Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nanya Technology has warned of a downturn that could last to the end of the year. This follows reports of procurement delays in response to excess inventory at Samsung.</li>
<li>Inflation, the Fed's attempt to kill it with higher interest rates, and the growing risk of recession now threaten not only Tokyo Electron but the entire semiconductor supply chain.</li>
<li>Record capital spending plans should be fully discounted. Potential delays and cutbacks now put a burden of uncertainty on the sector.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Technology has warned of a downturn that could last to the end of the year. This follows reports of procurement delays in response to excess inventory at Samsung.
Inflation, the Fed's attempt to kill it with higher interest rates, and the growing risk of recession now threaten not only Tokyo Electron but the entire semiconductor supply chain.
Record capital spending plans should be fully discounted. Potential delays and cutbacks now put a burden of uncertainty on the sector.


Tokyo Electron (8035): Semiconductor Supply Chain at Risk of a Downturn

<ul>
<li>Share price down 35% since last December,  probably because FY Mar-23 guidance seems over-optimistic. Gearing to falling demand and rising costs is high.</li>
<li>Sales and profits should eventually rebound as 5G smart phone and data center related demand continue to grow, and after new capacity comes on line in 2024.</li>
<li>First rate IC substrate and printed wiring board technology, and sound finances, make the company a candidate for long-term investment.</li>
</ul>


Share price down 35% since last December,  probably because FY Mar-23 guidance seems over-optimistic. Gearing to falling demand and rising costs is high.
Sales and profits should eventually rebound as 5G smart phone and data center related demand continue to grow, and after new capacity comes on line in 2024.
First rate IC substrate and printed wiring board technology, and sound finances, make the company a candidate for long-term investment.


Ibiden (4062 JP): Guidance Looks Too High, but Dropping Toward an Entry Point

Shinko Electric Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shinko may look attractively valued, but it is highly geared to a slowdown in demand. Rising materials costs and depreciation accentuate downside gearing.</li>
<li>Management is guiding for another year of strong sales growth, but may be ignoring the possibility of a decline in remote-work and other COVID-related demand.</li>
<li>Rolling over, but still up 6.7x since March 2020. Not worth the risk in the current environment.</li>
</ul>


Shinko may look attractively valued, but it is highly geared to a slowdown in demand. Rising materials costs and depreciation accentuate downside gearing.
Management is guiding for another year of strong sales growth, but may be ignoring the possibility of a decline in remote-work and other COVID-related demand.
Rolling over, but still up 6.7x since March 2020. Not worth the risk in the current environment.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Reality Check - Risk on the Downside

