Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HSBC holds 19% of BoCom and still carries it with a value of USD23.3bn despite the stock market valuation putting it closer to USD8.1bn on YE22 figures. </li>
<li>The bank cites its Value In Use testing as the justifiable reason for this gap, and this testing will include major assumptions like discount rates and long term growth rates.</li>
<li>Goodwill and other intangible charges were USD10.6bn in FY08, USD3.4bn in FY16, and USD7.4bn in FY19 for HSBC. </li>
</ul>


HSBC holds 19% of BoCom and still carries it with a value of USD23.3bn despite the stock market valuation putting it closer to USD8.1bn on YE22 figures. 
The bank cites its Value In Use testing as the justifiable reason for this gap, and this testing will include major assumptions like discount rates and long term growth rates.
Goodwill and other intangible charges were USD10.6bn in FY08, USD3.4bn in FY16, and USD7.4bn in FY19 for HSBC. 


HSBC - Gap of USD15bn on Carrying Value Vs Fair Value of BoCom, as China Economy Weakens More

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>HSBC Holdings Plc Wednesday reported a $3 billion write-down on its stake in a Chinese bank, underscoring challenges the British lender faces in one of its key growth markets.</li><li>Europe’s largest bank by assets took a charge on its 19.03% holding in Bank of Communications Co. Ltd. (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/601328.SH" target="_blank" rel="noopener">601328.SH</a> +1.41%), one of China’s biggest state-owned banks, after a reassessment of the accounting value-in-use, the bank said in a release of its fourth quarter financial results.</li><li>The reassessment compared the future cash flow from the asset, discounted for underlying risk, with the stake’s carrying value, which measures the cost of the asset minus depreciation factors.</li></ul>

HSBC Holdings Plc Wednesday reported a $3 billion write-down on its stake in a Chinese bank, underscoring challenges the British lender faces in one of its key growth markets.Europe’s largest bank by assets took a charge on its 19.03% holding in Bank of Communications Co. Ltd. (601328.SH +1.41%), one of China’s biggest state-owned banks, after a reassessment of the accounting value-in-use, the bank said in a release of its fourth quarter financial results.The reassessment compared the future cash flow from the asset, discounted for underlying risk, with the stake’s carrying value, which measures the cost of the asset minus depreciation factors.

HSBC Takes $3 Billion Charge on BoCom Holdings 

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 11/Oct, US crude inventories decreased by 2.2m barrels, diverging from expectations of a 1.8m barrel build. Additionally, gasoline and distillate stockpiles also declined more than anticipated.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 76 Bcf for the week ending 11/Oct, lower than analyst expectations of an 80 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, analysts kept their Buy ratings on Reliance despite its net profit falling by 4.8% YoY.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 11/Oct, US crude inventories decreased by 2.2m barrels, diverging from expectations of a 1.8m barrel build. Additionally, gasoline and distillate stockpiles also declined more than anticipated.
US natural gas inventories rose 76 Bcf for the week ending 11/Oct, lower than analyst expectations of an 80 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, analysts kept their Buy ratings on Reliance despite its net profit falling by 4.8% YoY.


[ETP 2024/42] WTI Falls as Supply Disruption Fears Subside, Nat-Gas Slides on Weaker Demand Outlook

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Third Plenum / Cover Story: China charts course for future growth with major reforms at key meeting</li><li>Investors /: China tweaks regulations to ease the way for qualified foreign investors</li><li>HSBC /: Former Credit Suisse exec appointed HSBC China’s head of global banking, document shows</li></ul>

Third Plenum / Cover Story: China charts course for future growth with major reforms at key meetingInvestors /: China tweaks regulations to ease the way for qualified foreign investorsHSBC /: Former Credit Suisse exec appointed HSBC China’s head of global banking, document shows

CX Daily:  China Charts Course for Future Growth with Major Reforms at Key Meeting 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks</li>
<li>The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses</li>
<li>The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles </li>
</ul>


Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks
The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses
The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles 


United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance. HSBC Holdings operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (HSBC US)

HSBC - Gap of USD15bn on Carrying Value Vs Fair Value of BoCom, as China Economy Weakens More

HSBC still carries its 19% investment in BoCom at a very high value compared with the market value and with a far weaker China outlook, we are not...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC Takes $3 Billion Charge on BoCom Holdings

HSBC Holdings Plc Wednesday reported a $3 billion write-down on its stake in a Chinese bank, underscoring challenges the British lender faces in...

Caixin Global

[ETP 2024/42] WTI Falls as Supply Disruption Fears Subside, Nat-Gas Slides on Weaker Demand Outlook

US oil inventories see a surprise fall, while US nat-gas stock rises less than expected. Chevron sees a target price upgrade while HSBC expects a...

Mint Finance

CX Daily: China Charts Course for Future Growth with Major Reforms at Key Meeting

Third Plenum / Cover Story: China charts course for future growth with major reforms at key meeting At a key meeting held only twice a decade and...

Caixin Global

US Banks - Buy Now, Default Later?

Credit card defaults can be major risk for US card companies and banks. Credit cards and net charge-offs are surging. Macro data on credit card...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSBC - Gap of USD15bn on Carrying Value Vs Fair Value of BoCom, as China Economy Weakens More

HSBC still carries its 19% investment in BoCom at a very high value compared with the market value and with a far weaker China outlook, we are not...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC Takes $3 Billion Charge on BoCom Holdings

HSBC Holdings Plc Wednesday reported a $3 billion write-down on its stake in a Chinese bank, underscoring challenges the British lender faces in...

Caixin Global

[ETP 2024/42] WTI Falls as Supply Disruption Fears Subside, Nat-Gas Slides on Weaker Demand Outlook

​US oil inventories see a surprise fall, while US nat-gas stock rises less than expected. Chevron sees a target price upgrade while HSBC expects a...

Mint Finance

CX Daily: China Charts Course for Future Growth with Major Reforms at Key Meeting

Third Plenum / Cover Story: China charts course for future growth with major reforms at key meeting At a key meeting held only twice a decade and...

Caixin Global

US Banks - Buy Now, Default Later?

Credit card defaults can be major risk for US card companies and banks. Credit cards and net charge-offs are surging. Macro data on credit card...

Daniel Tabbush

US oil inventories see a surprise fall, while US nat-gas stock rises less than expected. Chevron sees a target price upgrade while HSBC expects a...