Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There may be overly optimistic expectations for BOC HK's credit costs, which have been relatively benign for many years. </li>
<li>Worsening economic developments in Hong Kong and China suggest that BOC HK will show a dramatic deterioration in credit metrics in coming interim results. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Hong Kong is now hitting zero and funding cost growth has been extravagant, making for a poor combination to net interest income. </li>
</ul>


There may be overly optimistic expectations for BOC HK's credit costs, which have been relatively benign for many years. 
Worsening economic developments in Hong Kong and China suggest that BOC HK will show a dramatic deterioration in credit metrics in coming interim results. 
Loan growth in Hong Kong is now hitting zero and funding cost growth has been extravagant, making for a poor combination to net interest income. 


BOC HK - Credit Costs Have Flat Lined for Years, a Blow Out in 2H23 or 1H24 Can Be a Shock

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 26th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 26th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 26th): Tencent

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 19th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in HSBC, China Mobile, Shk Ppt, Wuxi Bio, Kuaishou, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 19th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in HSBC, China Mobile, Shk Ppt, Wuxi Bio, Kuaishou, Li Auto.


HK Short Interest Weekly: HSBC, China Mobile, Shk Ppt, Wuxi Bio, Kuaishou, Li Auto

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$335bn and has been falling over the last 12 months due to a drop in the market.</li>
<li>In terms of short notional to marketcap, the Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate sectors are most shorted while the least shorted are Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy.</li>
<li>The largest shorts have been built on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (1398)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$335bn and has been falling over the last 12 months due to a drop in the market.
In terms of short notional to marketcap, the Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate sectors are most shorted while the least shorted are Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy.
The largest shorts have been built on BYD (1211), XPeng (9868), ICBC (1398), Xiaomi (1810), Link REIT (823), JD.com (9618), Wharf Holdings (4) and New World Development (17). 


Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.


United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

BOC HK - Credit Costs Have Flat Lined for Years, a Blow Out in 2H23 or 1H24 Can Be a Shock

BOC HK has seen credit costs flat line for some years, possibly making it appear as though this bank does not experience credit cycles. Long term...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 26th): Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight southbound Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: HSBC, China Mobile, Shk Ppt, Wuxi Bio, Kuaishou, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 19th and highlight short interest changes in HSBC, China Mobile, Shk...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

HK Short notional HK$335bn and has been falling over the last year due to a drop in the market. There are stocks where shorts have risen over the...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 19th): CCB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight southbound Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)