Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Materials, and decreased on Financials , Information Technology, Health Care and Communication Services.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seiko-epson-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16793:1" rel="noopener">Seiko Epson (6724 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">Ana Holdings (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kubota-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12926:1" rel="noopener">Kubota Corp (6326 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Information Technology and Financials, while decreasing on Consumer Discretionary,  Industrials, Consumer Staples and Real Estate.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, there were short positions put on in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-oil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1667:1" rel="noopener">S Oil Corp (010950 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirae-asset-daewoo-co-ltd-b50c4d95-1687-46cb-9b58-f79ce0e72670" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12061:1" rel="noopener">Mirae Asset Daewoo (006800 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2163:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Life Insurance (088350 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foxconn-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11950:1" rel="noopener">Foxconn Technology (2354 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unimicron-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18778:1" rel="noopener">Unimicron Technology (3037 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12688:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics (2308 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Smoore International (6969 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), JD.com (HK) (9618 HK) and Haidilao (6862 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), China Mobile (941 HK) and HSBC Holdings (5 HK). Shorts increased on Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Materials, and decreased on Financials , Information Technology, Health Care and Communication Services.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP), Seiko Epson (6724 JP) and Bank Of Kyoto (8369 JP) while shorts decreased on Honda Motor (7267 JP), Ana Holdings (9202 JP), Kao Corp (4452 JP) and Kubota Corp (6326 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Information Technology and Financials, while decreasing on Consumer Discretionary,  Industrials, Consumer Staples and Real Estate.In Korea, there were short positions put on in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), Kakao Corp (035720 KS) and LG Display (034220 KS) while shorts were covered in S Oil Corp (010950 KS), Mirae Asset Daewoo (006800 KS), Hanwha Life Insurance (088350 KS) and Doosan Infracore (042670 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Pegatron Corp (4938 TT), Foxconn Technology (2354 TT), Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) and Unimicron Technology (3037 TT) while shorts were covered on United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT), TSMC (2330 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT) and Delta Electronics (2308 TT).

Asia Short Interest: Smoore, JD, SMIC, China Mobile, Itochu, Honda, Ana, Samsung, Pegatron, TSMC

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>One of the biggest stories coming out of Korea in 2021 has been the "deal that has yet to be confirmed" between Apple and Hyundai Motor. </strong>On Sunday (10 January), a local newspaper Korea IT News reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> plan to sign a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-hyundai-motor-apple/apple-hyundai-set-to-agree-electric-car-tie-up-says-korea-it-news-idUSKBN29F0C1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">partnership deal</a> by March 2021 to develop autonomous electric vehicles and start production around 2024 in the United States.</p></div>

One of the biggest stories coming out of Korea in 2021 has been the "deal that has yet to be confirmed" between Apple and Hyundai Motor. On Sunday (10 January), a local newspaper Korea IT News reported that Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) and Apple Inc (AAPL US) plan to sign a partnership deal by March 2021 to develop autonomous electric vehicles and start production around 2024 in the United States.

Apple EV + Hyundai Motor = An Ideal Marriage or A Relationship Doom to Fail?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Huifu Payment, Vedanta, Cardinal Resources, Jih Sun Finance

Equity Bottom-Up

Myoung Shin Industrial Co.,Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Myoungshin Industrial (009900 KS) has been one of the hottest IPOs in Korea in 2020. It completed its IPO on 7 December at the IPO price of 6,500 won.  The stock price has surged nearly 7x in 11 trading days to 51,800 won as of 21 December. Its market cap has exploded to 2.1 trillion won ($1.9 billion). This surge is mostly driven by retail money and it reflects a retail madness of crowds in terms of FOMO (fear of missing out). </p><p>Tesla's inclusion date for S&amp;P 500 index is on 21 December. We believe this is a significant date for Tesla as well as many of its suppliers such as Myoungshin Industrial as well as for the entire overall EV value chain. Although we do not claim to foretell how Tesla will perform post this date, we do believe there have been a big chunk of investors who have been positioning to buy Tesla and its related suppliers leading into this S&amp;P 500 index inclusion and selling them after the inclusion. </p><p>Our high end case for Myoungshin Industrial assumed a net profit estimate of 45.7 billion won (an average of 2020 and 2021) and applied a 12.2x P/E (which is about 33% premium to the average P/E of the comps in 2020). At the current market cap of 2.1 trillion won, Myoungshin Industrial is trading at a 46x P/E using the high end of our net profit estimate of 45.7 billion won. Although Myoungshin Industrial has a solid technology for hot stamping products, is this really that special to warrant this very high valuation multiples? We do not believe so. </p>

