Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Some low liquidity stocks in the TOPIX Index carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.</li>
<li>These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will enjoy buying flows from passive trackers of TOPIX.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's final predictions for the names that are likely to see their Liquidity Factors removed in April 2023.</li>
</ul>


Some low liquidity stocks in the TOPIX Index carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.
These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will enjoy buying flows from passive trackers of TOPIX.
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's final predictions for the names that are likely to see their Liquidity Factors removed in April 2023.


TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Predictions for The "The Big April Basket” 2023

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.</li>
<li>92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.</li>
<li>Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.</li>
</ul>


40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.
92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.
Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.</li>
<li>On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.</li>
<li>Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.</li>
</ul>



Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.
On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.
Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.


Hokkoku Financial Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hokkoku-financial-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5110:1" rel="noopener">Hokkoku Financial Holdings (7381 JP)</a> came out with an odd decision to delay earnings from 28 April to 8 May. Volume traded. </li>
<li>Today, despite not reporting earnings, the Kanazawa-based regional bank announced a BIG buyback with subsequent share cancellation.  This was not unexpected. They have an aggressive policy which started last year.</li>
<li>Hokkoku Bank policy introduced last year is special. It has worked. They are pursuing it. Expect more policy action like this as banks report. </li>
</ul>


Yesterday Hokkoku Financial Holdings (7381 JP) came out with an odd decision to delay earnings from 28 April to 8 May. Volume traded. 
Today, despite not reporting earnings, the Kanazawa-based regional bank announced a BIG buyback with subsequent share cancellation.  This was not unexpected. They have an aggressive policy which started last year.
Hokkoku Bank policy introduced last year is special. It has worked. They are pursuing it. Expect more policy action like this as banks report. 


Hokkoku Financial (7381) Earnings Report Delay But HUGE Buyback. Again.

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX liquidity factor removal names (upweights) for April 2023 were announced after the close on Friday 7th April 2023 as expected.</li>
<li>According to the announcement, 22 names will see their Liquidity Factors removed and experience index inflows later this month. </li>
<li>Today was the first day of trading post-announcement and the 22 names gained +1.1% (+0.47% vs the TOPIX Index). I feel there could be more upside for some names.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX liquidity factor removal names (upweights) for April 2023 were announced after the close on Friday 7th April 2023 as expected.
According to the announcement, 22 names will see their Liquidity Factors removed and experience index inflows later this month. 
Today was the first day of trading post-announcement and the 22 names gained +1.1% (+0.47% vs the TOPIX Index). I feel there could be more upside for some names.


TOPIX Big April Basket 23: 100% Hit Rate for High Conviction Basket; Focus on Surprises Next

Japan

The Hokkoku Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Ishikawa prefecture.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions.  Hokkoku Bank also provides other financial services including securities brokerage, letter of credit, lease, credit cards, and real estate services.

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Hokkoku Financial Holdings (7381 JP)

TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Predictions for The "The Big April Basket” 2023

This insight (from Feb 2023) discusses the annual TOPIX Liquidity Factor (LF) removal event (which we call the "Big April Basket"). It might be a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

The macro backdrop for Japanese banks is pretty good. Business restructuring efforts are bearing fruit. Global macro is adding fees. Stocks are up,...

Travis Lundy

Bank of Kyoto (8369) - Too Far Too Fast

Bank of Kyoto (8369) has a 50% payout but its shareholder base isn’t that supportive of activism need to monetise the value of the equity...

Travis Lundy

Hokkoku Financial (7381) Earnings Report Delay But HUGE Buyback. Again.

Hokkoku Financial announced a new Strategic Shareholding Policy and Shareholder Return Policy last year with a big buyback. That continues. BIGLY....

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Big April Basket 23: 100% Hit Rate for High Conviction Basket; Focus on Surprises Next

There could be around US$450mn of flows and an average of 12 days of ADV to buy for the 13 names which I identify as "surprise" names. I expect...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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