Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)</a> announced a new buyback to start when the then-existing one had not yet been completed. This is a pattern the last few years.</li>
<li>On Tuesday, Idemitsu announced the method. Shareholder structure means there is pressure here, and its major peer sees buyback pressure drop imminently. </li>
<li>Be aware of tilts and timing, and what might come in May.</li>
</ul>


In February, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) announced a new buyback to start when the then-existing one had not yet been completed. This is a pattern the last few years.
On Tuesday, Idemitsu announced the method. Shareholder structure means there is pressure here, and its major peer sees buyback pressure drop imminently. 
Be aware of tilts and timing, and what might come in May.


Idemitsu (5019) - Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing

<ul>
<li>Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>. It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. </li>
<li>The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. </li>
<li>Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.</li>
</ul>


Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out Macromill, Inc (3978 JP). It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. 
The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. 
Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.


CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a>'s cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Mizuho had a stake over US$100m in at least 34 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$7bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)'s cross-shareholding.
Mizuho had a stake over US$100m in at least 34 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$7bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Mizuho Cross-Shareholding - US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals leave those supplies more exposed to impact of higher feedstock costs at a time when demand faces seasonal rise.</li><li>FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs Singapore gasoil.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices.Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals leave those supplies more exposed to impact of higher feedstock costs at a time when demand faces seasonal rise.FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs Singapore gasoil.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 24 March

<ul><li>Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.</li><li>Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.</li><li>Outperformance of Europe base oils prices vs prices in US and Asia points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals in Europe than in those other markets.</li></ul>

Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.Outperformance of Europe base oils prices vs prices in US and Asia points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals in Europe than in those other markets.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 March

Japan

Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. explores, imports, refines, and distributes petroleum and its related products.  The Company also manufactures and sells petrochemical products.

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Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)

Idemitsu (5019) - Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing

Idemitsu announced a decent-sized buyback. It is 20+% of Max Real World Float though crossholders may start selling next FY. There is timing to a...

Travis Lundy

CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

The Macromill (3978) Tender Offer ends next week on the 26th. So far it has not traded below terms a single time, and hasn't traded within 1% of...

Travis Lundy

Mizuho Cross-Shareholding - US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)'s cross-shareholding.

Sumeet Singh

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 24 March

Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices. Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025. Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia...

Base Oil News

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