Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hang-seng-index-faf-calculation-change-buy-the-dip" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.</li>
<li>Following a sharp drop to 19260, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.</li>
<li>The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. <strong>Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


In our previous insight we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the HSI INDEX in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.
Following a sharp drop to 19260, the Hang Seng Index staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.
The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.



HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>A noticeable shift in tone this week, with participation broadening and price action turning constructive.</li>
<li>Implied vols declined across most names, unwinding last week’s spike but still sitting above historical medians.</li>
<li>Call activity bounced back, and the Put/Call ratio suggestive of less defensiveactivity.</li>
</ul>


A noticeable shift in tone this week, with participation broadening and price action turning constructive.
Implied vols declined across most names, unwinding last week’s spike but still sitting above historical medians.
Call activity bounced back, and the Put/Call ratio suggestive of less defensiveactivity.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols

<ul>
<li>A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.</li>
<li>The recent cooling in volatility may be more of a pause than a reversal—we explore why that might be.</li>
<li>Trading activity continued to fade as the market works through the volatility of recent weeks.</li>
</ul>


A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
The recent cooling in volatility may be more of a pause than a reversal—we explore why that might be.
Trading activity continued to fade as the market works through the volatility of recent weeks.


HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold

<ul>
<li>A challenging week for HK single stocks, with weak breadth and sharp losses punctuated by a gap lower to start the week.</li>
<li>Monday marked the highest options volume day of the year, with a spike in the Put/Call ratio and unusual ETF option activity.</li>
<li>Implied vols surged, with the average implied vol percentile at very elevated levels.</li>
</ul>


A challenging week for HK single stocks, with weak breadth and sharp losses punctuated by a gap lower to start the week.
Monday marked the highest options volume day of the year, with a spike in the Put/Call ratio and unusual ETF option activity.
Implied vols surged, with the average implied vol percentile at very elevated levels.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Spikes, Breadth Cracks & ETF Activity Surges

<ul>
<li>A volatile week for HSI, with sharp moves in price, volume, and implied volatility concentrated around Monday’s gap lower.</li>
<li>We discuss the shift in spot-vol dynamics and how it may influence short-term vol trading.</li>
<li>Changes in open interest and vol structure are examined in the context of ongoing global tensions.</li>
</ul>


A volatile week for HSI, with sharp moves in price, volume, and implied volatility concentrated around Monday’s gap lower.
We discuss the shift in spot-vol dynamics and how it may influence short-term vol trading.
Changes in open interest and vol structure are examined in the context of ongoing global tensions.


HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Shifts and Early Signs of USD Toxicity

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk

After crashing following Trump's tariff announcement in early April, the HSI index rallied back very strongly, but momentum stalled. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols

This week saw a positive shift in market sentiment, with increased participation and improved price action. Implied vols decreased but remain...

John Ley

HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold

A weekly overview of market volatility and trading activity, suggesting that the recent decrease in volatility may be a pause as opposed to an...

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Spikes, Breadth Cracks & ETF Activity Surges

HK single stocks faced a tough week with sharp losses, high options volume, surging implied vols and very poor breadth.

John Ley

HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Shifts and Early Signs of USD Toxicity

This Insight analyzes the recent volatility in HSI and its impact on short-term vol trading, highlighting shifts in spot-vol dynamics and changes...

John Ley

HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk

After crashing following Trump's tariff announcement in early April, the HSI index rallied back very strongly, but momentum stalled. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols

​This week saw a positive shift in market sentiment, with increased participation and improved price action. Implied vols decreased but remain...

John Ley

HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold

​A weekly overview of market volatility and trading activity, suggesting that the recent decrease in volatility may be a pause as opposed to an...

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Spikes, Breadth Cracks & ETF Activity Surges

​HK single stocks faced a tough week with sharp losses, high options volume, surging implied vols and very poor breadth.

John Ley

HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Shifts and Early Signs of USD Toxicity

​This Insight analyzes the recent volatility in HSI and its impact on short-term vol trading, highlighting shifts in spot-vol dynamics and changes...

John Ley

This week saw a positive shift in market sentiment, with increased participation and improved price action. Implied vols decreased but remain...

A weekly overview of market volatility and trading activity, suggesting that the recent decrease in volatility may be a pause as opposed to an...

HK single stocks faced a tough week with sharp losses, high options volume, surging implied vols and very poor breadth.

This Insight analyzes the recent volatility in HSI and its impact on short-term vol trading, highlighting shifts in spot-vol dynamics and changes...