Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss two major issues impacting the Korean hotels, travel, duty free shops, cosmetics, leisure, &amp; casino related companies.</li>
<li>First is that the South Korean government announced that it will drop quarantine requirement for international arrivals from 21 March.</li>
<li>Second is the potential ramifications of Yoon Suk-Yeol (newly elected South Korean President) who has a relatively hard line stance on North Korea. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss two major issues impacting the Korean hotels, travel, duty free shops, cosmetics, leisure, &amp; casino related companies.
First is that the South Korean government announced that it will drop quarantine requirement for international arrivals from 21 March.
Second is the potential ramifications of Yoon Suk-Yeol (newly elected South Korean President) who has a relatively hard line stance on North Korea. 


Korea Drops Quarantine Requirements Vs. Yoon Suk-Yeol's Hard Line Stance on North Korea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the transition from the COVID-19 pandemic to "live with" COVID-19 endemic in Korea and the impact this will have on the reopening plays in Korea.</li>
<li>In many parts of the world in countries such as the U.K. and Denmark, numerous stringent mandates and restrictions related to COVID-19 have been removed.</li>
<li>The pandemic to endemic reopening could increasingly become a world-wide trend including in Korea and the 17 stocks highlighted in this insight could continue to outperform the market. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the transition from the COVID-19 pandemic to "live with" COVID-19 endemic in Korea and the impact this will have on the reopening plays in Korea.
In many parts of the world in countries such as the U.K. and Denmark, numerous stringent mandates and restrictions related to COVID-19 have been removed.
The pandemic to endemic reopening could increasingly become a world-wide trend including in Korea and the 17 stocks highlighted in this insight could continue to outperform the market. 


Pandemic to Endemic Reopening Plays in Korea

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Another thing to consider in strategic trades aimed at the buying trend for yearend dividend hunting is the ₩1B majority shareholder transfer tax-triggered selling trend.</li>
<li>But the degree of direct conflict between the buying force targeting dividends and this factor at the point close to the ex-dividend date should not be as large as expected.</li>
<li>Considering a gradual preemptive sale of yearend tax evasion until the ex-dividend, we should consider shortening the trading time frame of the yearend dividend play close to the ex-dividend.</li>
</ul>


Another thing to consider in strategic trades aimed at the buying trend for yearend dividend hunting is the ₩1B majority shareholder transfer tax-triggered selling trend.
But the degree of direct conflict between the buying force targeting dividends and this factor at the point close to the ex-dividend date should not be as large as expected.
Considering a gradual preemptive sale of yearend tax evasion until the ex-dividend, we should consider shortening the trading time frame of the yearend dividend play close to the ex-dividend.


Yearend Dividend-Hunt Buying Vs. Majority Shareholder Transfer Tax-Triggered Selling

<ul>
<li>In Korea's local stock market, intense short-covering at the yearend dividend season has been consistently observed since mid-November. So, this post screens potential short-covering stocks.</li>
<li>KOSPI stocks meeting these screening factors include Kumho Petro Chemical, SK Inc, Lotte Shopping, Mirae Asset Securities, CJ Corp, and HiteJinro.</li>
<li>In the KOSDAQ, we can obtain the following results if the same screening factors are applied: LX Semicon, BH Co Ltd, and Seegene.</li>
</ul>


In Korea's local stock market, intense short-covering at the yearend dividend season has been consistently observed since mid-November. So, this post screens potential short-covering stocks.
KOSPI stocks meeting these screening factors include Kumho Petro Chemical, SK Inc, Lotte Shopping, Mirae Asset Securities, CJ Corp, and HiteJinro.
In the KOSDAQ, we can obtain the following results if the same screening factors are applied: LX Semicon, BH Co Ltd, and Seegene.


Potential Yearend Short-Covering Stocks in Korea

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.</li>
<li>
Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </li>
<li>
As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
</ul>



Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

South Korea

Hite Jinro Co., Ltd. specializes in manufacturing Soju, vodka-like distilled Korean liquor. The Company also produces and sells other alcoholic beverages, such as wine, whiskey, and ginseng liquors as well as non-alcoholic beverages including mineral water and soft drinks. In addition, Jinro also provides information processing and financial services as well as construction services.

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Hite Jinro (000080 KS)

Korea Drops Quarantine Requirements Vs. Yoon Suk-Yeol's Hard Line Stance on North Korea

The South Korean government announced that it will drop quarantine requirement for international arrivals from 21 March which should boost travel,...

Douglas Kim

Pandemic to Endemic Reopening Plays in Korea

The pandemic to endemic reopening could increasingly become a world-wide trend including in Korea and the 17 stocks highlighted in this insight...

Douglas Kim

Yearend Dividend-Hunt Buying Vs. Majority Shareholder Transfer Tax-Triggered Selling

This post looks at the yearend dividend-hunt buying versus the ₩1B majority shareholder transfer tax-triggered selling trend.

Sanghyun Park

Potential Yearend Short-Covering Stocks in Korea

In Korea's local stock market, intense short-covering at the yearend dividend season has been consistently observed since mid-November. So, this...

Sanghyun Park

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper

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