Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The carnage in China and some Hong Kong real estate and property management companies and financials went largely unnoticed.</li><li>The five-day decline in Longfor was 18%, Country Garden by 15.50%, Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index fell 6.75%, and HSI Properties Index fell 2.75%.</li><li>It has had zero impact on the rest of the world (ROW) markets.</li></ul>

The carnage in China and some Hong Kong real estate and property management companies and financials went largely unnoticed.The five-day decline in Longfor was 18%, Country Garden by 15.50%, Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index fell 6.75%, and HSI Properties Index fell 2.75%.It has had zero impact on the rest of the world (ROW) markets.

HSI Index: Longfor, Alibaba, Ping An, and Tencent

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>HSI remains a top short bet from the C wave dual top at 22,500, the break below wedge support and now the bear triangulation support breach targets new lows.</li>
<li>A50 weakness is weighing on HK. HSI clear break down will lead the upcoming risk off cycle in Asia.</li>
<li>We like adding to a short on upticks with near resistance at 20,500. 19,700 is the pivot support to break below that will open the way to 18,200.</li>
</ul>


HSI remains a top short bet from the C wave dual top at 22,500, the break below wedge support and now the bear triangulation support breach targets new lows.
A50 weakness is weighing on HK. HSI clear break down will lead the upcoming risk off cycle in Asia.
We like adding to a short on upticks with near resistance at 20,500. 19,700 is the pivot support to break below that will open the way to 18,200.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> currently has a Secondary Listing in Hong Kong and is looking to become dual primary listed in Hong Kong and the U.S.</li>
<li>The main change will be inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect program where mainland investors will be able to buy the stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> is capped at 8% in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> and is close to 8% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a>, there will be negligible impact on the dividend futures.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group (9988 HK) currently has a Secondary Listing in Hong Kong and is looking to become dual primary listed in Hong Kong and the U.S.
The main change will be inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect program where mainland investors will be able to buy the stock.

Alibaba Group (9988 HK) is capped at 8% in the HSCEI INDEX and is close to 8% of the HSI INDEX, there will be negligible impact on the dividend futures.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing Implications

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Covid-19 / In Depth: Lockdowns expose Covid’s cost on mental health in China</li><li>Shanghai / Shanghai tells employers not to reject recovered Covid-19 job seekers</li><li>Banking / Henan to reimburse depositors following violent protests</li></ul>

Covid-19 / In Depth: Lockdowns expose Covid’s cost on mental health in ChinaShanghai / Shanghai tells employers not to reject recovered Covid-19 job seekersBanking / Henan to reimburse depositors following violent protests

CX Daily: Lockdowns Expose Covid’s Cost on Mental Health in China

<ul>
<li>Currently at 69 constituents, it is unlikely that we reach 80 member by year end. Hang Seng Indexes is finding it tough to reach the target by excluding unprofitable companies.</li>
<li>We list 11 stocks that could be added to the index in September - with one-way turnover just over 5%, the actual number of inclusions will be lower.</li>
<li>There are a few potential inclusions where short interest is over 5% of the free float. These stocks could see short covering ahead of announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


Currently at 69 constituents, it is unlikely that we reach 80 member by year end. Hang Seng Indexes is finding it tough to reach the target by excluding unprofitable companies.
We list 11 stocks that could be added to the index in September - with one-way turnover just over 5%, the actual number of inclusions will be lower.
There are a few potential inclusions where short interest is over 5% of the free float. These stocks could see short covering ahead of announcement of the changes.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Finding the Balance

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

HSI Index: Longfor, Alibaba, Ping An, and Tencent

The carnage in China and some Hong Kong real estate and property management companies and financials went largely unnoticed.

Untying The Gordian Knot

HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia

HSI remains a top short bet from the C wave dual top at 22,500, the break below wedge support and now the bear triangulation support breach targets...

Thomas Schroeder

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing Implications

Alibaba is looking to change its HK listing from Secondary to Dual Primary. This will make the stock eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. A...

Brian Freitas

CX Daily: Lockdowns Expose Covid’s Cost on Mental Health in China

Covid-19 / In Depth: Lockdowns expose Covid’s cost on mental health in China. Shanghai / Shanghai tells employers not to reject recovered Covid-19...

Caixin Global

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Finding the Balance

There could be up to 5 inclusions as Hang Seng works its way up to 80 index members. We highlight the probable inclusions and find that some of...

Brian Freitas