Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Merchants China Direct Investments / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Activist Argyle Street's approach to closed-end investment company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> (CMCDI) has a certain David Webb-like quality.</li>
<li>Apart from the deep value angle, the analysis of director Elizabeth Kan's potential conflict of interest is particularly insightful. Argle will vote against Kan's re-election at the 20th June AGM</li>
<li>Given this upcoming vote, as I've done with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano (709 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> previously, it's useful to investigate the lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports.</li>
</ul>


Activist Argyle Street's approach to closed-end investment company China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI) has a certain David Webb-like quality.
Apart from the deep value angle, the analysis of director Elizabeth Kan's potential conflict of interest is particularly insightful. Argle will vote against Kan's re-election at the 20th June AGM
Given this upcoming vote, as I've done with Giordano (709 HK) and L'Occitane (973 HK) previously, it's useful to investigate the lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports.


CMCDI (133 HK): AGM Outcome May Provide Another Leg-Up

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AI software company SenseTime’s share price dropped more than 50% over the last one week with the expiry of lock-up period as pre-investors of the company took some profits.  </li>
<li>The company was placed in an investment blacklist by the US government prior to the IPO which forced to launch the IPO without investors from the US.</li>
<li>The company also priced the IPO at the bottom of the price range and despite all of this, shares quickly went up to HK$8.20 from IPO price of US$3.85.</li>
</ul>


AI software company SenseTime’s share price dropped more than 50% over the last one week with the expiry of lock-up period as pre-investors of the company took some profits.  
The company was placed in an investment blacklist by the US government prior to the IPO which forced to launch the IPO without investors from the US.
The company also priced the IPO at the bottom of the price range and despite all of this, shares quickly went up to HK$8.20 from IPO price of US$3.85.


SenseTime: Shares Fall with Lock-Up Expiry; Further Downside with More Selling at the Next Expiry

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

China Merchants China Direct Investments / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> (CMCDI) has (belatedly) published notices of two extraordinary general meetings, both of which will take place on 29 November 2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1108/2024110800011.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">One</a> is for the renewal of the investment management agreement (IMA) for another three years, to be held at 10am. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1108/2024110800021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second EGM</a>, requisitioned by Argyle Street Management, to be held at 11am, calls for a one-year IMA term limit, and the removal of Elizabeth Kan as an executive director. </li>
</ul>



China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI) has (belatedly) published notices of two extraordinary general meetings, both of which will take place on 29 November 2024. 

One is for the renewal of the investment management agreement (IMA) for another three years, to be held at 10am. 
The second EGM, requisitioned by Argyle Street Management, to be held at 11am, calls for a one-year IMA term limit, and the removal of Elizabeth Kan as an executive director. 


<ul>
<li>On the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0927/2024092701187.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">27th September</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> (CMCDI) teased a share buyback and a special dividend. But as of today. no firm details have been forthcoming. </li>
<li>CMCDI has also now offered to reduce management fees by 25 basis points in the new management agreement, which will be voted on  by independent shareholders in November/December.</li>
<li>This concession does not go far enough. Especially when 45% of the management fees are received by founder Victor Chu. </li>
</ul>


On the 27th September, China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI) teased a share buyback and a special dividend. But as of today. no firm details have been forthcoming. 
CMCDI has also now offered to reduce management fees by 25 basis points in the new management agreement, which will be voted on  by independent shareholders in November/December.
This concession does not go far enough. Especially when 45% of the management fees are received by founder Victor Chu. 


CMCDI (133 HK): Concessions Don't Go Far Enough

China

IFLYTEK Co., Ltd. specializes in speech intelligence and artificial intelligence technology.  The company also develops chip product, voice messaging software and e-government system integration software.

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IFlytek Co Ltd A (002230 CH)

CMCDI (133 HK): AGM Outcome May Provide Another Leg-Up

CMCDI is cheap. If small, illiquid names, with a activism angle are your thing, pick up shares here. Keep an eye on the AGM. If Kan is booted, this...

David Blennerhassett

SenseTime: Shares Fall with Lock-Up Expiry; Further Downside with More Selling at the Next Expiry

SenseTime’s share price dropped more than 50% over the last one week with the expiry of lock-up period. Some shareholders have agreed to extend...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

CMCDI (133 HK)'s EGM Double-Header

If shareholders want exposure to CMB and iFlytek, they can buy directly, as opposed to a heavily discounted illiquid name. CMCDI's large NAV...

David Blennerhassett

CMCDI (133 HK): Concessions Don't Go Far Enough

If small, illiquid names, with a activism angle are your bent, get involved in this deep valued closed-end fund around here.

David Blennerhassett

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