Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

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<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<hr>
<p>The first sector is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where H/A spreads widened on average 0.6% for the week, after running 3.5% wider the previous week. Individual stock movement in the sector was striking. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> narrowed on strong H-share performance in the week, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> widened, though Great Wall had a great week. The entire sector has had an absolutely phenomenal post-Golden Week run with all the auto-related stocks doing VERY well (but all of them seeing their H/A spreads widen over the period. The average H-share in the sector gained 10.5% last week and has gained 27.8% since the start of the Golden Week holiday.</p>
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<div>
<p>Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were net purchasers on the week, especially in the auto-related H-shares. The only liquid H in the sector which saw net selling by Southbound investors was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>. </p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> remain at the overbought end of the 52-week range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> are at or near 52-week wides, and Tsingtao is pretty close. </p>
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<p>There were no sector spread recommendations last week in this sector. </p>
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<p>For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</p>
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The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 




The first sector is Consumer, where H/A spreads widened on average 0.6% for the week, after running 3.5% wider the previous week. Individual stock movement in the sector was striking. BYD (1211 HK) and Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) narrowed on strong H-share performance in the week, and Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) widened, though Great Wall had a great week. The entire sector has had an absolutely phenomenal post-Golden Week run with all the auto-related stocks doing VERY well (but all of them seeing their H/A spreads widen over the period. The average H-share in the sector gained 10.5% last week and has gained 27.8% since the start of the Golden Week holiday.


Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were net purchasers on the week, especially in the auto-related H-shares. The only liquid H in the sector which saw net selling by Southbound investors was Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK). 


Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) remain at the overbought end of the 52-week range. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) are at or near 52-week wides, and Tsingtao is pretty close. 


There were no sector spread recommendations last week in this sector. 









For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/​​​A: Share Spread Monitor 6 Nov 2020

<div>
<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
<p>On average, </p>
<p>The first sector is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where H/A spreads widened on average 2.7% for the week, more than cancelling out the average 1.7% spread narrowing last week. With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, this happened as the H-shares rose strongly and the A-Shares rose even more strongly.  </p>
<p>Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were significant net sellers during the week in both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> where the net selling activity amounted to 15.5% and 22% of volume respectively. </p>
<p>Hisense remains at the overbought end of the 52-week range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> are now at 52-week wides. </p>
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<p>Last week's recommendation was to take off Hisense and the H-share fell 7.3% while the spread widened 0.7%. It is still probably worth unwinding. At this point, Great Wall and Guangzhou are worth a buy on a spread basis.</p>
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<p>For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</p>
</div>


The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 

On average, 
The first sector is Consumer, where H/A spreads widened on average 2.7% for the week, more than cancelling out the average 1.7% spread narrowing last week. With the exception of Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), this happened as the H-shares rose strongly and the A-Shares rose even more strongly.  
Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were significant net sellers during the week in both Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) and Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) where the net selling activity amounted to 15.5% and 22% of volume respectively. 
Hisense remains at the overbought end of the 52-week range. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) are now at 52-week wides. 

Last week's recommendation was to take off Hisense and the H-share fell 7.3% while the spread widened 0.7%. It is still probably worth unwinding. At this point, Great Wall and Guangzhou are worth a buy on a spread basis.





For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/​A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020

<p>This insight re-introduces a weekly monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads.</p>
<p>The monitor will be published every weekend for the data ending the previous week. It includes all stocks where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
<ul>
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the narrowest and widest spread and the average spread over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
<p>In the example for the H/A spreads in the <strong>Materials</strong> sector below, spreads were generally flat over the past five days and were wider by 1.5% over the past 20 days. Southbound were net buyers on average on the H side of each pair over both 5 days and 20 days. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-61153493-5437-47ee-a8d3-aec41fb7f1da" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a> are spreads at the relatively narrow end of their 52-week ranges, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-iron-steel-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:204:1" rel="noopener">Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel H (323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bbmg-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2821:1" rel="noopener">BBMG Corp H (2009 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopec-shanghai-petrochemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17576:1" rel="noopener">Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (338 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK)</a> are at the wider end of their 52-week ranges. The average spread in the sector widened somewhat dramatically in the month of August as seen on the chart, but stabilized at the beginning of September.</p>
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<p>Commentary is offered for the major movers and influences along with market observations on the sector rotation movement and particularly significant changes.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Recommendations are in highlights like this.</p>
</div>
<section class="figure">
<p>More below the fold.  </p>
<hr>
<p><em>By the way, there are two versions of the Spread Evolution mini charts. Input is welcomed in the Discussion section as to which one is preferred (bars or lines).</em></p>
</section>

This insight re-introduces a weekly monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads.
The monitor will be published every weekend for the data ending the previous week. It includes all stocks where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...

H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the narrowest and widest spread and the average spread over the last three years. 

In the example for the H/A spreads in the Materials sector below, spreads were generally flat over the past five days and were wider by 1.5% over the past 20 days. Southbound were net buyers on average on the H side of each pair over both 5 days and 20 days. Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK) and Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) are spreads at the relatively narrow end of their 52-week ranges, while Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel H (323 HK), BBMG Corp H (2009 HK), Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (338 HK), and Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK) are at the wider end of their 52-week ranges. The average spread in the sector widened somewhat dramatically in the month of August as seen on the chart, but stabilized at the beginning of September.






