Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div>In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a few positions, especially where there are gains and the price ratios are at turning points.</div><div>
These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.
These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.
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In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a few positions, especially where there are gains and the price ratios are at turning points.
These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.
These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.


In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* It Just Keeps Getting Worse: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) [PNB] reported net income of INR 5.1 bn, declining INR 1.1 bn (18.5%) linked quarter. Three factors drove the poor result: a) net interest income declined INR 627 mn (0.8%) despite loan growth of 1.2%, as the NIM declined 9 bp to 2.93%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 5.8 bn (14.0%). Despite the increase, provisioins still fell short given the acerating level of credit risk; and c) a 10.6% linked quarter increase in PNB’s tax rate to 47.2%, which detracted INR 1.0 bn from the bottom-line; and*Credit Risk Leads to Capital Shortfall: Inclusive of the INR 9.6 bn NCO, we find that PNB’s level of net new NPLs actually increased INR 82.6 bn or 33.3% on an annualized basis. While we have very little confidence in PNB’s reporting of problem assets at this stage, we take their word for current NPLs and find that at a minimum loss reserves are light by at least INR 730 mn  - or approximately 100% of stated book value. This is without accounting for the delayed or backlog provisions associated fraud accounts and ageing provisions to be complete in FY 1H21.

* It Just Keeps Getting Worse: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) [PNB] reported net income of INR 5.1 bn, declining INR 1.1 bn (18.5%) linked quarter. Three factors drove the poor result: a) net interest income declined INR 627 mn (0.8%) despite loan growth of 1.2%, as the NIM declined 9 bp to 2.93%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 5.8 bn (14.0%). Despite the increase, provisioins still fell short given the acerating level of credit risk; and c) a 10.6% linked quarter increase in PNB’s tax rate to 47.2%, which detracted INR 1.0 bn from the bottom-line; and*Credit Risk Leads to Capital Shortfall: Inclusive of the INR 9.6 bn NCO, we find that PNB’s level of net new NPLs actually increased INR 82.6 bn or 33.3% on an annualized basis. While we have very little confidence in PNB’s reporting of problem assets at this stage, we take their word for current NPLs and find that at a minimum loss reserves are light by at least INR 730 mn  - or approximately 100% of stated book value. This is without accounting for the delayed or backlog provisions associated fraud accounts and ageing provisions to be complete in FY 1H21.  

*Weakened Results: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB.IN) [KMB] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 18.5 bn, declining INR 3.3 bn (15.2%) linked quarter. Results were challenged by two factors: a) an INR 2.3 bn (62.5%) increase in loss provisions which still appears light given the continued and accelerated breakdown in credit quality; and b) an INR 1.9 bn (9.2%) increase in costs led by a 14.0% increase in other operating expenses; and*Credit Risks Substantially Increasing: While KMB’s metrics were not nearly as ugly as Yes Bank’s (YES.IN), KMB’s credit break is tracking the financial sector - which is not exhibiting any sign of recovery. By our calculation, we find that both net new NPLs and impaired loans increased excessively with annualized growth rates of 122.8% and 143.2%, respectively. Given the worsening of KMB’s credit metrics and current weak reserve cover, we find that reserves at FY 3Q21 fall short by INR 78 bn - about three quarter of stated PBT.

*Weakened Results: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB.IN) [KMB] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 18.5 bn, declining INR 3.3 bn (15.2%) linked quarter. Results were challenged by two factors: a) an INR 2.3 bn (62.5%) increase in loss provisions which still appears light given the continued and accelerated breakdown in credit quality; and b) an INR 1.9 bn (9.2%) increase in costs led by a 14.0% increase in other operating expenses; and*Credit Risks Substantially Increasing: While KMB’s metrics were not nearly as ugly as Yes Bank’s (YES.IN), KMB’s credit break is tracking the financial sector - which is not exhibiting any sign of recovery. By our calculation, we find that both net new NPLs and impaired loans increased excessively with annualized growth rates of 122.8% and 143.2%, respectively. Given the worsening of KMB’s credit metrics and current weak reserve cover, we find that reserves at FY 3Q21 fall short by INR 78 bn - about three quarter of stated PBT.

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Credit Falling Off Of A Cliff