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Every year (usually in the beginning of September), the Nikkei Inc Index team conducts an annual review of the major price-weighted Nikkei indices - the most important being the Nikkei 225 Average - and adds and subtracts constituents according to the Rules.
Today, they announced the 2021 version of the changes (<a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>, <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PAF changes</a>).
Below is Some Background. If you want to skip ahead to the juicy analysis, you can jump ahead to the Changes Announced section just below, and then more below the fold.
<h3>Some Background</h3>
The Nikkei 225, well-known globally as "the Nikkei" is a price-weighted index, originally started nearly 70 years ago as an average of a selected number of stocks listed on the TSE First Section. Later, it became 225 members. 
Because it is price-weighted, and because for a long time it made no divisor adjustments for stock splits (so when a stock split 2:1 its weight fell by half because price fell by half and trackers had to sell half their shares in that stock), and the price multiplier was determined by the par value of a company, then they later they started adjusting for splits, stocks which are old, never split, AND have a high price end up having a high weight in the index. 
There was a huge reshuffle in April 2000 when the Nikkei decided that the system needed rebalancing to include more tech, so they changed the Rules. They pushed 30 names out and 30 names in, and the 30 names added were 50% of the new index. 
Twenty one years after the prior change in methodology, this past May 10 the Nikkei Inc Index Team announced new changes to the Rules. There was a <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>, with an <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FAQ</a>, and <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supplemental data</a>. On 5 July, the Nikkei confirmed the proposal with a new <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210705E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Guidebook</a>.
When I wrote about this on 10 May in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/after-20yrs-nikkei-225-proposes-minor-impact-rule-changes-nintendo-disappointment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51277" rel="noopener">After 20yrs, Nikkei 225 Proposes Minor Impact Rule Changes (Nintendo Disappointment?)</a> I said I thought the changes disappointing. There are real problems with the index and this did not do much; the changes are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, with the only interesting change being that constituents are added with a weight no greater than 1%. If the normal price adjustment factor would allow a constituent to enter at a weight greater than 1%, the Price Adjustment Factor (base 1) is lowered in increments of 0.1 so that the deemed inclusion weight on Base Date (end of July) is no more than 1%. There is no change to the idea that the Nikkei Index Team can override their rankings at any time as they see fit.
Because the Nikkei Index Team had let the sector balances and rankings slide quite a bit over the years (not adding "obvious" names and not deleting names which should probably have been deleted, and not rebalancing the sectors as the rules say they should), the possibility was that some names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> and similar high-price-low-share-count names which "deserved" to be included were not simply because their very high price would create undue impact (it was undue impact and the lack of incremental float for high-weight low-share-count names which caused the BOJ to lower, then eventually cease their buying of Nikkei 225 ETFs). This rule on capping inclusions at 1% would go a ways to mitigating that problem so that would allow the Nikkei to add previously un-addable names. Expectations were high on a group of names, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence Corp (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>, and probably <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, with the latter two likely to create some real froth if actually selected. 
<h2>The Changes Announced</h2>
Today after the close, the Nikkei Index Team announced the following changes to the Nikkei 225 Average as a result of the Annual Review:
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/228/056/original/Screenshot+2021-09-06+at+5.11.07+PM.png?1630919479" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="228056"></figure>
</section>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/228/055/original/Screenshot+2021-09-06+at+5.06.02+PM.png?1630919179" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="228055"></figure>

</section>
The changes will be made on the last trading day of September, at the close. I expect to see $10bn trade on that day.
The new rules allow the Nikkei Index team to not do a lot to the sector mix if the additions are made because of "High Liquidity" because while the sector mix would normally mean more than three deleted, the new rules cap changes at 3 per annual rebalance (which is not enough).
As noted above, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> were among names which were expected as possible inclusions and therefore a certain amount of pre-positioning may be in place. They may get somewhat hurt tomorrow.
<div class="content-highlight">
There are a LOT of moving parts here. There are 3 ADDs, 3 DELETIONS, 1 Price Adjustment Factor moved sharply higher and one moved somewhat lower (a list of all the PAFs announced by the Nikkei is <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), then there are another 220 stocks which will see selling on 30 September at the rebalance. 
</div>
For more detailed analysis of the stocks, their positioning, how much to buy, etc, please read on.
<hr>
For more about passive tracking in Japan, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-passive-who-owns-what-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55008" rel="noopener">JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021?</a>

