Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be one deletion from the index and a bunch of capping changes.</li>
<li>The index changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 3.4% resulting in a one-way trade of A$21m. There are two stocks with over A$5m to trade.</li>
<li>Short interest has increased on a few REITs recently while decreasing on most of the other names.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be one deletion from the index and a bunch of capping changes.
The index changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 3.4% resulting in a one-way trade of A$21m. There are two stocks with over A$5m to trade.
Short interest has increased on a few REITs recently while decreasing on most of the other names.


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: Abacus Group Could Be Deleted

<ul>
<li>There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in April following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Then there could be another change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the regular rebalance in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.</li>
</ul>


There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in April following OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)'s acquisition by BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU).
Then there could be another change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the regular rebalance in June.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus Group (AVN AU)</a> received the ATO tax ruling on 18 February. This creates some uncertainty around the timing of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT</a> inclusion in the ASX200 Index.</li>
<li>Given the 'latest available shares in issue' are used, we think there is a better than even chance of the stock being included in the index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a> is not included in March, then it could replace Crown Resorts in May. Else, the stock will be added at the June rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Aventus Group (AVN AU) received the ATO tax ruling on 18 February. This creates some uncertainty around the timing of the HomeCo Daily Needs REIT inclusion in the ASX200 Index.
Given the 'latest available shares in issue' are used, we think there is a better than even chance of the stock being included in the index at the March rebalance.
If HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU) is not included in March, then it could replace Crown Resorts in May. Else, the stock will be added at the June rebalance.


ASX200 Index Rebalance: HDN AU Inclusion Is a Matter of Time (Or Timing)

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.</li>
<li>An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.</li>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.
An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.
Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>When the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus Group (AVN AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a> Scheme was announced four months ago, it looked to complete in late January or very early February. </li>
<li>Because of an ATO staff shortage, the Second Court Hearing was delayed by nearly three weeks, pushing implementation back. The calculation of S&amp;P/ASX index rankings may not be as expected.</li>
<li>Most or all of the AVN downweight is covered by a HDN upweight next Wednesday but whither ASX200 in March?</li>
</ul>


When the Aventus Group (AVN AU) / HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU) Scheme was announced four months ago, it looked to complete in late January or very early February. 
Because of an ATO staff shortage, the Second Court Hearing was delayed by nearly three weeks, pushing implementation back. The calculation of S&amp;P/ASX index rankings may not be as expected.
Most or all of the AVN downweight is covered by a HDN upweight next Wednesday but whither ASX200 in March?


The Weird Ways of the Aventus/HomeCo Daily Needs Index Rebalances (ASX200)

Australia

Home Consortium provides real estate services. The Company offers leasing and development of properties. Home Consortium serves customers in Australia.

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Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU)

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: Abacus Group Could Be Deleted

Abacus Group could be deleted from the MVMVA Index - the stock is also a potential deletion from the ASX200 Index. There will be capping changes on...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

There could be one change for the ASX100 & ASX200 in April and one change for the ASX200 in June. Passive trackers will trade between 4.5-18x ADV...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance: HDN AU Inclusion Is a Matter of Time (Or Timing)

We think there is a better than even chance of HDN being included in the ASX200 Index at the March rebalance. Else, HDN will replace Crown Resorts...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

The Weird Ways of the Aventus/HomeCo Daily Needs Index Rebalances (ASX200)

Aventus and Homeco Daily Needs now have the last doc/approval needed to proceed with their merger. The last day of trading for Aventus is 23 Feb....

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: Abacus Group Could Be Deleted

Abacus Group could be deleted from the MVMVA Index - the stock is also a potential deletion from the ASX200 Index. There will be capping changes on...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

There could be one change for the ASX100 & ASX200 in April and one change for the ASX200 in June. Passive trackers will trade between 4.5-18x ADV...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance: HDN AU Inclusion Is a Matter of Time (Or Timing)

We think there is a better than even chance of HDN being included in the ASX200 Index at the March rebalance. Else, HDN will replace Crown Resorts...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

The Weird Ways of the Aventus/HomeCo Daily Needs Index Rebalances (ASX200)

Aventus and Homeco Daily Needs now have the last doc/approval needed to proceed with their merger. The last day of trading for Aventus is 23 Feb....

Travis Lundy

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June