Commentary is offered for the major movers and influences along with market observations on the sector rotation movement and particularly significant changes.

Recommendations are in highlights like this.


More below the fold.  

By the way, there are two versions of the Spread Evolution mini charts. Input is welcomed in the Discussion section as to which one is preferred (bars or lines).


Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 16 Oct 2020

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

China Yangtze Power Co, Ltd. / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-yangtze-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3210:1" rel="noopener">China Yangtze Power Co, Ltd. (600900 CH)</a> (CYPC), the world's largest hydropower company, will put forward its GDR issuance proposal for shareholder voting in an EGM on 30 Jun. We take a look on this proposal which may raise up to ~US$3.3bn based on the current share price. We believe the key merits for CYPC are: 1.) largest hydropower company globally with protected franchise; 2.) benefit from government's clean energy initiatives; 3.) track record of stable earnings; and 4.) solid support from parent company.</p><p>Key risks, however, are: 1.) CYPC relies on one single type of generation mode; 2.) capex on acquisitions may further elevate gearing; 3.) slowdown in power demand; and 4.) overseas investment risks. The stock now trades on 17.9x FY20F PER, not excessive relative to the 5-year range of 13-27x, and upside will come from further asset injections from parent China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG).</p>

China Yangtze Power Co, Ltd. (600900 CH) (CYPC), the world's largest hydropower company, will put forward its GDR issuance proposal for shareholder voting in an EGM on 30 Jun. We take a look on this proposal which may raise up to ~US$3.3bn based on the current share price. We believe the key merits for CYPC are: 1.) largest hydropower company globally with protected franchise; 2.) benefit from government's clean energy initiatives; 3.) track record of stable earnings; and 4.) solid support from parent company.Key risks, however, are: 1.) CYPC relies on one single type of generation mode; 2.) capex on acquisitions may further elevate gearing; 3.) slowdown in power demand; and 4.) overseas investment risks. The stock now trades on 17.9x FY20F PER, not excessive relative to the 5-year range of 13-27x, and upside will come from further asset injections from parent China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG).

China Yangtze Power (600900 CH): Pre-GDR Initial Thoughts

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p>With the implementation of Hong Kong Connect in 2014, mainland Chinese investors could access the international market on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Over the past three years, Chinese investors have increased their holdings to an average of 9% of the free float in the shares eligible under the scheme. </p>
<p>In this series of insights, we will help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. Our discussion includes:</p>
<p>1) Which stocks are held the most by mainlanders?</p>
<p>2) Which stocks experience the most inflow and outflow by mainlanders?</p>
<p>We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: those with market capitalization of above USD 5 billion, those with market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and those with market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.</p>

With the implementation of Hong Kong Connect in 2014, mainland Chinese investors could access the international market on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Over the past three years, Chinese investors have increased their holdings to an average of 9% of the free float in the shares eligible under the scheme. 
In this series of insights, we will help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. Our discussion includes:
1) Which stocks are held the most by mainlanders?
2) Which stocks experience the most inflow and outflow by mainlanders?
We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: those with market capitalization of above USD 5 billion, those with market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and those with market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.

Discover HK Connect: What Mainlanders Are Buying (2018-12-03)

China

Huadian Power International Corporation Limited generates and sells electricity which is all fed into the Shandong Provincial Grid operated by Shandong Electric Power (Group) Corporation (SEPCO), the immediate holding company of the Company.  The Company also sells heat.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Huadian Power Intl Corp A (600027 CH)

China Yangtze Power (600900 CH): Pre-GDR Initial Thoughts

China Yangtze Power Co, Ltd. (600900 CH) (CYPC), the world's largest hydropower company, will put forward its GDR issuance proposal for shareholder...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Discover HK Connect: What Mainlanders Are Buying (2018-12-03)

With the implementation of Hong Kong Connect in 2014, mainland Chinese investors could access the international market on the Hong Kong Stock...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Weekly H/​​​A: Share Spread Monitor 6 Nov 2020

H/A spreads saw discounts narrow in what was a great week for a couple of sectors on an outright basis. Southbound inflows continue in financials...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/​A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020

Quiddity H/A Spread Monitor for the week ending 23 October 2020. Spreads widened in Consumer, narrowed in every other sector. Southbound were...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 16 Oct 2020

Weekly Monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads showing spread/discount performance, spread Z-scores, southbound buying and selling and net activity...

Travis Lundy

China Yangtze Power (600900 CH): Pre-GDR Initial Thoughts

China Yangtze Power Co, Ltd. (600900 CH) (CYPC), the world's largest hydropower company, will put forward its GDR issuance proposal for shareholder...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Discover HK Connect: What Mainlanders Are Buying (2018-12-03)

With the implementation of Hong Kong Connect in 2014, mainland Chinese investors could access the international market on the Hong Kong Stock...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 6 Nov 2020

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020