ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> was hit by COVID lockdowns in 3Q2021 but the recovery has already started for its retail and packaging businesses, especially in Vietnam for the latter.</li>
<li>The company's expansion plans for Mini Big C continue apace, as well conversions to Food Place and its store renovation program, which points toward a strong growth recovery in 2022.</li>
<li>The competitive intensity in Thai retail is reducing, with CP Group's acquisition of Tesco Thailand reducing major players to two, whilst there is a further restructuring under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-makro-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">Siam Makro Public.</a>
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Berli Jucker (BJC TB) was hit by COVID lockdowns in 3Q2021 but the recovery has already started for its retail and packaging businesses, especially in Vietnam for the latter.
The company's expansion plans for Mini Big C continue apace, as well conversions to Food Place and its store renovation program, which points toward a strong growth recovery in 2022.
The competitive intensity in Thai retail is reducing, with CP Group's acquisition of Tesco Thailand reducing major players to two, whilst there is a further restructuring under Siam Makro Public.



Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Canned Recovery in Motion

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<p><strong>Yesterday analyst meeting came out with a slightly positive tone. We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt16.10, which is derived from 35xPE’22E, a 40% premium to Thai Consumer Discretionary.</strong></p><div>• SSSG turned to positive at double-digit-growth in October 2021. We believe SSSG will turn positive at single-digit-growth in 4Q21 from -11% in 3Q21 ,supported by an increase in store traffic in Thailand and Malaysia after easing the restriction measures and improving overall consumption demand.</div><div></div><div>• From the management guidance, most of HMPRO customers are generation X and baby boomer while IKEA customers are Gen Y. However, HMPRO has  started to expand customer base to Gen Y through HomePro living via Shoppe platform. We believe this strategic move will support strong long-term revenue growth.</div><div></div><div>• We expect 4Q21 earnings to improve QoQ supported by marketing activities in stores (HomePro Super Expo), demand from home renovation after a flood, government stimulus scheme, increase in rental income, increasing selling price by 3%-5% and big campaign that will be launched on e-commerce platform.</div>

Yesterday analyst meeting came out with a slightly positive tone. We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt16.10, which is derived from 35xPE’22E, a 40% premium to Thai Consumer Discretionary.• SSSG turned to positive at double-digit-growth in October 2021. We believe SSSG will turn positive at single-digit-growth in 4Q21 from -11% in 3Q21 ,supported by an increase in store traffic in Thailand and Malaysia after easing the restriction measures and improving overall consumption demand.• From the management guidance, most of HMPRO customers are generation X and baby boomer while IKEA customers are Gen Y. However, HMPRO has  started to expand customer base to Gen Y through HomePro living via Shoppe platform. We believe this strategic move will support strong long-term revenue growth.• We expect 4Q21 earnings to improve QoQ supported by marketing activities in stores (HomePro Super Expo), demand from home renovation after a flood, government stimulus scheme, increase in rental income, increasing selling price by 3%-5% and big campaign that will be launched on e-commerce platform.

HMPRO: Expect 4Q21 Earnings to Improve QoQ

<p><strong>We maintain BUY rating for HMPRO and roll over target price to Bt16.10 (+7% from Previous TP), derived from 33xPE’22E, or implying 40% premium to Thai Consumer Discretionary.</strong></p><div>• We expect HMPRO to report 3Q21 net profit at Bt1bn, the lowest in five quarters pressured by 1.) a negative same-store-sales-growth (SSSG) at -11%YoY due to temporary store closures from COVID-19 outbreak, and, 2.) discounted rental rate charged to tenants at HomePro and Market Village.</div><div></div><div>• SSSG has started to turn positive at low-single-digit in September 2021. We anticipate SSSG to remain flat in 4Q21 while turn to positive figure in 1Q22.</div><div></div><div>• We expect 4Q21 earnings to improve QoQ but soften YoY supported by demand from home renovation after a flood, government stimulus scheme and big campaign that will be launched on e-commerce platform.</div><div></div><div><strong>We still like HMPRO for its 1.) a recovery of its SSSG following a development in COVID-19 vaccination progress, 2.) potential revenue from of Omni-channel as it will be the key revenue driver in the long term, and, 3.) potential branch expansion in overseas market such as Vietnam.</strong></div>

