Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hybe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28959:1" rel="noopener">HYBE (352820 KS)</a> conceded to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> earlier this month, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a>'s shares have declined 23%. </li>
<li>Kakao's Partial Offer of  ₩150,000/share closes on the 26 March. </li>
<li>Unadjusted proration is 36.8%, conservatively rising to 48.5%. It may settle at 61% if HYBE maintains its position - but that is probably a tad optimistic. </li>
</ul>


After HYBE (352820 KS) conceded to Kakao Corp (035720 KS) earlier this month, S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)'s shares have declined 23%. 
Kakao's Partial Offer of  ₩150,000/share closes on the 26 March. 
Unadjusted proration is 36.8%, conservatively rising to 48.5%. It may settle at 61% if HYBE maintains its position - but that is probably a tad optimistic. 


Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The target volume is 47.6% of the nominally estimated tendering pool size. It may go up due to retail investors' typically low participation in tendering.</li>
<li>Other factors MAY OFFSET this. Most notable is the tendering possibility of HYBE (18.45%) and Lee Soo-man (4.96%). Combining these, the allocation rate will likely be between 50% and 60%.</li>
<li>Using this 50-60% band as a reference point, we should assess the risk of mismatching between the degree of post-tendering price correction and our loss buffer range for non-tendered shares.</li>
</ul>


The target volume is 47.6% of the nominally estimated tendering pool size. It may go up due to retail investors' typically low participation in tendering.
Other factors MAY OFFSET this. Most notable is the tendering possibility of HYBE (18.45%) and Lee Soo-man (4.96%). Combining these, the allocation rate will likely be between 50% and 60%.
Using this 50-60% band as a reference point, we should assess the risk of mismatching between the degree of post-tendering price correction and our loss buffer range for non-tendered shares.


SM Ent Tendering P&L & Allocation Risk for a 30% Spread Opening

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>On 12 March, HYBE (352820 KS) announced that it is no longer pursuing S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) in an M&amp;A battle with Kakao Corp (035720 KS).</li>
<li>This will result in a very high probability of Kakao winning the M&amp;A battle of SM Entertainment.</li>
<li>Many institutional investors are likely to have pushed back on HYBE's capital raising efforts, which seems to have been the clincher of HYBE backing out of this M&amp;A for SM. </li>
</ul>


On 12 March, HYBE (352820 KS) announced that it is no longer pursuing S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) in an M&amp;A battle with Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
This will result in a very high probability of Kakao winning the M&amp;A battle of SM Entertainment.
Many institutional investors are likely to have pushed back on HYBE's capital raising efforts, which seems to have been the clincher of HYBE backing out of this M&amp;A for SM. 


HYBE Gives Up the M&A Fight for SM Entertainment: Impact on Kakao's Tender Offer

<ul>
<li>There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: TPG's non-binding Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-trading-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13087:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: TPG's non-binding Offer for Invocare Ltd (IVC AU).
Key updates took place for Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP), and S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Invocare, Yashili, Pushpay Holdings, S.M.Entertainment

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
 Macro data points: Chinese growth targets and inflation, South Korean inflation, Malaysian interest rates</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hybe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28959:1" rel="noopener">HYBE (352820 KS)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

 Macro data points: Chinese growth targets and inflation, South Korean inflation, Malaysian interest rates

 Companies mentioned:Kakao Corp (035720 KS), S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS), HYBE (352820 KS)



GEM Weekly (10 Mar 2023): China GDP, South Korea Inflation, Malaysia Interest Rates; Kakao Corp

South Korea

HYBE Co., Ltd. operates as an entertainment company. The Company provides music production, album distribution, entertainers management, publicity, planning, training, and other services. HYBE also makes television shows.

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HYBE (352820 KS)

S.M. Entertainment: Proration Musings

I do not expect SM to trade below undisturbed levels after the close of the Partial. A merger/IPO with Kakao Entertainment is very much on the...

David Blennerhassett

SM Ent Tendering P&L & Allocation Risk for a 30% Spread Opening

This post examines tendering pool size, P&L, and allocation risks (and likely final rate) of SM Entertainment tendering event.

Sanghyun Park

HYBE Gives Up the M&A Fight for SM Entertainment: Impact on Kakao's Tender Offer

HYBE announced that it is no longer pursuing an M&A of SM Entertainment. This will result in a very high probability of Kakao winning the M&A...

Douglas Kim

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Invocare, Yashili, Pushpay Holdings, S.M.Entertainment

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

GEM Weekly (10 Mar 2023): China GDP, South Korea Inflation, Malaysia Interest Rates; Kakao Corp

The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of...

Wium Malan, CFA

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