Myoungshin Industrial (009900 KS) has been one of the hottest IPOs in Korea in 2020. It completed its IPO on 7 December at the IPO price of 6,500 won.  The stock price has surged nearly 7x in 11 trading days to 51,800 won as of 21 December. Its market cap has exploded to 2.1 trillion won ($1.9 billion). This surge is mostly driven by retail money and it reflects a retail madness of crowds in terms of FOMO (fear of missing out). Tesla's inclusion date for S&amp;P 500 index is on 21 December. We believe this is a significant date for Tesla as well as many of its suppliers such as Myoungshin Industrial as well as for the entire overall EV value chain. Although we do not claim to foretell how Tesla will perform post this date, we do believe there have been a big chunk of investors who have been positioning to buy Tesla and its related suppliers leading into this S&amp;P 500 index inclusion and selling them after the inclusion. Our high end case for Myoungshin Industrial assumed a net profit estimate of 45.7 billion won (an average of 2020 and 2021) and applied a 12.2x P/E (which is about 33% premium to the average P/E of the comps in 2020). At the current market cap of 2.1 trillion won, Myoungshin Industrial is trading at a 46x P/E using the high end of our net profit estimate of 45.7 billion won. Although Myoungshin Industrial has a solid technology for hot stamping products, is this really that special to warrant this very high valuation multiples? We do not believe so. 

Myoungshin Industrial - Best Performing IPO in Korea in 2020 (Retail FOMO Madness of Crowds)

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Hyundai Motor used to give out ₩1,000 in quarterly dividends, and ₩3,000 at year-end.This year, it skipped the quarterly dividend. So, the year-end div will likely be ₩4,000.









Hyundai Motor Co
2017
2018
2019
2020E


Sales
96,376.1
96,812.6
105,746.4
104,141.4


- YoY
2.91%
0.45%
9.23%
-1.52%


OP
4,574.7
2,422.2
3,605.5
2,879.4


- YoY
-11.91%
-47.05%
48.85%
-20.14%


NP
4,546.4
1,645.0
3,185.6
2,240.9


- YoY
-20.51%
-63.82%
93.65%
-29.66%


NP to controlling stake
4,032.8
1,508.1
2,980.0
1,812.3


EPS (₩)
14,127
5,352
10,761
6,544


BPS (₩)
247,807
249,619
258,478
261,290


DPS (₩)
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000


Div. yield
2.56%
3.38%
3.32%
2.15%


PER (x)
11.04
22.14
11.20
28.88


PBR (x)
0.63
0.47
0.47
0.72

Source: FnGuide

At the current prices, Ord has a 2.15% div yield, whereas 1P enjoys 4.62%. 2PB features a 4.49% yield.









Div yield
2017
2018
2019
2020E


Ord DPS (₩)
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000


Div yield
2.56%
3.38%
3.32%
2.15%


1P DPS (₩)
4,050
4,050
4,050
4,050


Div yield
4.32%
5.77%
5.65%
4.62%


2PB DPS (₩)
4,100
4,100
4,100
4,100


Div yield
4.02%
5.32%
5.16%
4.49%

Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide









Hyundai Motor shares

Name
Hyundai Motor Co
Hyundai Motor S1 Pref Shs
Hyundai Motor S2 Pref Shs


Ticker
005380
005385
005387


Record date
FY/FQ closing date
FY/FQ closing date
FY/FQ closing date


FYE
December
December
December


Notation
Ord
1P
2PB


Restriction
-
Registered
Registered


Participation
-
Non-participating
Participating


Cumulation
-
Non-cumulative
Cumulative


Duration
-
Perpetual
Perpetual


Class
-
A
B


Min. dividend rate
-
Ord + 1% FV
Ord + 2% FV


Face value
-
₩5,000
₩5,000


Voting right
Yes
No
No

Source: DART

The div yield differences between Ord and the two prefs are at the highest since 2017.









Div yield diff
2017
2018
2019
2020E


1P/Ord
1.76%p
2.39%p
2.33%p
2.47%p


2PB/Ord
1.46%p
1.95%p
1.84%p
2.34%p


1P/2PB
0.30%p
0.44%p
0.48%p
0.13%p

Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide



Hyundai Motor Div Play: 1P & 2PB at 3% Gain with Short Hedge on Ord Futures

South Korea

Hyundai Motor Company manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. The Company also sells various auto parts and operates auto repair service centers throughout South Korea. Hyundai Motor provides financial services through its subsidiaries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hyundai Motor (005385 KS)

Asia Short Interest: Smoore, JD, SMIC, China Mobile, Itochu, Honda, Ana, Samsung, Pegatron, TSMC

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Apple EV + Hyundai Motor = An Ideal Marriage or A Relationship Doom to Fail?

One of the biggest stories coming out of Korea in 2021 has been the "deal that has yet to be confirmed" between Apple and Hyundai Motor to co...

Douglas Kim

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Huifu Payment, Vedanta, Cardinal Resources, Jih Sun Finance

The weekend is upon us - pour yourself some coffee (or mulled wine) and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during...

David Blennerhassett

Myoungshin Industrial - Best Performing IPO in Korea in 2020 (Retail FOMO Madness of Crowds)

Myoungshin Industrial has been the best performing IPO in Korea in 2020, driven by its supplier relationship to Tesla. This surge reflects a major...

Douglas Kim

Hyundai Motor Div Play: 1P & 2PB at 3% Gain with Short Hedge on Ord Futures

Hyundai Motor 1P/2PB now offers a juicy div play opportunity with a short hedge on Ord futures. Short-term risk on the price ratio should be minimal.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)