We maintain BUY rating for HMPRO and roll over target price to Bt16.10 (+7% from Previous TP), derived from 33xPE’22E, or implying 40% premium to Thai Consumer Discretionary.• We expect HMPRO to report 3Q21 net profit at Bt1bn, the lowest in five quarters pressured by 1.) a negative same-store-sales-growth (SSSG) at -11%YoY due to temporary store closures from COVID-19 outbreak, and, 2.) discounted rental rate charged to tenants at HomePro and Market Village.• SSSG has started to turn positive at low-single-digit in September 2021. We anticipate SSSG to remain flat in 4Q21 while turn to positive figure in 1Q22.• We expect 4Q21 earnings to improve QoQ but soften YoY supported by demand from home renovation after a flood, government stimulus scheme and big campaign that will be launched on e-commerce platform.We still like HMPRO for its 1.) a recovery of its SSSG following a development in COVID-19 vaccination progress, 2.) potential revenue from of Omni-channel as it will be the key revenue driver in the long term, and, 3.) potential branch expansion in overseas market such as Vietnam.

HMPRO: Expect 3Q21 Earnings to Be Bottom of This Year

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

<p>Thailand has found out an interesting mix of vaccines that is so far safe with a number of Thai as clinical trials that led the government to regain its confidence in the country's reopening. The company's share price has lagged the Thai Index by around 12% and it is currently trading at 7% PBR to its 5 years historical PBR. The downside may come from the slow down in the vaccination drive and also from the potential of further virus mutataion. Nonetheless, Thailand is recovering from the COVID-19 as herd immunity in China is expected to be achieved by end of this year thus a potential for a revenue increment in the next year. </p>

Thailand has found out an interesting mix of vaccines that is so far safe with a number of Thai as clinical trials that led the government to regain its confidence in the country's reopening. The company's share price has lagged the Thai Index by around 12% and it is currently trading at 7% PBR to its 5 years historical PBR. The downside may come from the slow down in the vaccination drive and also from the potential of further virus mutataion. Nonetheless, Thailand is recovering from the COVID-19 as herd immunity in China is expected to be achieved by end of this year thus a potential for a revenue increment in the next year. 

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<p>A call with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> management revealed ongoing pressure from the latest wave of COVID-19 in Thailand, which continues to impact the retail business under Big C but there is some light at the end of the tunnel with the company continuing to focus on renovating and converting stores, as well as expanding its overall network including its omnichannel network.</p>
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<p>The company's recent results saw sales decrease by -5.4% YoY to THB 34,161m in 2Q2021 mainly due to the decline in its retail business under the modern supply chain, which continued to be impacted by COVID-19 related issues. Despite the ongoing third wave in Thailand 3Q2020 is looking better on a YoY basis. </p>
<p>Currently, 29 out of 77 provinces are dark red zones currently but this includes all the most populous areas of Thailand. Big C continues to see strong growth from food but faces pressure as Softline cannot be sold (non-essential) and non-food overall is a drag.</p>
<p>In terms of formats, Mini Big C and the company's supermarket format under The Food Place has been performing relatively well. Mini Big C are more like proximity mini-markets rather than convenience stores. </p>
<p>Big C also continues to pursue its omnichannel approach to sales, which involves using third party operators but also using call and chat avenues through Line and Whatsapp. </p>
<p>The company is also ramping up the renovations of its existing stores and has had a good experience so far with this exercise in terms of improving returns</p>
<p>The key catalyst for the retail business will come from a recovery in the tourism business, given that some of the company's stores had heavy exposure to sales to tourists pre-pandemic.</p>
<p>The company's packaging supply chain business saw a resilient performance in 2Q2021, with especially strong growth from its glass bottling business.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> saw strong performance in its consumer supply chain business, mainly due to the addition of Unicharm as a new client for Thailand for traditional markets.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> healthcare and technical division registered a steady performance in 2Q2021 with COVID-19 related products doing well plus new hospital budget-related orders driving growth.</p>
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<p>The company continues to make progress on its ESG credentials and became part of FTSE4Good Emerging Markets and FTSE4Good ASEAN 5 indices at the end of June.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> is an interesting proxy to the consumer recovery, not just in Thailand but also to South East Asia, given its exposure in Vietnam, and Malaysia. It remains cheap relative to peers, trading on 25.0x FY22E PER and 21.4x FY23E PER, with forecast EPS growth of +41.2% and +16.6%% for FY22E and FY23E respectively.</p>


