Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).</li>
<li>Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>As a part of the circular, the RBI has announced an increase in risk weight to 125% from the current 100% for all consumer credit exposure of commercial banks – both existing and new.</li><li>This will include personal loans but exclude housing, vehicle, and education loans as well as loans against gold and gold jewellery.</li><li>The regulator also increased the risk weight for exposure of consumer credit exposure of NBFCs (outstanding as well as new) categorised as retail loans from the current 100% to 125%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As a part of the circular, the RBI has announced an increase in risk weight to 125% from the current 100% for all consumer credit exposure of commercial banks – both existing and new.This will include personal loans but exclude housing, vehicle, and education loans as well as loans against gold and gold jewellery.The regulator also increased the risk weight for exposure of consumer credit exposure of NBFCs (outstanding as well as new) categorised as retail loans from the current 100% to 125%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BFSI Sector Update - RBI Regulation on Risk Weight

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>At present, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX index. For the BSE 100 and BSE 200 indices I see six and five changes respectively.</li>
<li>Some of these changes are different from those expected in my last insight. However, the changes expected in this insight will be my final expectations for the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
At present, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX index. For the BSE 100 and BSE 200 indices I see six and five changes respectively.
Some of these changes are different from those expected in my last insight. However, the changes expected in this insight will be my final expectations for the December 2023 Rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

Equity Bottom-Up

IDFC First Bank Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 26.1% YoY/ 6.8% QoQ) in Q2FY24, primarily driven by home loans (up 26% YoY/ 6% QoQ), wheels (up 41% YoY/ 9% QoQ) and rural finance (up 51% YoY/ 10% QoQ) with significant growth across the segments.</li><li>With NIM remaining flat at 6.32% and healthy growth in advances, NII reported robust growth of 31.6/5.5% YoY/QoQ.</li><li>Other Income reported a strong growth of 34.7/1.1% YoY/QoQ, largely led by growth in the fee income from the bank’s retail products.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 26.1% YoY/ 6.8% QoQ) in Q2FY24, primarily driven by home loans (up 26% YoY/ 6% QoQ), wheels (up 41% YoY/ 9% QoQ) and rural finance (up 51% YoY/ 10% QoQ) with significant growth across the segments.With NIM remaining flat at 6.32% and healthy growth in advances, NII reported robust growth of 31.6/5.5% YoY/QoQ.Other Income reported a strong growth of 34.7/1.1% YoY/QoQ, largely led by growth in the fee income from the bank’s retail products.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Balance Sheet Growing Sustainably

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> released its first results since its amalgamation. This can make comparatives difficult where historicals are not adjusted, except for some QoQ items. </li>
<li>We use Dupont Analysis to better understand how the newly amalgamated bank looks now compared with the past, which generally shows a more profitable bank at the core.  </li>
<li>Credit costs, tax expenses are also positives, with the former improving 27bps YoY and the latter improving 23bps YoY. Investment income is a major positive driver in Sep 23 quarter.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) released its first results since its amalgamation. This can make comparatives difficult where historicals are not adjusted, except for some QoQ items. 
We use Dupont Analysis to better understand how the newly amalgamated bank looks now compared with the past, which generally shows a more profitable bank at the core.  
Credit costs, tax expenses are also positives, with the former improving 27bps YoY and the latter improving 23bps YoY. Investment income is a major positive driver in Sep 23 quarter.


HDFC Bank - 1st Results After Amalgamation | Dupont Analysis For Comparatives | Credit Cost Decline

India

IDFC First Bank Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers fixed deposits, debit cards, savings account, cash management, and other services. IDFC Bank serves its customers in India.

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IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

BFSI Sector Update - RBI Regulation on Risk Weight

As a part of the circular, the RBI has announced an increase in risk weight to 125% from the current 100% for all consumer credit exposure of...

Axis Direct

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

The BSE SENSEX and BSE 100 index changes for Dec 23 could be announced in a few days. This might be good time to revisit Quiddity's final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Balance Sheet Growing Sustainably

IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 26.1% YoY/ 6.8% QoQ) in Q2FY24, primarily driven by home loans (up 26% YoY/ 6% QoQ)

Axis Direct

HDFC Bank - 1st Results After Amalgamation | Dupont Analysis For Comparatives | Credit Cost Decline

Fist earnings results since amalgamation and they are strong. Dupont Analysis may be best way to view how bank is changing, where historicals are...

Daniel Tabbush

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NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

BFSI Sector Update - RBI Regulation on Risk Weight

As a part of the circular, the RBI has announced an increase in risk weight to 125% from the current 100% for all consumer credit exposure of...

Axis Direct

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

The BSE SENSEX and BSE 100 index changes for Dec 23 could be announced in a few days. This might be good time to revisit Quiddity's final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Balance Sheet Growing Sustainably

IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 26.1% YoY/ 6.8% QoQ) in Q2FY24, primarily driven by home loans (up 26% YoY/ 6% QoQ)

Axis Direct

HDFC Bank - 1st Results After Amalgamation | Dupont Analysis For Comparatives | Credit Cost Decline

Fist earnings results since amalgamation and they are strong. Dupont Analysis may be best way to view how bank is changing, where historicals are...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank