential inclusion of Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) in the F&amp;O segment that will open the door for index inclusion.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Info Edge Could Replace IOC

India

Indian Oil Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil, in addition to manufacturing petroleum & petroleum products. The Company's products include lubricating oils, liquid petroleum gas, aviation turbine fuels, greases, wax, bitumen and asphalt. Indian Oil Corporation has retail outlets throughout India. The greatest majority shareholding in the Company is held by Indian Government.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

Indian Oil Corporation: Inventory Gains and Better Petrochemical Margins Boost Profit

Indian Oil Corporation consolidated net sales increased 90.82% to Rs 115502.51 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Sales of Petroleum Products...

SMC Online

HSIE Results Daily: NTPC, IOC, Britannia and More

NTPC: Generation/sales increased 19.2%/19.3% YoY to 71.7bn/66.6bn unit in Q1FY22 on the back of demand recovery. Coal PAF, however, declined in...

HDFC Securities

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Catalysts for Change

There are no changes expected to the NIFTY Index at the September rebalance. However, the inclusion of DMART and/or Adani Green in the F&O segment...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Info Edge Could Replace IOC

We see one potential changes to the NIFTY50 index at the September review. Adani Green and Avenue Supermarts could join the index if listed F&O are...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)