Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Shanghai United Imaging Health / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the <em>next </em>largest 500 names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates show that the combined one-way flow for CSI 300 and CSI 500 could be around US$2.8bn.</li>
</ul>


CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.
Our latest estimates show that the combined one-way flow for CSI 300 and CSI 500 could be around US$2.8bn.


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23:  US$2.8bn One-Way; Might Be Time for a Basket Trade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance ends 31 October. We expect the changes to be announced 24 November with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in one change to the index.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 2,259m. The impact on the deletion will be much larger than that on the inclusion.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance ends 31 October. We expect the changes to be announced 24 November with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 December.
We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in one change to the index.
One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 2,259m. The impact on the deletion will be much larger than that on the inclusion.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Bigger Tracking AUM = Bigger Impact

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

<ul>
<li>Over 85% of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the December rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.93% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.93bn.</li>
<li>The huge inflow to passive trackers has led to the gap between the potential adds and deletes narrowing. That should reverse as passive will need to sell the deletes.</li>
</ul>


Over 85% of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the December rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 8 December.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.93% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.93bn.
The huge inflow to passive trackers has led to the gap between the potential adds and deletes narrowing. That should reverse as passive will need to sell the deletes.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Potential Changes in December

<ul>
<li>As expected, the index committee has used a 6-month minimum listing history and that results in two changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36698:1" rel="noopener">Piotech (688072 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwatsing-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36700:1" rel="noopener">Hwatsing Technology (688120 CH)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-nanomicro-technology-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33272:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Nanomicro Technology (688690 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhuhai-cosmx-battery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34667:1" rel="noopener">Zhuhai CosMX Battery (688772 CH)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover is estimated at 2.83% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,562m. There does not appear to be a lot of pre-positioning on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


As expected, the index committee has used a 6-month minimum listing history and that results in two changes to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in September.

Piotech (688072 CH) and Hwatsing Technology (688120 CH) will replace Suzhou Nanomicro Technology (688690 CH) and Zhuhai CosMX Battery (688772 CH) in the index.
One-Way turnover is estimated at 2.83% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,562m. There does not appear to be a lot of pre-positioning on the stocks.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Two Changes; Pre-Positioning Appears Light

China

Hygon Information Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes computer components. The Company produces high end processors, deep computing processors, accelerators, calculator chips, and other related products. Hygon Information Technology markets its products worldwide.

Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH)

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Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH)

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: US$2.8bn One-Way; Might Be Time for a Basket Trade

The Names directly moving into CSI 300 and CSI 500 without previously being members of either of these indices could outperform the CSI 300 index...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Bigger Tracking AUM = Bigger Impact

There could be one change in December resulting in a one-way turnover of 1.6% and a one-way trade of CNY 2,259m. The impact of passive trading on...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Potential Changes in December

There could be 14 changes for the CSI300 in Dec. We estimate one-way turnover of 1.93% and one-way trade of CNY 6.93bn. Materials lose the most...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Two Changes; Pre-Positioning Appears Light

There are 2 changes for the STAR50 in Sep. The adds/dels were expected and there has been big outperformance over the last few weeks. But,...

Brian Freitas

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Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23: US$2.8bn One-Way; Might Be Time for a Basket Trade

The Names directly moving into CSI 300 and CSI 500 without previously being members of either of these indices could outperform the CSI 300 index...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Bigger Tracking AUM = Bigger Impact

There could be one change in December resulting in a one-way turnover of 1.6% and a one-way trade of CNY 2,259m. The impact of passive trading on...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Potential Changes in December

There could be 14 changes for the CSI300 in Dec. We estimate one-way turnover of 1.93% and one-way trade of CNY 6.93bn. Materials lose the most...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Two Changes; Pre-Positioning Appears Light

There are 2 changes for the STAR50 in Sep. The adds/dels were expected and there has been big outperformance over the last few weeks. But,...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: US$2.8bn One-Way; Might Be Time for a Basket Trade