Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX +1% as Cyclicals rose on Congress Debt Limit Deal; NFP in focus &amp; implication for Fed June pause; Dollar General -20%..US consumer headwinds; Boeing scraps next-gen aircraft.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.8% Cash; Stronger Yen but expect strong equity open on US rally; Foreigners bought Equities for 9th week; Panasonic sees EV battery Sales at 2.5tril by 2030</li>
<li>NUGGET. The 2nd round of Off-shore wind auctions will conclude at the end of June. This will mark the (re) start of Japan's aggressive push for wind.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX +1% as Cyclicals rose on Congress Debt Limit Deal; NFP in focus &amp; implication for Fed June pause; Dollar General -20%..US consumer headwinds; Boeing scraps next-gen aircraft.
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.8% Cash; Stronger Yen but expect strong equity open on US rally; Foreigners bought Equities for 9th week; Panasonic sees EV battery Sales at 2.5tril by 2030
NUGGET. The 2nd round of Off-shore wind auctions will conclude at the end of June. This will mark the (re) start of Japan's aggressive push for wind.


Ohayo Japan |RALLY PAUSE ?..Not; Debt Deal Spurs Tech Rebound; NUGGET: JP Off-Shore Wind-Set to BLOW

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> reports FY2022 results on 12 May. Since the announcement of Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share, there have been no progress updates. </li>
<li>The spread to the offer is currently 4.2%, suggesting a reasonable probability of success. However, the offer's success ultimately depends on shareholder backing, particularly from the activists on the register.</li>
<li>Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers.</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) reports FY2022 results on 12 May. Since the announcement of Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share, there have been no progress updates. 
The spread to the offer is currently 4.2%, suggesting a reasonable probability of success. However, the offer's success ultimately depends on shareholder backing, particularly from the activists on the register.
Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We look for the new MTP to present a growth outlook in the Aerospace division driven by a recovery in the civilian aircraft market</li>
<li>IHI is a key beneficiary of structural growth themes of higher defense spending and energy transition</li>
<li>We believe that the market has been overly concerned about a growth plateau. At 9x TEV / NTM EBIT, the stock is a bargain versus global peers</li>
</ul>


We look for the new MTP to present a growth outlook in the Aerospace division driven by a recovery in the civilian aircraft market
IHI is a key beneficiary of structural growth themes of higher defense spending and energy transition
We believe that the market has been overly concerned about a growth plateau. At 9x TEV / NTM EBIT, the stock is a bargain versus global peers


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), total global military expenditure increased by 3.7% in real terms in 2022, to reach a new high of $2,240bn.</li>
<li>A number of European states significantly increased their military spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Elsewhere, Japan’s 2022 military spending accounts for 1.1% of GDP, the highest level since 1960.</li>
<li>South Korea had four companies inside the world’s top 100 arms manufacturers in 2021. These conglomerates are expected to move up the ranking in 2022. </li>
</ul>


According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), total global military expenditure increased by 3.7% in real terms in 2022, to reach a new high of $2,240bn.
A number of European states significantly increased their military spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Elsewhere, Japan’s 2022 military spending accounts for 1.1% of GDP, the highest level since 1960.
South Korea had four companies inside the world’s top 100 arms manufacturers in 2021. These conglomerates are expected to move up the ranking in 2022. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> announced a pre-conditional tender offer by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder at JPY4,620 per share, a 9.7% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The special committee opines that the offer is the best price that can be expected today, which sounds like we are recommending the offer as it is the only one.</li>
<li>The offer has several negatives: a 14% price reduction during the process, below the undisturbed price, below the mid-point IFA DCF range and no serious effort on Plan B. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder at JPY4,620 per share, a 9.7% premium to the last close price.
The special committee opines that the offer is the best price that can be expected today, which sounds like we are recommending the offer as it is the only one.
The offer has several negatives: a 14% price reduction during the process, below the undisturbed price, below the mid-point IFA DCF range and no serious effort on Plan B. 


Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP’s JPY4,620 Tender Offer, Now for the Really Hard Part

Japan

IHI Corporation manufactures heavy machinery. The Company produces aircraft jet engines, rocket propulsion systems, and ships for military and commercial use. Ishikawajima-Harima also constructs petroleum refineries and nuclear power plants.

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IHI Corp (7013 JP)

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Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the...

Arun George

Ihi (7013) | Multiple Engines for Growth

We believe that the market has been overly concerned about a growth plateau at IHI. At 9x TEV / NTM EBIT, the stock is a bargain versus global peers

Mark Chadwick

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David Blennerhassett

Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP’s JPY4,620 Tender Offer, Now for the Really Hard Part

The shares will react positively initially. However, it should start drifting again once it becomes apparent that there is a considerable risk that...

Arun George

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