Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In this report, we analyse Asia Ex-Japan fund positioning across the key Asian industry groups.  The analysis measures current sentiment across all Asian industry groups by calculating today's positioning levels in relation to historical levels.  We then overlay short term fund activity data in order to detect reversals or confirmations of longer-term trends.For this analysis, we analyse the holdings of 102 actively managed mutual funds benchmarked to the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index. The current fund sample covers a combined AUM of $70bn.

In this report, we analyse Asia Ex-Japan fund positioning across the key Asian industry groups.  The analysis measures current sentiment across all Asian industry groups by calculating today's positioning levels in relation to historical levels.  We then overlay short term fund activity data in order to detect reversals or confirmations of longer-term trends.For this analysis, we analyse the holdings of 102 actively managed mutual funds benchmarked to the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index. The current fund sample covers a combined AUM of $70bn.

Focus Industries for Asia Ex-Japan Fund Managers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices Limited made changes to the Nifty 50 Index, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> and excluding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indiabulls-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13086:1">Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN)</a>. The changes are effective from 27 September, so all rebalancing will need to be done by the close of 26 September.In this Insight, we look at expected flows in both names and recommend ways to play the trade from here.

Last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices Limited made changes to the Nifty 50 Index, including Nestle India (NEST IN) and excluding Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN). The changes are effective from 27 September, so all rebalancing will need to be done by the close of 26 September.In this Insight, we look at expected flows in both names and recommend ways to play the trade from here.

Nifty 50 Index Review - Tearing up the Rulebook

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Equity Bottom-Up

Over the past three years, Nestle India has outperformed the broader index Nifty 50 by ~59%. As revealed by our interaction with a Nestle Distributor, we expect the Outperformance over the longer term to continue. On valuations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> has always commanded a premium. A pullback if any post the recent rally on rumours of Index inclusion, which is not likely as highlighted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> in his insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nifty50-rebalance-preview-rule-change-causes-confusion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31907" rel="noopener">Nifty50 Rebalance Preview - Rule Change Causes Confusion</a> , could be used to accumulate the stock with a 2-year horizon.

Over the past three years, Nestle India has outperformed the broader index Nifty 50 by ~59%. As revealed by our interaction with a Nestle Distributor, we expect the Outperformance over the longer term to continue. On valuations, Nestle India (NEST IN) has always commanded a premium. A pullback if any post the recent rally on rumours of Index inclusion, which is not likely as highlighted by Brian Freitas in his insight Nifty50 Rebalance Preview - Rule Change Causes Confusion , could be used to accumulate the stock with a 2-year horizon. 

Nestlé India (NEST IN) | Channel Checks Suggest Outperformance May Continue

Quantitative Analysis

In Friday's Union Budget presentation, the Finance Minister proposed increasing the Minimum Public Shareholding (MPS) in listed companies from 25% to 35% and has asked the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to consider raising the threshold. If and when implemented, promoters will need to either sell down their stake to meet the 35% threshold or buy back their stock and delist from the exchanges.In this piece, we look at multinational companies that have subsidiaries listed in India that do not meet the 35% threshold currently, and possible action on their part based on the current stock price, delisting guidelines and other considerations.

In Friday's Union Budget presentation, the Finance Minister proposed increasing the Minimum Public Shareholding (MPS) in listed companies from 25% to 35% and has asked the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to consider raising the threshold. If and when implemented, promoters will need to either sell down their stake to meet the 35% threshold or buy back their stock and delist from the exchanges.In this piece, we look at multinational companies that have subsidiaries listed in India that do not meet the 35% threshold currently, and possible action on their part based on the current stock price, delisting guidelines and other considerations.

India

Hindustan Unilever Limited manufactures and distributes consumer products. The Company offers soap, detergent, personal care products and processed food, ice creams, cooking oils, and other related products. Hindustan Unilever serves customers worldwide.

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Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels,...

Vermilion Research

Focus Industries for Asia Ex-Japan Fund Managers

In this report, we analyse Asia Ex-Japan fund positioning across the key Asian industry groups. The analysis measures current sentiment across all...

Steven Holden

Nifty 50 Index Review - Tearing up the Rulebook

Last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices Limited made changes to the Nifty 50 Index, including Nestle India (NEST...

Brian Freitas

Nestlé India (NEST IN) | Channel Checks Suggest Outperformance May Continue

Over the past three years, Nestle India has outperformed the broader index Nifty 50 by ~59%. As revealed by our interaction with a Nestle...

Pranav Bhavsar

India - Stake Sale or Delisting?

In Friday's Union Budget presentation, the Finance Minister proposed increasing the Minimum Public Shareholding (MPS) in listed companies from 25%...

Brian Freitas

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