Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Orient Overseas International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao</a> plus the deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings</a> takes us to 69 index stocks.</li>
<li>Changes to the stocks, number of shares, float and capping result in an estimated one-way turnover is 3.43% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$7,444m.</li>
<li>There is huge short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a> and there could be some short covering from now to implementation.</li>
</ul>


The inclusion of Orient Overseas International, Zhongsheng Group, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and China Hongqiao plus the deletion of AAC Technologies Holdings takes us to 69 index stocks.
Changes to the stocks, number of shares, float and capping result in an estimated one-way turnover is 3.43% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$7,444m.
There is huge short interest on Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) and China Hongqiao (1378 HK) and there could be some short covering from now to implementation.


HSI Index Rebalance: Four Weddings & A Funeral

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry. </li>
<li>Overall, the total value increased US$12.5bn in the past week, with Shanghai accounting for US$5.7bn and Shenzhen US$6.8bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> is the dominant holding across both programs</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glory-sun-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17758:1" rel="noopener">Glory Sun Financial Group Limited (1282 HK)</a> saw the biggest upward movement as the chairman sold to pay off debt. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-south-city-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8205:1" rel="noopener">China South City (1668 HK)</a> was reduced by both programs. </li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry. 
Overall, the total value increased US$12.5bn in the past week, with Shanghai accounting for US$5.7bn and Shenzhen US$6.8bn. Tencent (700 HK) is the dominant holding across both programs

Glory Sun Financial Group Limited (1282 HK) saw the biggest upward movement as the chairman sold to pay off debt. China South City (1668 HK) was reduced by both programs. 


Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (20 May 2022)

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There appears to be far less geopolitical risk with Singapore's banks than large globals</li>
<li>Impairment costs may be the best risk gauge, but also lending appetite</li>
<li>High oil prices and rising rates can both be highly positive to net profit</li>
</ul>


There appears to be far less geopolitical risk with Singapore's banks than large globals
Impairment costs may be the best risk gauge, but also lending appetite
High oil prices and rising rates can both be highly positive to net profit


Singapore Banks - Limited Geopolitical Risk

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.
Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.

China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.


Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Latest earning show all of margin gain offset by worsening impairment costs</li>
<li>One may argue that in the coming year the bank will finally fire on all cylinders</li>
<li>It is not clear if recommended break-up of HSBC will come through or if it would help</li>
</ul>


Latest earning show all of margin gain offset by worsening impairment costs
One may argue that in the coming year the bank will finally fire on all cylinders
It is not clear if recommended break-up of HSBC will come through or if it would help


United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

HSI Index Rebalance: Four Weddings & A Funeral

There are 4 adds & 1 delete to take the number of HSI members to 69. There is reasonable impact on the stocks and huge short interest on some of...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (20 May 2022)

Overall, the total value increased US$12.5bn, with Shanghai accounting for US$5.7bn and Shenzhen US$6.8bn. Glory Sun saw the biggest upward...

David Blennerhassett

Singapore Banks - Limited Geopolitical Risk

There appears to be less geopolitical risk with Singapore's banks than some other large global banks. Singapore's banks can better benefit from...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Short notional in Korea and Taiwan has been increasing as the market has been moving lower. Shorts on China Merchant Bank have been covered in...

Brian Freitas

HSBC - Will All Cylinders Ever Fire?

Core income gain from rising rates was grossly offset by other line items at HSBC. It is unclear if this will reverse in coming quarters, with a...

Daniel Tabbush

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