Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 49 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a>'s Scheme, and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kito-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19512:1" rel="noopener">Kito Corporation (6409 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwa-hong-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6648:1" rel="noopener">Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 49 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)'s Scheme, and  Pfizer Inc (PFE US)'s Offer for Resapp Health (RAP AU).
Key updates took place for: Link Administration (LNK AU), Virtus Health (VRT AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Kito Corporation (6409 JP), and Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP).


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ResApp Health, Kto Corp, Link Admin, Toyo, Fraser Hospitality

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Toshiba announces meh-to-weak earnings and surprisingly conservative revenue guidance for next year given better order books and backlog and much higher USD/yen.</li>
<li>The company announced a slightly higher March 2022 dividend (giving money to past shareholders) and a big special dividend and higher March 2023 dividend.</li>
<li>The Privatisation Proposal Process continues. It may get a result, or not. New director choices will wait. Now we start a quiet period where privatisation news competes with analyst bearishness.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba announces meh-to-weak earnings and surprisingly conservative revenue guidance for next year given better order books and backlog and much higher USD/yen.
The company announced a slightly higher March 2022 dividend (giving money to past shareholders) and a big special dividend and higher March 2023 dividend.
The Privatisation Proposal Process continues. It may get a result, or not. New director choices will wait. Now we start a quiet period where privatisation news competes with analyst bearishness.


Toshiba (6502) - Iffy Earnings, Worse Projections, A Special Div, But Privatisation Process Proceeds

<ul>
<li>If Silchester's activism towards <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18665:1" rel="noopener">Shiga (8366 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11177:1" rel="noopener">Chugoku (8382 JP)</a> is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. </li>
<li>The idea that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. </li>
</ul>


If Silchester's activism towards Shiga (8366 JP) &amp; Chugoku (8382 JP) is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. 
The idea that the AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term

Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

<ul>
<li>Last week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> reported decent earnings and strong forecasts against what is probably significantly stale consensus expectations. </li>
<li>"The Consortium is not aware of any significant problems with procedures/responses under the Competition Act and will continue to strive to complete these procedures and responses as early as possible."</li>
<li>That caused a jump, but that is the same language used in the 30 Nov 2021 release. Yes, I think this gets done, but Reward/Risk is smaller now.</li>
</ul>


Last week Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) reported decent earnings and strong forecasts against what is probably significantly stale consensus expectations. 
"The Consortium is not aware of any significant problems with procedures/responses under the Competition Act and will continue to strive to complete these procedures and responses as early as possible."
That caused a jump, but that is the same language used in the 30 Nov 2021 release. Yes, I think this gets done, but Reward/Risk is smaller now.


Hitachi Metals - Nice Rebound Reduces Forward Reward/Risk Ratio

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> deal announced last week was a big win for minorities, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hitachi-transport-system-9086-shareholders-get-the-big-win-in-this-vlbo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:69131" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086) Shareholders Get the BIG Win in This VLBO</a>. </li>
<li>Market ructions and the Hitachi Metals saga have this trading wide. </li>
<li>This deal looks different in terms of approval risk and timing risk than Hitachi Metals and is worth a closer look now.</li>
</ul>


The Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) deal announced last week was a big win for minorities, discussed in Hitachi Transport System (9086) Shareholders Get the BIG Win in This VLBO. 
Market ructions and the Hitachi Metals saga have this trading wide. 
This deal looks different in terms of approval risk and timing risk than Hitachi Metals and is worth a closer look now.


Hitachi Transport (9086 JP):  Trading Too Wide

Japan

Hitachi Metals Ltd. manufactures a wide range of specialty steel and metal products, including industrial machinery, magnetic and electronic materials and parts, and aluminium castings and wheels.  The Company's products are marketed to a variety of users including the automobile, aerospace, nuclear, and computer industries worldwide.  The Company is a subsidiary of Hitachi, Ltd.

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Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ResApp Health, Kto Corp, Link Admin, Toyo, Fraser Hospitality

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba (6502) - Iffy Earnings, Worse Projections, A Special Div, But Privatisation Process Proceeds

Toshiba (6502) reported disappointing earnings in the infra business and what appears to be conservative revenue guidance. But they offer regular...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Hitachi Metals - Nice Rebound Reduces Forward Reward/Risk Ratio

Hitachi Metals (5486) has bounced 4.4% since reporting earnings last week, reducing the "risk spread" to terms by half. The catalyst? A reiteration...

Travis Lundy

Hitachi Transport (9086 JP): Trading Too Wide

Hitachi Transport System is trading quite wide for what appears to be a reasonably generic deal. There are few high market share segments overseas...

Travis Lundy

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