Every year (usually in the beginning of September), the Nikkei Inc Index team conducts an annual review of the major price-weighted Nikkei indices - the most important being the Nikkei 225 Average - and adds and subtracts constituents according to the Rules.
Today, they announced the 2021 version of the changes (announcement, PAF changes).
Below is Some Background. If you want to skip ahead to the juicy analysis, you can jump ahead to the Changes Announced section just below, and then more below the fold.
Some Background
The Nikkei 225, well-known globally as "the Nikkei" is a price-weighted index, originally started nearly 70 years ago as an average of a selected number of stocks listed on the TSE First Section. Later, it became 225 members. 
Because it is price-weighted, and because for a long time it made no divisor adjustments for stock splits (so when a stock split 2:1 its weight fell by half because price fell by half and trackers had to sell half their shares in that stock), and the price multiplier was determined by the par value of a company, then they later they started adjusting for splits, stocks which are old, never split, AND have a high price end up having a high weight in the index. 
There was a huge reshuffle in April 2000 when the Nikkei decided that the system needed rebalancing to include more tech, so they changed the Rules. They pushed 30 names out and 30 names in, and the 30 names added were 50% of the new index. 
Twenty one years after the prior change in methodology, this past May 10 the Nikkei Inc Index Team announced new changes to the Rules. There was a proposal, with an FAQ, and supplemental data. On 5 July, the Nikkei confirmed the proposal with a new Guidebook.
When I wrote about this on 10 May in After 20yrs, Nikkei 225 Proposes Minor Impact Rule Changes (Nintendo Disappointment?) I said I thought the changes disappointing. There are real problems with the index and this did not do much; the changes are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, with the only interesting change being that constituents are added with a weight no greater than 1%. If the normal price adjustment factor would allow a constituent to enter at a weight greater than 1%, the Price Adjustment Factor (base 1) is lowered in increments of 0.1 so that the deemed inclusion weight on Base Date (end of July) is no more than 1%. There is no change to the idea that the Nikkei Index Team can override their rankings at any time as they see fit.
Because the Nikkei Index Team had let the sector balances and rankings slide quite a bit over the years (not adding "obvious" names and not deleting names which should probably have been deleted, and not rebalancing the sectors as the rules say they should), the possibility was that some names like Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) and similar high-price-low-share-count names which "deserved" to be included were not simply because their very high price would create undue impact (it was undue impact and the lack of incremental float for high-weight low-share-count names which caused the BOJ to lower, then eventually cease their buying of Nikkei 225 ETFs). This rule on capping inclusions at 1% would go a ways to mitigating that problem so that would allow the Nikkei to add previously un-addable names. Expectations were high on a group of names, with Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP), Keyence Corp (6861 JP), ZOZO Inc (3092 JP), and probably Oriental Land (4661 JP), with the latter two likely to create some real froth if actually selected. 
The Changes Announced
Today after the close, the Nikkei Index Team announced the following changes to the Nikkei 225 Average as a result of the Annual Review:







The changes will be made on the last trading day of September, at the close. I expect to see $10bn trade on that day.
The new rules allow the Nikkei Index team to not do a lot to the sector mix if the additions are made because of "High Liquidity" because while the sector mix would normally mean more than three deleted, the new rules cap changes at 3 per annual rebalance (which is not enough).
As noted above, ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) and Oriental Land (4661 JP) were among names which were expected as possible inclusions and therefore a certain amount of pre-positioning may be in place. They may get somewhat hurt tomorrow.

There are a LOT of moving parts here. There are 3 ADDs, 3 DELETIONS, 1 Price Adjustment Factor moved sharply higher and one moved somewhat lower (a list of all the PAFs announced by the Nikkei is here), then there are another 220 stocks which will see selling on 30 September at the rebalance. 

For more detailed analysis of the stocks, their positioning, how much to buy, etc, please read on.

For more about passive tracking in Japan, please refer to JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021? 

2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Risk-on signals continue to pile up, which continues to support our constructive outlook. Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure (e.g., Bilibili BILI-US/9626-HK).

Risk-on signals continue to pile up, which continues to support our constructive outlook. Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure (e.g., Bilibili BILI-US/9626-HK).

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add Exposure

Japan

Azbil Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets total automation equipment used in industrial and commercial buildings. The Company's products include sensors, switches, recording meters, security systems, air conditioners, pressure transmitters, and flow meters.

Taiyo Yuden Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets electronic components such as, ceramic capacitors, inductors, hybrid integrated circuits (IC), and ferrite. The Company's products include power supplies, inverters, optical disks, filters, coils, and thermistors.

YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORPORATION develops, manufactures, and markets information technology (IT) solutions, measuring and control equipment, semiconductors, and electronic components.  The Company's products include IT controllers, flowmeters, pressure transmitters, analyzers, data recorder, switching power supplies, and AC (alternating current) adaptors.

HIROSE ELECTRIC CO., LTD. develops and sells electronic equipment, specializing in connectors.  The Company's products include circular, rectangular and ribbon cables, printed circuit boards, integrated circuits, PC cards, nylon boards, and board connectors.

