Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The deal price is higher than the Bloomberg article insinuated. The closing date is earlier than the Bloomberg article suggested. But that doesn't mean it's enough. </li>
<li>The Large ToSTNeT-3 buyback last year changed the shareholder structure significantly, but many holders who sold are unknown. I would expect they were cross-holders. </li>
<li>For that, this deal is NOT a done deal. There may be games played on this deal. </li>
</ul>


The deal price is higher than the Bloomberg article insinuated. The closing date is earlier than the Bloomberg article suggested. But that doesn't mean it's enough. 
The Large ToSTNeT-3 buyback last year changed the shareholder structure significantly, but many holders who sold are unknown. I would expect they were cross-holders. 
For that, this deal is NOT a done deal. There may be games played on this deal. 


[Japan M&A] Bain Deal for Nissin (9066) Is Still Light Vs Comparable Deals

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In late March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a> made an unsolicited ("hostile") bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> at a near 50% premium at ¥3,000/share.</li>
<li>It traded through, then C&amp;F ran a bid solicitation process, got four bids. Since the day AFTER that announcement, the stock is up 56%. We approach Alps Logistics multiples.</li>
<li>This deal doesn't get the split price benefit that HTS and Alps Logistics did. And it is a fundamentally different logistics business. And target management dynamics are different.</li>
</ul>


In late March, AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) made an unsolicited ("hostile") bid for Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) at a near 50% premium at ¥3,000/share.
It traded through, then C&amp;F ran a bid solicitation process, got four bids. Since the day AFTER that announcement, the stock is up 56%. We approach Alps Logistics multiples.
This deal doesn't get the split price benefit that HTS and Alps Logistics did. And it is a fundamentally different logistics business. And target management dynamics are different.


Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) Gone Ballistic - Reminder of Structure, Price, and Incentives

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>KKR's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a> is a knock-out price. HUGE MINORITY WIN. This trades a little wide because the "gap risk" is so large, but it's still safe.</li>
<li>It's reasonable to expect the listing of various components of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> other than in HK, would (should) be hugely accretive; for those investors who can (or may) participate.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-tire-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20031:1" rel="noopener">Hankook Tire &amp; Technology (161390 KS)</a> seeks a controlling stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanon-systems" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11506:1" rel="noopener">Hanon Systems (018880 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


KKR's Offer for Alps Logistics (9055 JP) is a knock-out price. HUGE MINORITY WIN. This trades a little wide because the "gap risk" is so large, but it's still safe.
It's reasonable to expect the listing of various components of L'Occitane (973 HK) other than in HK, would (should) be hugely accretive; for those investors who can (or may) participate.

Hankook Tire &amp; Technology (161390 KS) seeks a controlling stake in Hanon Systems (018880 KS).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Alps Logistics, L'Occitane, Hanon Systems, Perpetual Ltd

<ul>
<li>Tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Six(!) new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual (PPT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/namoi-cotton-co-operative" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10711:1" rel="noopener">Namoi Cotton (NAM AU)</a>'; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern (GE SP)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-housing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9604:1" rel="noopener">Nihon Housing (4781 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>'. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantm-intellectual-property" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24317:1" rel="noopener">QANTM Intellectual Property (QIP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Six(!) new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Perpetual (PPT AU), Alps Logistics (9055 JP), Namoi Cotton (NAM AU)'; Great Eastern (GE SP); Nihon Housing (4781 JP) and GAPack (468 HK)'. 
Key updates took place on: QANTM Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Adbri (ABC AU), L'Occitane (973 HK), Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), and Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Namoi Cotton, Great Eastern, GAPack, Nihon, Chilled & Frozen, Shinko Electric

<ul>
<li>In late February, a specialty media outlet noted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a> was up for sale. I missed that. Yesterday pre-close, a headline crossed the wires. A deal was imminent.</li>
<li>Nikkei overnight said "¥150bn+ market cap". I thought KKR might slightly overpay the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> multiple paid. That meant +13% today was full-ish. I was wrong.</li>
<li>KKR is paying ¥5,774 to minorities, and about ¥4,084-ish to the parent, who is reinvesting at ¥5,774. This is a total knock-out price paid. HUGE MINORITY WIN.</li>
</ul>


In late February, a specialty media outlet noted Alps Logistics (9055 JP) was up for sale. I missed that. Yesterday pre-close, a headline crossed the wires. A deal was imminent.
Nikkei overnight said "¥150bn+ market cap". I thought KKR might slightly overpay the Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) multiple paid. That meant +13% today was full-ish. I was wrong.
KKR is paying ¥5,774 to minorities, and about ¥4,084-ish to the parent, who is reinvesting at ¥5,774. This is a total knock-out price paid. HUGE MINORITY WIN.


Logisteed/KKR Bid BIGLY for Alps Logistics (9055). A Gobsmacking Price/Multiple

Japan

Hitachi Transport System, Ltd. provides freight truck, port harbor, and marine transportation, logistics, cargo handling, warehousing, and customs clearing services.  The Company mainly transports Hitachi Ltd's freight such as industrial machinery and precision equipment.

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Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)

[Japan M&A] Bain Deal for Nissin (9066) Is Still Light Vs Comparable Deals

The Bain deal for Nissin comes higher than expected but is still light. Mgmt EBITDA forecasts are decent/strong. That makes this too cheap. I...

Travis Lundy

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) Gone Ballistic - Reminder of Structure, Price, and Incentives

C&F Logistics is now up 175% from pre-AZ-Com bid, and up 83% vs the AZ-Com bid which was up 50% from undisturbed. I don't think bidders need to go...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Alps Logistics, L'Occitane, Hanon Systems, Perpetual Ltd

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Namoi Cotton, Great Eastern, GAPack, Nihon, Chilled & Frozen, Shinko Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Logisteed/KKR Bid BIGLY for Alps Logistics (9055). A Gobsmacking Price/Multiple

KKR/Logisteed has bid a very high price to buy out Alps Logistics from Alps Alpine and minorities. Shareholder structure and a 195% premium to...

Travis Lundy

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