Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber Technologies (UBER US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jabil-circuit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16674:1" rel="noopener">Jabil Circuit (JBL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/builders-firstsource-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4720:1" rel="noopener">Builders Firstsource (BLDR US)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 15 December.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of inclusions. deletions and migrations across the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, the S&amp;P Midcap 400 Index, and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy around US$18bn of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber Technologies (UBER US)</a>. There has been positioning in the stock for just over a month now. </li>
</ul>



Uber Technologies (UBER US), Jabil Circuit (JBL US) and Builders Firstsource (BLDR US) will be added to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) at the close on 15 December.
There are a bunch of inclusions. deletions and migrations across the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), the S&amp;P Midcap 400 Index, and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy around US$18bn of Uber Technologies (UBER US). There has been positioning in the stock for just over a month now. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Breadth has expanded significantly in recent weeks with the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking above major 2.5-year resistance at $210; $210 is now critical support moving forward.</li>
<li>Technology/Large-Cap growth/Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has consolidated after getting extended, and with June 12 gap support on QQQ getting filled/breaking today, it appears this pullback is likely to continue.</li>
<li>The SPX is breaking its 20-day MA. June 12th gap at 5375-5409 is potential support, but it appears a pullback in the SPX and QQQ may be headed to 5191/$449.</li>
</ul>


Breadth has expanded significantly in recent weeks with the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking above major 2.5-year resistance at $210; $210 is now critical support moving forward.
Technology/Large-Cap growth/Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has consolidated after getting extended, and with June 12 gap support on QQQ getting filled/breaking today, it appears this pullback is likely to continue.
The SPX is breaking its 20-day MA. June 12th gap at 5375-5409 is potential support, but it appears a pullback in the SPX and QQQ may be headed to 5191/$449.


Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

<ul>
<li>The announcement of the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber Technologies (UBER US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.</li>
<li>There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KWEB US</a>.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.</li>
</ul>


The announcement of the inclusion of Uber Technologies (UBER US) in the S&amp;P 500 INDEX was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.
There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and KWEB US.
Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>This insight provides a quick summary of gross/annualised (where possible) spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and how those spreads have changed over the last week; plus the next hard events over the coming weeks.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>I number 40, mostly firm, deals around the region.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


This insight provides a quick summary of gross/annualised (where possible) spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and how those spreads have changed over the last week; plus the next hard events over the coming weeks.


I number 40, mostly firm, deals around the region.


More below the fold.


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Shinsei Bank, Aussie Pharma, Ebook Initiative, Smartgroup


For the month of September, 9 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.



Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.







New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Ausnet Services (AST AU) 
Transmission
7.0
Scheme
31%



AusNet Services (AST AU) Opens Its Books to Brookfield
AusNet Services (AST AU): Spurned APA Trumps Brookfield's Proposal
AusNet (AST AU): APA Elevates Tussle With Brookfield And Taps Takeover Panel




Ale Property (LEP AU) 
Pub properties
0.8
Scheme
N/A


ALE-Charter Hall: A Post-Lockdown Bet on Australian Pubs



Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU) 
Employee services
1.0
Scheme
31.7%


Smartgroup (SIQ AU): Indicative Offer From TPG/Potential Capital/Aware Super



Japan




Maxvalu Nishinihon (8287 JP) / Fuji Co Ltd (8278 JP) 
Supermarkets
1.6
Merger
N/A


Fuji (8278) &amp; Maxvalu Nishinihon (8287): Aeon Family Supermarket Integration



Nippo Corp (1881 JP) 
Contractor
2.0
Tender Offer
13.8%



ENEOS To Steamroll Nippo (1881 JP) Minorities
NIPPO (1881 JP) Gets Some Cowbell - It Probably Needs More




Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) 
Financial
1.0
Hostile Offer
38.9%



SBI (8473) Launches a HOSTILE Tender Offer on Shinsei Bank (8303)!
Shinsei Bank - Valuations
Shinsei Looks To A Poison Pill, But Probably Not Really
Shinsei To Launch a Poison Pill; SBI Plays Coy, So We Wait SBI &amp; Shinsei Talking Past Each Other  




Malaysia




Scientex Bhd (SCI MK) 
Real estate
0.1
VTO
12.97%


Scientex - Daibochi: Unconditional Voluntary Take-Over Offer



Singapore








Roxy Pacific Holdings (ROXY SP) 
Real estate
0.3
Offer
19.8%


Roxy-Pacific (ROXY SP): Pre-Conditional Offer Led By Founder



US




iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US) 
Online marketer
0.6
Merger
19%


IClick (ICLK US): PAG &amp; Oasis Shake The Trees


Source: Smartkarma Insights






The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in September was ~24%, with a year-to-date average of ~32% (121 deals &amp; total deal size of US$249bn).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively.



Offer Premium Summary




     




2019


2020


2021 YTD



Australia
33.0%
32.4%
34.9%


Hong Kong
25.2%
34.7%
33.9%


Japan
44.0%
35.2%
28.4%


ROW
29.1%
24.2%
33.1%


Average
31.5%
31.1%
32.4%



Source: Smartkarma Insights








Summary of News in September of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar


(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




1300 Smiles Ltd (ONT AU) 

No September update




5G Networks Ltd/Australia (5GN AU) / Webcentral (WCG AU) 

No September update




Afterpay Touch (APT AU) 

No September update




Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU) 

17-Sep:  Aussie Pharma (API AU): Wesfarmer's Sweetened (Yet Indicative) Offer
27-Sep: Aussie Pharma (API AU): Sigma's Rival Bid (Just) Edges Wesfarmers
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)'s corporate affairs manager said due diligence can commence immediately. As API indicated that Sigma's NBIO was capable of being superior, it opened up access. So much for exclusive DD.




