Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In a surprise move, the Central bank (RBI) today maintained the policy rate at the current level of 6.25% but changed the monetary policy stance to neutral. The 6 member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was unanimous in its decision to hold rates. The consensus was again caught on the wrong foot as majority expected a rate cut. Key rationale behind the move has been the adoption of 4% inflation target for the next financial year (ending March 2018). Even as current CPI inflation at 3.4% is well…

In a surprise move, the Central bank (RBI) today maintained the policy rate at the current level of 6.25% but changed the monetary policy stance to neutral. The 6 member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was unanimous in its decision to hold rates. The consensus was again caught on the wrong foot as majority expected a rate cut. Key rationale behind the move has been the adoption of 4% inflation target for the next financial year (ending March 2018). Even as current CPI inflation at 3.4% is well…

RBI Spoils the Bond Market Party - Prices Unlikely to Scale the Peaks Seen After Demonetization

The Government presented a fiscally sound budget and avoided any major steps to boost expenditure and mitigate the shock of demonetization. Catching the street by a little surprise, the government stuck to the Fiscal responsibility act and reduced the fiscal deficit target for the year ending March'18 to 3.2% of GDP (vs 3.5% in March'17).  Relief has been provided on the personal income side to low and middle-income earners (people with salaries in Rs 0.25m-0.5m range) where the tax has been…

The Government presented a fiscally sound budget and avoided any major steps to boost expenditure and mitigate the shock of demonetization. Catching the street by a little surprise, the government stuck to the Fiscal responsibility act and reduced the fiscal deficit target for the year ending March'18 to 3.2% of GDP (vs 3.5% in March'17).  Relief has been provided on the personal income side to low and middle-income earners (people with salaries in Rs 0.25m-0.5m range) where the tax has been…

Budget a Non-Event as Govt Plays Safe; Falling Yields to Shift Asset Allocation to Equities

Small & Mid Cap focused Value Investor

Gokul Raj. P

Equity Bottom-Up

Indiabulls Housing Finance / Equity Bottom-Up

Indiabulls stock is up 18% from our initial coverage note a month back. We believe the major reason for this re-rating is the increasing belief on the street that the whole demonetization exercise hasn't affected the mortgage finance space and has instead brought clarity to investors about the inherent strength of the mortgage finance business model and the large growth opportunities therein. It is not just Indiabulls, but the entire mortgage finance space (Gruh Finance, DHFL, PNB Housing…

Indiabulls stock is up 18% from our initial coverage note a month back. We believe the major reason for this re-rating is the increasing belief on the street that the whole demonetization exercise hasn't affected the mortgage finance space and has instead brought clarity to investors about the inherent strength of the mortgage finance business model and the large growth opportunities therein. It is not just Indiabulls, but the entire mortgage finance space (Gruh Finance, DHFL, PNB Housing…

Indiabulls Housing - Q3 FY 17 Results Strengthens Our Investment Thesis !!

India

Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. HDFC provides housing finance company. The Company provides wide range of housing loans, loan for home improvement, extensions, top ups, and non housing loans and loans for non resident Indian (NRI). HDFC serves customers in India, kuwait, Singapore, Oman, UAE, and the United Kingdom.

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HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)

Money Matters: US Inflation & The Fed

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: I Mera Tis Marmotas

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of...

Stewart Paterson

RBI Spoils the Bond Market Party - Prices Unlikely to Scale the Peaks Seen After Demonetization

In a surprise move, the Central bank (RBI) today maintained the policy rate at the current level of 6.25% but changed the monetary policy stance to...

Asia Advisors

Budget a Non-Event as Govt Plays Safe; Falling Yields to Shift Asset Allocation to Equities

The Government presented a fiscally sound budget and avoided any major steps to boost expenditure and mitigate the shock of demonetization....

Asia Advisors

Indiabulls Housing - Q3 FY 17 Results Strengthens Our Investment Thesis !!

Indiabulls stock is up 18% from our initial coverage note a month back. We believe the major reason for this re-rating is the increasing belief on...

Gokul Raj. P

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