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-prudential-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23608:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN)</a> (IPru Life) reporting improvement in long-term persistency ratios, there are worrying examples of brazen mis-selling of life insurance policies by the company through its corporate agent, Angel Financial Advisors and even its parent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a>. The cases of two 21-year old customers reveal the state of underwriting at IPru Life: <a href="https://youtu.be/Qjyb0jYyouo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sachin Khilari</a> (the first of three policies mis-sold to him commenced in October 2014) in Sangli district, Maharashtra and <a href="https://youtu.be/K15zslPNMpI" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Krishnapal Singh Chauhan</a> (who was sold his first policy in February 2019 and a further 10 in 12 months) in Banswara, Rajasthan, both highlighted by <a href="http://www.insuranceangels.in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insurance Angels</a>. These cases illustrate the mis-selling of policies by violation of rules; non-compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) to determine source of funds of the policy holder; non-verification of income of customers; alleged <a href="https://twitter.com/insuranceangel/status/1333003681592205313?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forging</a>  of the signatures of policy holders; inflating of policy holders’ income on the forms; and the sale of multiple policies to an individual, where the collective premium exceeds the annual income of the policyholder. Each customer in a financial services company has a unique customer id where her/his Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols, proof of individual income and financial products sold are mapped. When multiple policies are sold by an insurance company to a single individual, it would show up on the customer’s profile. Prior to approving any further policies the underwriting team would examine whether the customer’s income can service the insurance premiums, and approve the sale. What is extremely alarming in these mis-selling cases is that when additional policies were sold to both Khilari and Chauhan, where the collective annual premiums were more than their annual incomes, the underwriters were readily approving the policies without verifying their income. Such professional misconduct completely exposes the underwriting system at IPru Life. The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI), the regulator, and stakeholders in the company need to critically evaluate how such cases are bypassing IPru Life’s underwriting system.With such poor underwriting and basic protocol systems it is no surprise that ICICI Bank, IPru Life’s parent, has discontinued selling traditional life insurance policies for the last couple of years, even those of its subsidiary where senior ICICI Bank officials are deputed as CEOs. Anup Bagchi, executive director, ICICI Bank and non-executive director (nominated by ICICI Bank), ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, has gone on <a href="https://www.icicibank.com/managed-assets/docs/investor/quarterly-financial-results/2021/ICICI-Bank-Transcript-for-Analyst-Call-held-on-Oct-31-2020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">record</a> on his apprehension that the low long-term persistency ratios in the industry could have an adverse impact on their own bank customers. That a parent company which has firm control on senior executive management at its subsidiary declines to sell the subsidiary’s traditional life insurance products, as it cannot ensure near 100% long-term persistency ratio, speaks volume of IPru Life’s capabilities.It is time stakeholders and the regulator look beyond the neat and tidy persistency ratios and closely evaluate individual customer mis-selling complaints to understand how life insurance is actually mis-sold on the ground to unsuspecting customers and how underwriting is done by companies like IPru Life.

Despite ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN) (IPru Life) reporting improvement in long-term persistency ratios, there are worrying examples of brazen mis-selling of life insurance policies by the company through its corporate agent, Angel Financial Advisors and even its parent, ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN). The cases of two 21-year old customers reveal the state of underwriting at IPru Life: Sachin Khilari (the first of three policies mis-sold to him commenced in October 2014) in Sangli district, Maharashtra and Krishnapal Singh Chauhan (who was sold his first policy in February 2019 and a further 10 in 12 months) in Banswara, Rajasthan, both highlighted by Insurance Angels. These cases illustrate the mis-selling of policies by violation of rules; non-compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) to determine source of funds of the policy holder; non-verification of income of customers; alleged forging  of the signatures of policy holders; inflating of policy holders’ income on the forms; and the sale of multiple policies to an individual, where the collective premium exceeds the annual income of the policyholder. Each customer in a financial services company has a unique customer id where her/his Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols, proof of individual income and financial products sold are mapped. When multiple policies are sold by an insurance company to a single individual, it would show up on the customer’s profile. Prior to approving any further policies the underwriting team would examine whether the customer’s income can service the insurance premiums, and approve the sale. What is extremely alarming in these mis-selling cases is that when additional policies were sold to both Khilari and Chauhan, where the collective annual premiums were more than their annual incomes, the underwriters were readily approving the policies without verifying their income. Such professional misconduct completely exposes the underwriting system at IPru Life. The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI), the regulator, and stakeholders in the company need to critically evaluate how such cases are bypassing IPru Life’s underwriting system.With such poor underwriting and basic protocol systems it is no surprise that ICICI Bank, IPru Life’s parent, has discontinued selling traditional life insurance policies for the last couple of years, even those of its subsidiary where senior ICICI Bank officials are deputed as CEOs. Anup Bagchi, executive director, ICICI Bank and non-executive director (nominated by ICICI Bank), ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, has gone on record on his apprehension that the low long-term persistency ratios in the industry could have an adverse impact on their own bank customers. That a parent company which has firm control on senior executive management at its subsidiary declines to sell the subsidiary’s traditional life insurance products, as it cannot ensure near 100% long-term persistency ratio, speaks volume of IPru Life’s capabilities.It is time stakeholders and the regulator look beyond the neat and tidy persistency ratios and closely evaluate individual customer mis-selling complaints to understand how life insurance is actually mis-sold on the ground to unsuspecting customers and how underwriting is done by companies like IPru Life.

Brazen Mis-Selling by IPru Life: When Even the Parent Keeps a Distance, Something Surely Stinks

India

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited of India provides life insurance services. The Company offers claim processing, electronic insurance accounts, and other services. ICICI Prudential Life Insurance conducts its business in India.

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN)

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ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN)

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Pair trades on large cap Asian financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day. These pairs trade in bands versus each other and currently offer...

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We look at liquid and large cap pairs from the financials sector that exhibit mean-reversion and are currently trading at or near an extreme based...

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Punjab National Bank – Match Is Lit

PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK: PNB reported a net income decline of 18.5% linked quarter. Despite the increase, provisions still fell short to the tune of...

Thomas J. Monaco

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Credit Falling Off Of A Cliff

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK: KMB reported FY 3Q21 linked quarter results decline of 15.2%, driven primarily by a 62.5% increase in provisions which still...

Thomas J. Monaco

Brazen Mis-Selling by IPru Life: When Even the Parent Keeps a Distance, Something Surely Stinks

Stakeholders need to look beyond the persistency ratios and evaluate individual customer mis-selling complaints to evaluate the state of...

Hemindra Hazari

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