Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>As we move beyond the final Fed decision of the year, we can speculate on how the EM space may respond to Powell’s press conference tonight.</li><li>Before diving into that, let’s discuss some recent developments that have occurred in China since our last update on the situation in Beijing.</li><li>While the market and all the mainstream news outlets have been awaiting the third plenum to take place in vain,  China’s Central Economic Work Conference was held the past two days.</li></ul>

As we move beyond the final Fed decision of the year, we can speculate on how the EM space may respond to Powell’s press conference tonight.Before diving into that, let’s discuss some recent developments that have occurred in China since our last update on the situation in Beijing.While the market and all the mainstream news outlets have been awaiting the third plenum to take place in vain,  China’s Central Economic Work Conference was held the past two days.

EM by EM #34: Xi’s Whip and Powell’s Kneeling

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets.</li>
<li>Japan will suffer from base effects on economic data and earnings this year as JPY move reverses.</li>
<li>Year end Positioning could provide attractive entry points for both legs.</li>
</ul>


Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets.
Japan will suffer from base effects on economic data and earnings this year as JPY move reverses.
Year end Positioning could provide attractive entry points for both legs.


2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 1

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rept-battero-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36626:1" rel="noopener">REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH)</a> is looking to raise up to HK$2.39bn (US$306m) in its IPO by selling 116.07m shares at HK$20.6/share, valuing the company at HK$46.9bn (US$6bn).</li>
<li>The H-share market cap is a lot lower at HK$6.33bn (US$811m) since most of the pre-IPO shares will remain as Domestic Unlisted Shares.</li>
<li>The stock will be eligible for HSCI inclusion in March but will need to trade higher than the upper end of the IPO range to be added to the index.</li>
</ul>



REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH) is looking to raise up to HK$2.39bn (US$306m) in its IPO by selling 116.07m shares at HK$20.6/share, valuing the company at HK$46.9bn (US$6bn).
The H-share market cap is a lot lower at HK$6.33bn (US$811m) since most of the pre-IPO shares will remain as Domestic Unlisted Shares.
The stock will be eligible for HSCI inclusion in March but will need to trade higher than the upper end of the IPO range to be added to the index.


REPT BATTERO (0666 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Despite the USD declining and OPEC pledging more production cuts, oil has entered a Bear Market. We discuss the disadvantages of being a (price) cartel.</li>
<li>Will the Bank of Japan finally end its extremely loose monetary policy? While investors are betting it will happen as soon as mid-December, the latest inflation data and previous statements of central bank Governor Ueda suggest otherwise.</li>
<li>Next to Federal Reserve hopium, the unanimous embracing of the soft landing, liquidity has boosted equities and other liquidity-driven asset classes like Bitcoin and Gold. </li>
</ul>


Despite the USD declining and OPEC pledging more production cuts, oil has entered a Bear Market. We discuss the disadvantages of being a (price) cartel.
Will the Bank of Japan finally end its extremely loose monetary policy? While investors are betting it will happen as soon as mid-December, the latest inflation data and previous statements of central bank Governor Ueda suggest otherwise.
Next to Federal Reserve hopium, the unanimous embracing of the soft landing, liquidity has boosted equities and other liquidity-driven asset classes like Bitcoin and Gold. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Oil & China Bear Markets, but Liquidity Saves the Day!

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.</li><li>To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

EM by EM #34: Xi’s Whip and Powell’s Kneeling

Despite aiming for growth, China won’t employ potent fiscal or monetary policies; instead, the focus is on boosting confidence and shaping a...

Steno Research

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 1

A correct market allocation over stock specific allocation will define a successful year in 2024. Changing economic dynamics will mean the Japanese...

Rikki Malik

REPT BATTERO (0666 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

REPT BATTERO is looking to raise up to HK$2.39bn in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$46.9bn (US$6bn). HSCI (and consequently Stock Connect)...

Brian Freitas

The Weekly Market Monitor – Oil & China Bear Markets, but Liquidity Saves the Day!

Investments highlighted: Oil, Gold, Copper, Commodities, Japanese Yen, Nikkei, Chinese equities, Hang Seng Index, Bitcoin, and US Treasuries.

Jeroen Blokland

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research