Empired Ltd (EPD AU) 

25-Sep: Empired (EPD AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 25 October




Hansen Technologies (HSN AU) 

5-Sep: And it's a no deal - BGH withdraws its proposal for Hansen Technologies (HSN AU).
 
"Having conducted extensive due diligence inquiries in relation to the company, BGH has not notified Hansen of any issue which Hansen considers material in the context of Hansen’s current operations and strategy. BGH Capital has advised the company that it continues to see Hansen as a highly effective organisation with an outstanding management team and strong prospects."




iCar Asia Ltd (ICQ AU) 

9-Sep: Carsome has requested an extension of the exclusivity period under the process deed with iCar Asia Ltd (ICQ AU), such that the exclusivity period is extended initially to the 30 September, then to automatically to the 30 October provided Casome has completed DD by the 30 Sept. Ithe board is currently minded to agree to this request.




Huon Aquaculture (HUO AU) 

23-Sep: Huon Aquaculture (HUO AU)'s Scheme Booklet is out. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 29 October, with expected implementation on the 8 November.  28-Sep: The effective date under JBS' Offer has been changed to the 3 November from 4 November previously. 




Iress Ltd (IRE AU) 

16-Sep: Another deal failure. EGT and Iress Ltd (IRE AU) have been unable to agree to a transaction. 




Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) 

18-Sep: Japara Healthcare (JHC AU): 21st October Scheme Meeting




Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 
No September update



Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) 

3-Sep: Marvelous Milton Merger Mapping Mabbled: Ratio Done, Now For The Hard Part
17-Sep: Marvelous Milton and WHSP (SOL AU) Index Event Prepositioning Analysis




Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU) 

10-Sep: Oil Search/Santos: PNG a Potential Party Pooper




Rhipe Ltd (RHP AU) 

9-Sep: Rhipe (RHP AU): Done Deal As Scheme Booklet Dispatched




Spark Infrastructure (SKI AU) 

No September update




Sydney Airport (SYD AU) 

13-Sep:  Sydney Airport (SYD AU): Consortium Ups Bid And Granted Due Diligence




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

29-Sep: Shareholders approved the Scheme




Youfoodz Holdings (YFZ AU) 

2-Sep: Youfoodz Holdings (YFZ AU) announced that the Federal court of Australia has approved the convening of Scheme Meeting and despatch of Scheme Booklet. The Scheme Meeting will be conducted as a virtual meeting (video conference) at 10.00 am (Sydney time) on Friday, 8th October 2021.










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK) 

23-Sep: Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK) H shareholders overwhelmingly approve the merger. The last day of trading in shares is today - the 24th.  Payment is expected on or before the 8 November. 




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 

No September update




Golden Throat Holdings (6896 HK) 

1-Sep: As expected, Golden Throat Holdings (6896 HK) has pushed out the dispatch date for the Scheme Dochemnt to the 19 October (on or before). 



Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)

16-Sep: Partial closes for Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) - 89.6% pro-ration. Not bad. 




Nature Home Holding Company (2083 HK) 

14-Sep: Nature Home (2083 HK): Scheme Doc Out. Court Meeting On 6 Oct. Evergrande Overhang
28-Sep: Nature Home (2083 HK): Risk Aversity Sees Spread Blow Out




Suchuang Gas Corp (1430 HK) 

27-Sep: Shares suspended for some reason.




Soho China Ltd (410 HK) 

10-Sep: Another deal break.










India


Comments 




Adani Power (ADANI IN) 

No September update




Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) 

No September update










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




GCA Corporation (2174 JP) 

9-Sep: Houlihan Lokey Bumps the GCA Offer - A Whopping 1.3%!!!
28-Sep: The Houlihan Lokey (HLI US) takeout of GCA Corporation (2174 JP) is on its way. The Tender Offer Result was just announced and HLI has 89.58%. That means there will be an EGM and squeezeout. 




Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) 

No September update




Sakai Ovex (3408 JP) 
9-Sep: The Sakai Ovex (3408 JP) Tender Offer has been completed successfully. 
The bidders did not get as much as I thought they might, but the top owner has 77.27%.  That means the squeezeout will go through an EGM and this will be delisted maybe a month after the EGM.










Malaysia


Comments 




Ijm Plantations (IJMP MK) 
No September update



MMC Corp Bhd (MMC MK) 
22-Sep: MMC Corp (MMC MK): This Is A Buy








New Zealand


Comments 




Z Energy Ltd (ZEL NZ) 
27-Sep: Z Energy Ltd (ZEL NZ) announced that the original four-week exclusivity period with Ampol has been extended by a further two weeks.









Taiwan


Comments (with links to insights &amp; announcements)




China Development Financial (2883 TT) / China Life Insurance (2823 TT)

No September update












(Mostly) Asia M&A: September 2021 Roundup

United States

Houlihan Lokey, Inc. operates as an investment bank. The Company offers mergers and acquisitions, financial restructuring, capital markets, strategic consulting, and financial advisory services. Houlihan Lokey serves customers worldwide.

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Houlihan Lokey (HLI US)

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER

Passive S&P500 index trackers will need to buy around US$18bn of Uber in two weeks. Positioning in the stock began a month ago and just ahead of Q3...

Brian Freitas

Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $IWM Still Above Major Support at $210, but $SPX $QQQ are in Pullback Mode. Possible this...

Vermilion Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Shinsei Bank, Aussie Pharma, Ebook Initiative, Smartgroup

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: September 2021 Roundup

For the month of September, 9 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an announced deal size of ~US$14bn. The average premium in September was...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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