HAMAMATSU PHOTONICS K.K. manufactures electron tubes, semiconductors, and image processors.  The Company's products include photosensitive electronic tubes, optical/image sensors, X-ray related products, laser related products, photodiodes, light-emitting diodes (LED) and video camera used for measuring equipment.

OMRON Corporation manufactures electronic components, equipment and systems used for factory automation. The Company provides products and services in a variety of fields including industrial automation, electronic components, automotive electronics, social systems such as ticket gate machines and traffic control, and healthcare.

Shimadzu Corporation is a precision tools and equipment maker.  The Company develops, manufactures, and sells analytical and measuring instruments, medical systems, and  aircraft and industrial equipment.  Shimadzu researches, develops, and markets the products through its related companies in Japan, the US, the UK, and China.

YASKAWA Electric Corporation manufactures and markets servomotors, controllers, inverters, and industrial robots.  The Company's products include spindle controllers, computerized numerical control (CNC) systems, and system engineering.

MARUWA CO., LTD. develops, manufactures, and sells electronic ceramic components, resistors, and hybrid integrated circuits (IC).  The Company operates production facilities in Malaysia.

HORIBA, Ltd., manufactures and markets measuring instruments and analyzers.  The Company's main product lines are scientific analyzers, environment monitoring, medical analyzers, engine emission analyzers, and semiconductor test equipment. Horiba operates worldwide.

Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd. researches, designs and manufactures security and surveillance equipments. It also modular-designs both hardware and software with flexibility for different configurations, various scales of applications and future expansion.

Jentech Precision Industrial Company Ltd. provides tooling, precision metal stamping, custom insert molding, injection molding, and assembly solutions for medical, consumer electronics, semiconductor, automotive, appliance, and micro electronic markets to a wide variety of industries.

Huagong Tech Co., Ltd. manufactures laser equipment, laser false-proof products, sensitive electronic components, optical telecommunication products, and biopharmaceuticals.  The Company also develops computer software and provides computer system integration services.

Insight Enterprises, Inc. offers information technology hardware, software, and services to large enterprises, small to medium sized businesses, and public sector institutions in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.

FPT Corp is an information and communication technology company. The Company provides services in mobile distribution, systems integration, software outsourcing and development, Internet and e-media content, and computer assembly.

Dolby Laboratories Inc. develops audio signal processing systems for the motion picture, broadcasting, and music recording industries, as well as the consumer market.

Innolux Corporation manufactures TFT-LCD, LCD models and LCD monitors. The company also provides research, development, manufacturing and retails business.

LOTES Co., Ltd specialize in design and manufacture of connectors, CPU Socket, Coolers and Antenna for Notebook Computer, Personal Computer, Mobile electronic device and Ditial Video.

Synnex Technology International Corporation markets personal computers, computer peripherals, multi-media products, network products, computer application software, electronic parts, and telecommunication products.

Synnex Technology International (2347 TT)

Arrow Electronics, Inc. distributes electronic components and computer products to industrial and commercial customers.  The Company distributes a variety of products including computer systems, peripherals, software, and mass storage products to original equipment manufacturers and commercial customers worldwide.

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Tokyo Electron (8035): Semiconductor Supply Chain at Risk of a Downturn

Nanya warning of a downturn follows excess inventory report from Samsung. Even smartphone and data center demand at risk. End of the super cycle...

Scott Foster

Ibiden (4062 JP): Guidance Looks Too High, but Dropping Toward an Entry Point

Guidance looks too high given high gearing to flagging demand and rising costs. But superior technology, capacity expansion and sound finances...

Scott Foster

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Reality Check - Risk on the Downside

Shinko may look attractively valued, but highly geared to falling sales. Rising materials costs and depreciation limit upside and add to downside...

Scott Foster

2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT

The Nikkei 225 Rebalance is here. A small surprise in the ADDs. No surprises on the DELETEs. A couple of housekeeping changes, and 600 baskets to...

Travis Lundy

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add Exposure

Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure...

Vermilion Research

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