CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, and five new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 105% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 38%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, and five new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 105% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 38%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 39

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>Solid growth in Tansansu sales, strong sales growth momentum in Green Tea Honey Lemon sales, and higher spending from FIFA world cup activity should support 4Q22 earnings to grow YoY.</li>
<li>Widen margin drove 3Q22 earnings  The YoY growth in earnings mainly supported by strong demand for green tea products.</li>
<li>The QoQ expansion in earnings driven by improving production efficiency as a result from higher utilization rate to 66% from 52% in 2021. </li>
</ul>


Solid growth in Tansansu sales, strong sales growth momentum in Green Tea Honey Lemon sales, and higher spending from FIFA world cup activity should support 4Q22 earnings to grow YoY.
Widen margin drove 3Q22 earnings  The YoY growth in earnings mainly supported by strong demand for green tea products.
The QoQ expansion in earnings driven by improving production efficiency as a result from higher utilization rate to 66% from 52% in 2021. 


ICHI : Solid Growth in Tansansu Sales Should Boost 4Q22 Earnings

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation for ICHI with a target price of Bt10.3Ichitan Green Tea Honey Lemon sales drove total ICHITAN portfolio to grew YoY and offset a drop in international sales</li>
<li>Squeezed margin dragged 2Q22 earnings  ICHI posted 2Q22 net profit of Bt153m (-8%YoY, +47%QoQ). 1H22 result accounted for 48% of our 2022E.</li>
<li>The YoY drop in earnings mainly pressured by contraction in gross profit margin to 18% from 21.3%YoY in 2Q21 as a result from rising packaging cost and raw material cost.</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY recommendation for ICHI with a target price of Bt10.3Ichitan Green Tea Honey Lemon sales drove total ICHITAN portfolio to grew YoY and offset a drop in international sales
Squeezed margin dragged 2Q22 earnings  ICHI posted 2Q22 net profit of Bt153m (-8%YoY, +47%QoQ). 1H22 result accounted for 48% of our 2022E.
The YoY drop in earnings mainly pressured by contraction in gross profit margin to 18% from 21.3%YoY in 2Q21 as a result from rising packaging cost and raw material cost.


<ul>
<li>ICHI reported 1Q22 net profit at Bt104m (-15%YoY, -22%QoQ). The 1Q22 result came out lower than our expectation.</li>
<li>Excluding one-time tax items of Bt24m,1Q22 norm profit was at Bt128m(+5.4%YoY). The YoY and QoQ drop in earnings mainly from a contraction in gross profit margin to 14.7% in 1Q22 </li>
<li>We expect 2Q22 earnings to recover QoQ from high season quarter. Revised down 2022 earnings by 18% to 20% in 2022-23E to factor in rising cost.</li>
</ul>


ICHI reported 1Q22 net profit at Bt104m (-15%YoY, -22%QoQ). The 1Q22 result came out lower than our expectation.
Excluding one-time tax items of Bt24m,1Q22 norm profit was at Bt128m(+5.4%YoY). The YoY and QoQ drop in earnings mainly from a contraction in gross profit margin to 14.7% in 1Q22 
We expect 2Q22 earnings to recover QoQ from high season quarter. Revised down 2022 earnings by 18% to 20% in 2022-23E to factor in rising cost.


ICHI: Disappointing 1Q22 Result Already in the Price

<ul>
<li>We reiterate our BUY rating for ICHI with a target price of Bt13.0 based on 25xPE’22E, the five-years average trading range and close to Thailand consumer staples.</li>
<li>We expect strong earnings momentum to continue to grow both YoY and QoQ in 1Q22 and continue in 2Q22 from high season quarter.Currently,ICHI trading at 20xPE’22E cheaper than its five-years</li>
<li>We expect earnings to grow at CAGR of11%in the next three year to reach Bt742m by 2024 supported by launching new products and new markets expansion,as well as margin expansion </li>
</ul>


We reiterate our BUY rating for ICHI with a target price of Bt13.0 based on 25xPE’22E, the five-years average trading range and close to Thailand consumer staples.
We expect strong earnings momentum to continue to grow both YoY and QoQ in 1Q22 and continue in 2Q22 from high season quarter.Currently,ICHI trading at 20xPE’22E cheaper than its five-years
We expect earnings to grow at CAGR of11%in the next three year to reach Bt742m by 2024 supported by launching new products and new markets expansion,as well as margin expansion 


ICHI: Strong Earnings Momentum with Attractive Dividend Yield

Thailand

Ichitan Group PCL operates in the beverage industry. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and distributes a variety of tea beverages.

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Ichitan Group (ICHI TB)

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 39

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, five new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

ICHI : Solid Growth in Tansansu Sales Should Boost 4Q22 Earnings

Solid growth in Tansansu sales, strong sales growth momentum in Green Tea Honey Lemon sales, and higher spending from FIFA world cup activity...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ICHI : Healthy Outlook in 2H22

Maintain BUY recommendation for ICHI with a target price of Bt10.3 Ichitan Green Tea Honey Lemon sales drove total ICHITAN portfolio to grew YoY...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ICHI: Disappointing 1Q22 Result Already in the Price

ICHI reported 1Q22 net profit at Bt104m (-15%YoY, -22%QoQ). The 1Q22 result came out lower than our expectation. Excluding one-time tax items of...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ICHI: Strong Earnings Momentum with Attractive Dividend Yield

We reiterate our BUY rating for ICHI with a target price of Bt13.0 based on 25xPE’22E, the five-years average trading range and close to Thailand...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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