Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>According to our NAV analysis, it suggests a base case valuation of 122,473 won per share for HD Hyundai, representing a 50% upside from current levels.</li>
<li>The combined value of HD Korea Shipbuilding &amp; Offshore Engineering, HD Hyundai Electric &amp; Energy, and HD Hyundai Marine Solution is 11.4 trillion won.</li>
<li>We estimate HD Hyundai's 73.85% stake in Hyundai Oilbank to be 7.0 trillion won. We also applied a 5x OP of its core business and a 50% holdco discount.</li>
</ul>


According to our NAV analysis, it suggests a base case valuation of 122,473 won per share for HD Hyundai, representing a 50% upside from current levels.
The combined value of HD Korea Shipbuilding &amp; Offshore Engineering, HD Hyundai Electric &amp; Energy, and HD Hyundai Marine Solution is 11.4 trillion won.
We estimate HD Hyundai's 73.85% stake in Hyundai Oilbank to be 7.0 trillion won. We also applied a 5x OP of its core business and a 50% holdco discount.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>There are some major surprises (both inclusions and exclusions) in the Korea Value Up index. </li>
<li>In particular, the telecom sector (SK Telecom and KT) and large cap holding companies (Samsung C&amp;T and LG Corp) are surprising exclusions in the index.</li>
<li>There are many surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index. We provide 30 companies are surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index (19 KOSDAQ and 11 KOSPI listed).</li>
</ul>


There are some major surprises (both inclusions and exclusions) in the Korea Value Up index. 
In particular, the telecom sector (SK Telecom and KT) and large cap holding companies (Samsung C&amp;T and LG Corp) are surprising exclusions in the index.
There are many surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index. We provide 30 companies are surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index (19 KOSDAQ and 11 KOSPI listed).


Korea Value Up Index - Surprising Inclusions and Exclusions

<ul>
<li>Korea Value-Up index is finally expected to be launched in September 2024 which is likely to include at least 100 companies in KOSPI and KOSDAQ.</li>
<li>There are expectations that Korea's Value Up index could resemble JPX Prime 150 index which is a Japanese version of the value up index launched last year.</li>
<li>We provide 70 stocks in Korea that could be included in the Korea Value Up index. These 70 stocks could outperform the market in the next several months.</li>
</ul>


Korea Value-Up index is finally expected to be launched in September 2024 which is likely to include at least 100 companies in KOSPI and KOSDAQ.
There are expectations that Korea's Value Up index could resemble JPX Prime 150 index which is a Japanese version of the value up index launched last year.
We provide 70 stocks in Korea that could be included in the Korea Value Up index. These 70 stocks could outperform the market in the next several months.


Launch of Korea Value Up Index in September

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 26 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it is considering a <em><strong>"special rebalancing"</strong></em> of the Korea Value-Up Index in December 2024.</li>
<li>In our view, the probability of this special rebalancing occurring by the end of this year is high at about 85%+.</li>
<li>If there is a special rebalancing, KB Financial, Hana Financial, Samsung Life Insurance, SK Telecom, and KT could be considered the top candidates for inclusion. </li>
</ul>


On 26 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it is considering a "special rebalancing" of the Korea Value-Up Index in December 2024.
In our view, the probability of this special rebalancing occurring by the end of this year is high at about 85%+.
If there is a special rebalancing, KB Financial, Hana Financial, Samsung Life Insurance, SK Telecom, and KT could be considered the top candidates for inclusion. 


A Special Rebalancing Of Korea Value-Up Index Is Likely in December 2024

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-marine-solution-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41002:1" rel="noopener">HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS)</a> was listed in Korea on 9th May 2024 after raising US$540m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 7th Nov 2024.</li>
<li>HD Hyundai Marine Solution is a ship aftermarket service provider that provides necessary services throughout a ship's life cycle after the delivery of a new ship.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) was listed in Korea on 9th May 2024 after raising US$540m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 7th Nov 2024.
HD Hyundai Marine Solution is a ship aftermarket service provider that provides necessary services throughout a ship's life cycle after the delivery of a new ship.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


HD Hyundai Marine US$1.18bn Lockup Expiry - KKR Might Be Tempted to Book Gains

South Korea

HD Hyundai Co.,Ltd. operates as a oil refining company. The Company provides crude oil refining, petroleum refinery, and other related products. HD Hyundai markets its products worldwide.

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HD Hyundai (267250 KS)

HD Hyundai: Updated NAV Analysis

According to our NAV analysis, it suggests a base case valuation of 122,473 won per share for HD Hyundai, representing a 50% upside from current...

Douglas Kim

Korea Value Up Index - Surprising Inclusions and Exclusions

There are many surprising inclusions and exclusions in the Korea Value Up Index. We provide 30 companies that are surprising inclusions and 10...

Douglas Kim

Launch of Korea Value Up Index in September

Korea Value-Up index is finally expected to be launched in September 2024 which is likely to include at least 100 companies in KOSPI and KOSDAQ.

Douglas Kim

A Special Rebalancing Of Korea Value-Up Index Is Likely in December 2024

KRX announced announced that a special rebalancing of 5 stocks to be included in the ‘Korea Value Up Index’ - KB Financial, Hana Financial, Hyundai...

Douglas Kim

HD Hyundai Marine US$1.18bn Lockup Expiry - KKR Might Be Tempted to Book Gains

KKR is selling around 4% of HD Hyundai Marine's stock to raise US$160m. The selldown comes right after the PE comes out of its six-month IPO...

Clarence Chu

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