HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Power International / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15548:1" rel="noopener">China Power International (2380 HK)</a> (CPI) thinks that power storage in China will stay on in the near term, as supply-side structural issues are further exacerbated by cyclical demand issues. That said, the reform in power tariff will be a major policy direction in the future and will lead to a more market driven power sector in China. In our view, new/renewable energy sub-segment is likely to better place in the industry and we still prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK)</a>.However, we think CPI is more interesting than many power conglomerates. It has the highest proportion of clean/renewable installed capacity (47.1%) when compared with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power (836 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/datang-international-power-generation-company-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3664:1" rel="noopener">Datang International (991 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaneng-power-intl-inc-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28:1" rel="noopener">Huaneng Power Intl (902 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huadian-power-intl-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2506:1" rel="noopener">Huadian Power Intl (1071 HK)</a>, and this has also protected its 1H21 profit. Its plan to speed up disposal of coal-fired power plants also adds justification to its valuations. Relative to new energy plays' average of 18x PER and 2.1x P/B FY21F, CPI's 11.9x and 0.9x are clearly not expensive.

China Power International (2380 HK) (CPI) thinks that power storage in China will stay on in the near term, as supply-side structural issues are further exacerbated by cyclical demand issues. That said, the reform in power tariff will be a major policy direction in the future and will lead to a more market driven power sector in China. In our view, new/renewable energy sub-segment is likely to better place in the industry and we still prefer China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK).However, we think CPI is more interesting than many power conglomerates. It has the highest proportion of clean/renewable installed capacity (47.1%) when compared with China Resources Power (836 HK), Datang International (991 HK), Huaneng Power Intl (902 HK) and Huadian Power Intl (1071 HK), and this has also protected its 1H21 profit. Its plan to speed up disposal of coal-fired power plants also adds justification to its valuations. Relative to new energy plays' average of 18x PER and 2.1x P/B FY21F, CPI's 11.9x and 0.9x are clearly not expensive. 

China Power International (2380 HK): Industry and Company Updates, Looks Relatively Inexpensive

Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Vice Premier Han Zheng stressed the safe and stable supply of electricity for this winter and next spring through better planning and coordination on October 19. The Vice Premier emphasized expanding coal output and curbing coal hoarding and speculation.

Vice Premier Han Zheng stressed the safe and stable supply of electricity for this winter and next spring through better planning and coordination on October 19. The Vice Premier emphasized expanding coal output and curbing coal hoarding and speculation.

NDRC Studies Measures to Prevent Rising Coal Prices

Premier Li Keqiang emphasised ensuring stable energy supply and security and strengthening support for green development of energy sectors at the national energy committee meeting.
Premier Li stated some regions had set overly ambitious and unrealistic targets for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, while some industries failed to make solid energy-saving efforts in high-consuming sectors to prepare for this.

Premier Li Keqiang emphasised ensuring stable energy supply and security and strengthening support for green development of energy sectors at the national energy committee meeting.
Premier Li stated some regions had set overly ambitious and unrealistic targets for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, while some industries failed to make solid energy-saving efforts in high-consuming sectors to prepare for this.

Premier Li Keqiang Emphasises Energy Security and Stable Energy Supply

CBIRC issued a circular on strengthening financial support for coal-fired thermal power, coal, iron and steel and non-ferrous metals to ensure supplies and stabilise the commodity market.
China will allow coal-fired power prices to fluctuate by up to 20% from base levels, an increase on previously limits, to prevent high energy consumption, reported by Reuters, citing a meeting of the State Council.China had previously allowed coal-fired power prices to rise by 10% and fall by 15% from base levels.Local governments set on-grid power tariffs based on coal prices, prevuois  several provinces including Hunan Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have removed the 10% fluctuation limit from the local benchmark on-grid tariffs, due to a surge in coal prices.
Despite tariff hikes not being enough to offset coal price rises, the rapid extension of tariff hikes in provinces around the country should benefit major IPPs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaneng-power-intl-inc-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28:1" rel="noopener">Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/datang-international-power-generation-company-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3664:1" rel="noopener">Datang International (991 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huadian-power-intl-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2506:1" rel="noopener">Huadian Power Intl Corp H (1071 HK)</a>

