Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> merger will result in capping and funding changes on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> constituents.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.</li>
</ul>


The HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) / HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) merger will result in capping and funding changes on the Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) constituents.
We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.
The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

IDFC First Bank Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 22% YoY/ 3% QoQ) in Q4FY23, primarily driven by home loans (up 39% YoY/ 10% QoQ), wheels (up 34% YoY/ 7% QoQ) and rural finance (up 48% YoY/ 18% QoQ) with significant growth across the segments.</li><li>Healthy growth in advances and NIM at 6.41% aided NII growth of 35/20% YoY/QoQ.</li><li>Other income reported strong growth of 68/32% YoY/QoQ, largely led by growth in the fee income from the bank’s retail products.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 22% YoY/ 3% QoQ) in Q4FY23, primarily driven by home loans (up 39% YoY/ 10% QoQ), wheels (up 34% YoY/ 7% QoQ) and rural finance (up 48% YoY/ 18% QoQ) with significant growth across the segments.Healthy growth in advances and NIM at 6.41% aided NII growth of 35/20% YoY/QoQ.Other income reported strong growth of 68/32% YoY/QoQ, largely led by growth in the fee income from the bank’s retail products.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Beat Across Parameters; Growth Momentum to Continue

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We expect the banks under our coverage to mirror the strong systemic credit growth, thereby delivering a robust ~17% YoY credit growth in Q4FY23.</li><li>On a segmental basis at a systemic level, consumer durables/personal loans/credit card outstanding have shown a robust growth of 39/21/30% YoY respectively.</li><li>Banks that have so far reported their provisional numbers for the quarter have witnessed a pick-up deposit growth, led by TD growth outpacing CASA deposit growth. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect the banks under our coverage to mirror the strong systemic credit growth, thereby delivering a robust ~17% YoY credit growth in Q4FY23.On a segmental basis at a systemic level, consumer durables/personal loans/credit card outstanding have shown a robust growth of 39/21/30% YoY respectively.Banks that have so far reported their provisional numbers for the quarter have witnessed a pick-up deposit growth, led by TD growth outpacing CASA deposit growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bfsi Q4fy23 Result Preview – yet Another Strong Quarter!

<ul>
<li>The lock-up on nearly 9.4bn shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> expires on 13 March. Most of that is from the banks that helped in the recapitalisation in March 2020.</li>
<li>There will be forced sellers as soon as the lock-up ends, and there will be other sellers that will want to sell.</li>
<li>The forced and discretionary selling will be offset to a very small extent by inflows from passive trackers in May/June as the free float for the stock increases.</li>
</ul>


The lock-up on nearly 9.4bn shares of Yes Bank (YES IN) expires on 13 March. Most of that is from the banks that helped in the recapitalisation in March 2020.
There will be forced sellers as soon as the lock-up ends, and there will be other sellers that will want to sell.
The forced and discretionary selling will be offset to a very small extent by inflows from passive trackers in May/June as the free float for the stock increases.


YES Bank Lock-Up Expiry: Forced Sellers, Overhang & Index Implications

India

Bank of India, through its subsidiaries, provides corporate, commercial, personal banking, retail, rural, and development banking.  The Group specializes its services towards corporate and medium businesses, in addition to upmarket retail customers.

Central Bank Of India is a full service commercial bank. The Bank's services include taking deposits, lending services, and investing. Central bank operates branches throughout India.

Federal Bank Limited operates branches and regional offices throughout India. The Bank offers a wide range of financial services, including merchant banking, international banking and foreign exchange, leasing facilities, money markets and agricultural advances. The Bank also provides lending for hi-tech agricultural and government sponsored schemes.

Bank of Maharashtra Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Bank of Maharashtra also sponsors regional rural banks jointly with the Central Government and State Government.

AU Small Finance Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank offers financial products and services such as savings and current accounts, term deposits, debit cards, insurance, government banking, retail loans, and microfinance lending. AU Small Finance Bank serves customers in India.

AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN)

Punjab & Sind Bank is a commercial bank. The Bank offers its customers a wide range of banking products and services.

UCO Bank provides a full range of banking services throughout India. UCO Bank operates over 1,700 banking branches in India, as well as four branches in overseas locations.

YES BANK Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, trade finance, corporate, and business banking services. YES BANK serves the food and agribusiness, life sciences, healthcare, biotechnology, telecommunications, media, information technology, and infrastructure development industries in India.

Indian Bank is a full service bank owned by the Government of India. The Bank offers a wide range of services including a foreign currency banking unit at Colombo and specialized overseas branches at Chennai, Bangalore, and Mumbai exclusively for handling foreign exchange  transactions arising out of export, import, remittances and non resident Indian business.

Bandhan Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank provides accounts checking, savings deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet banking services. Bandhan Bank serves customers in India.

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. is a holding company for Pinnacle National Bank. The Bank operates as a community bank emphasizing personal banking relationships with individuals and businesses located in its primary service area, which is comprised of the metropolitan Nashville, Tennessee area and surrounding counties.

Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited is a state-owned commercial bank offering various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage loans, as well as provident fund management, foreign exchange, and international trade financing services.  The Bank is majority owned by the Financial Institutions Development Fund.

Wintrust Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company providing community-based banking services in various suburbs of Chicago, Illinois.  The Banks provide a variety of commercial and personal financial services to individuals, businesses, local governmental units, and institutions.  Wintrust also has a financing services subsidiary and a trust subsidiary.

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company offers commercial and investment banking services. The Bank's business activities include borrowing and lending, trade finance, remittances, treasury, investment banking and savings.

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade accepts deposits and offers commercial banking services.  The bank offers corporate and consumer loans; insurance; securities and derivatives brokerage; lease financing; money transfer; credit cards; and other services

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade (CTG VN)

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd. provides various types of personal and corporate banking and financial services.  The Company's services including deposits, loans and bonds, domestic clearing, bank card, bill discounting, agent distribution, cashing and underwriting government bonds, guarantees, and payments and insurance agency .

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK)

Taishin Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking business, such as deposits, loans, discount bills, guarantees, remittances, and foreign exchange transactions.

The Chiba Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Chiba Prefecture. The Bank offers general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions. The Chiba Bank also develops software and provides financial services such as leasing, securities brokerage, letter of credit, and credit cards.

Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. is the holding company for Prosperity Bank. The Bank attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate a variety of commercial and consumer loans. Prosperity Bank operates in the greater Houston metropolitan area and neighboring counties in Texas.

IDFC First Bank Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers fixed deposits, debit cards, savings account, cash management, and other services. IDFC Bank serves its customers in India.

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IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

HDFC/HDFCB Merger: Impact on Bank Nifty

The HDFC/HDFCB merger will result in a one-way turnover of around 8.4% for the Nifty Bank Index resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m...

Brian Freitas

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Beat Across Parameters; Growth Momentum to Continue

IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 22% YoY/ 3% QoQ) in Q4FY23, primarily driven by home loans (up 39% YoY/ 10% QoQ), wheels (up 34%...

Axis Direct

Bfsi Q4fy23 Result Preview – yet Another Strong Quarter!

We expect the banks under our coverage to mirror the strong systemic credit growth, thereby delivering a robust ~17% YoY credit growth in Q4FY23.

Axis Direct

YES Bank Lock-Up Expiry: Forced Sellers, Overhang & Index Implications

Over 9bn shares of YES Bank unlock next week. There will be forced selling from local passive trackers, overhang from the banks that helped recap...

Brian Freitas

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