Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<p>Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.</p>

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div id="annotable-executive_summary-1">The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. </div></div><div><div id="annotable-executive_summary-2"></div></div><div><p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on the Demand environment, Business performance, Consumer behaviour, Pricing action, Gross margins, commodity inflation &amp; Inventory, Advertising spends, Marketshare movements, New launches, Capex and PLI, Online and D2C, International business and exports and Future outlook.</p></div><div><p>Companies covered include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a></p></div>

The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on the Demand environment, Business performance, Consumer behaviour, Pricing action, Gross margins, commodity inflation &amp; Inventory, Advertising spends, Marketshare movements, New launches, Capex and PLI, Online and D2C, International business and exports and Future outlook.Companies covered include Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) / Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) / Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) / Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Staples - BRIT, DABUR, HUVR, MRCO

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. </p><p>The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. </p><p>This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. </p><p>Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include bottom-fishing in Chinese education through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-tech-grp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:531:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (EDU US)</a>, Russian internet play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a>, Brazilian beverages giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ambev-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24454:1" rel="noopener">Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ)</a>, and a rebound call on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">1</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Information Technology</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">2</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">3</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">92</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">4</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">5</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:418:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Land (1109 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Real Estate</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">6</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ambev-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24454:1" rel="noopener">Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Staples</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Brazil</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">7</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">8</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">61</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">9</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Staples</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">10</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">89</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="text-align: left; width: 746px;"><em>Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p><em>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.</em></p>

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include bottom-fishing in Chinese education through New Oriental Education (EDU US), Russian internet play Yandex (YNDX US), Brazilian beverages giant Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ), and a rebound call on Tencent (700 HK).









rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1

Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) 
Information Technology
India
19


2

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
12


3

New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
92


4

Yandex (YNDX US) 
Communication
Russian Federation
88


5

China Resources Land (1109 HK) 
Real Estate
China
33


6

Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ) 
Consumer Staples
Brazil
56


7

NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) 
Communication
Korea (South)
18


8

Tencent (700 HK) 
Communication
China
61


9

Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) 
Consumer Staples
India
70


10

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) 
Consumer Discretionary
India
89

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas

As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We maintain a BUY rating on the stock and value it at 50x FY24E EPS to arrive at a revised TP of Rs 2,670/share (from earlier Rs 2,650/share).</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We maintain a BUY rating on the stock and value it at 50x FY24E EPS to arrive at a revised TP of Rs 2,670/share (from earlier Rs 2,650/share).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindustan Unilever: Resilient Q1 Performance; OOH Business to Improve Sequentially

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

<p>Consequent PAT was at Rs 2061 crore (up 9.6% YoY) five years (from ~Rs 922 in July 2016 to ~Rs 2388 levels in July 2021). We roll over FY24 numbers given Covid-19 related disruptions have temporarily impacted financials &amp; FY23-FY4 would be a normalised year. We continue to remain positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Consequent PAT was at Rs 2061 crore (up 9.6% YoY) five years (from ~Rs 922 in July 2016 to ~Rs 2388 levels in July 2021). We roll over FY24 numbers given Covid-19 related disruptions have temporarily impacted financials &amp; FY23-FY4 would be a normalised year. We continue to remain positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindustan Unilever: Second Wave Drags Growth; Margins Under Pressure

India

Hindustan Unilever Limited manufactures and distributes consumer products. The Company offers soap, detergent, personal care products and processed food, ice creams, cooking oils, and other related products. Hindustan Unilever serves customers worldwide.

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Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Staples - BRIT, DABUR, HUVR, MRCO

For the narrative, we will be covering commentary from Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) / Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) / Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) /...

Pranav Bhavsar

Screening for GEMs: August 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Hindustan Unilever: Resilient Q1 Performance; OOH Business to Improve Sequentially

We maintain a BUY rating on the stock and value it at 50x FY24E EPS to arrive at a revised TP of Rs 2,670/share (from earlier Rs 2,650/share).

Axis Direct

Hindustan Unilever: Second Wave Drags Growth; Margins Under Pressure

Consequent PAT was at Rs 2061 crore (up 9.6% YoY) five years (from ~Rs 922 in July 2016 to ~Rs 2388 levels in July 2021). We roll over FY24 numbers...

ICICI Securities Limited

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