CBIRC issued a circular on strengthening financial support for coal-fired thermal power, coal, iron and steel and non-ferrous metals to ensure supplies and stabilise the commodity market.
China will allow coal-fired power prices to fluctuate by up to 20% from base levels, an increase on previously limits, to prevent high energy consumption, reported by Reuters, citing a meeting of the State Council.China had previously allowed coal-fired power prices to rise by 10% and fall by 15% from base levels.Local governments set on-grid power tariffs based on coal prices, prevuois  several provinces including Hunan Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have removed the 10% fluctuation limit from the local benchmark on-grid tariffs, due to a surge in coal prices.
Despite tariff hikes not being enough to offset coal price rises, the rapid extension of tariff hikes in provinces around the country should benefit major IPPs Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK)Datang International (991 HK)Huadian Power Intl Corp H (1071 HK)

CBRIC Stresses Strengthening Financing Support for Coal, Coal-Fired Power

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Post market close on 28 May, the China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> that will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.There are 25 inclusions and exclusions in the review with an estimated one-way turnover of 3.67%.There are 10 trading days to implementation of the changes. There are 4 inclusions that will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive funds while there are 15 deletions that will have over 1 day of ADV to sell. The actual impact could be higher as cash and carry baskets are rebalanced and active managers reposition their portfolios to no deviate too far from their benchmark.The inclusions have outperformed the deletions by 15% over the last month and while there could be a pop in the returns over the next few sessions, we recommend gradually exiting existing positions and re-entering prior to implementation on a selloff in the trade.

Post market close on 28 May, the China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) that will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.There are 25 inclusions and exclusions in the review with an estimated one-way turnover of 3.67%.There are 10 trading days to implementation of the changes. There are 4 inclusions that will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive funds while there are 15 deletions that will have over 1 day of ADV to sell. The actual impact could be higher as cash and carry baskets are rebalanced and active managers reposition their portfolios to no deviate too far from their benchmark.The inclusions have outperformed the deletions by 15% over the last month and while there could be a pop in the returns over the next few sessions, we recommend gradually exiting existing positions and re-entering prior to implementation on a selloff in the trade.

CSI300 Index Rebalance: 25 Changes as Long/Short Trade Does Well

China

Huadian Power International Corporation Limited generates and sells electricity which is all fed into the Shandong Provincial Grid operated by Shandong Electric Power (Group) Corporation (SEPCO), the immediate holding company of the Company.  The Company also sells heat.

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Huadian Power Intl Corp A (600027 CH)

China Power International (2380 HK): Industry and Company Updates, Looks Relatively Inexpensive

China Power Intl is interesting as a new/renewable energy play among the traditional large power conglomerates in China. It has a high 47.1%...

Osbert Tang, CFA

NDRC Studies Measures to Prevent Rising Coal Prices

Vice Premier Han Zheng highlighted expanding the floating range of coal-fired electricity prices to alleviate heavy loss-making at coal-fired IPPs...

Li Tang

Premier Li Keqiang Emphasises Energy Security and Stable Energy Supply

Premier stressed rectifying one-size-fits-all approach in shutting down energy-intensive projects.This provides further signs of policymakers...

Li Tang

CBRIC Stresses Strengthening Financing Support for Coal, Coal-Fired Power

Despite tariff hikes not being enough to offset coal price rises, the rapid extension of tariff hikes in provinces around the country should...

Li Tang

CSI300 Index Rebalance: 25 Changes as Long/Short Trade Does Well

There are 25 changes to the CSI300 Index that will be implemented at the close on 11 June. One-way turnover is 3.67% and the adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

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