A call with Berli Jucker (BJC TB) management revealed ongoing pressure from the latest wave of COVID-19 in Thailand, which continues to impact the retail business under Big C but there is some light at the end of the tunnel with the company continuing to focus on renovating and converting stores, as well as expanding its overall network including its omnichannel network.

The company's recent results saw sales decrease by -5.4% YoY to THB 34,161m in 2Q2021 mainly due to the decline in its retail business under the modern supply chain, which continued to be impacted by COVID-19 related issues. Despite the ongoing third wave in Thailand 3Q2020 is looking better on a YoY basis. 
Currently, 29 out of 77 provinces are dark red zones currently but this includes all the most populous areas of Thailand. Big C continues to see strong growth from food but faces pressure as Softline cannot be sold (non-essential) and non-food overall is a drag.
In terms of formats, Mini Big C and the company's supermarket format under The Food Place has been performing relatively well. Mini Big C are more like proximity mini-markets rather than convenience stores. 
Big C also continues to pursue its omnichannel approach to sales, which involves using third party operators but also using call and chat avenues through Line and Whatsapp. 
The company is also ramping up the renovations of its existing stores and has had a good experience so far with this exercise in terms of improving returns
The key catalyst for the retail business will come from a recovery in the tourism business, given that some of the company's stores had heavy exposure to sales to tourists pre-pandemic.
The company's packaging supply chain business saw a resilient performance in 2Q2021, with especially strong growth from its glass bottling business.
Berli Jucker (BJC TB) saw strong performance in its consumer supply chain business, mainly due to the addition of Unicharm as a new client for Thailand for traditional markets.
Berli Jucker (BJC TB) healthcare and technical division registered a steady performance in 2Q2021 with COVID-19 related products doing well plus new hospital budget-related orders driving growth.



The company continues to make progress on its ESG credentials and became part of FTSE4Good Emerging Markets and FTSE4Good ASEAN 5 indices at the end of June.
Berli Jucker (BJC TB) is an interesting proxy to the consumer recovery, not just in Thailand but also to South East Asia, given its exposure in Vietnam, and Malaysia. It remains cheap relative to peers, trading on 25.0x FY22E PER and 21.4x FY23E PER, with forecast EPS growth of +41.2% and +16.6%% for FY22E and FY23E respectively.

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Bright Lights at the End of the Tunnel

Thailand

Home Product Center Public Company Limited is a retailer of building materials and home improvement products.

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Home Product Center (HMPRO TB)

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Canned Recovery in Motion

Berli Jucker (BJC TTB) is on the cusp of a strong recovery going into 4Q2021, and even more so in 2021, mainly driven by its retail and packaging...

Angus Mackintosh

HMPRO: Expect 4Q21 Earnings to Improve QoQ

Yesterday analyst meeting came out with a slightly positive tone. We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt16.10, which is derived from...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

HMPRO: Expect 3Q21 Earnings to Be Bottom of This Year

We maintain BUY rating for HMPRO and roll over target price to Bt16.10 (+7% from Previous TP), derived from 33xPE’22E, or implying 40% premium to...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

AOT: Thailand Reopening

Thailand is recovering from the COVID-19 as herd immunity in China is expected to be achieved by end of this year thus a potential for a revenue...

Henry Soediarko

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Bright Lights at the End of the Tunnel

Berli Jucker's retail business under Big C continues to see pressure from COVID-19 issues but improvements are underway and it is expanding again,...

Angus Mackintosh

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