External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Novelis delivered a good set of numbers with a surprise recovery in the Adj EBITDA/t beating our estimate.</li><li>Adj EBITDA/t recovered QoQ to $519/t, up 1%/8% YoY/QoQ (6% beat), led by higher operating leverage on improving shipments as the core can segment destocking is largely over along with improving recycling volumes.</li><li>Revenue stood flat QoQ and stood in line with our estimate at $4,107 Mn (de-grew 14% YoY over the high base of the last year on higher shipments before the onset of Can destocking and higher LME aluminium prices).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Novelis delivered a good set of numbers with a surprise recovery in the Adj EBITDA/t beating our estimate.Adj EBITDA/t recovered QoQ to $519/t, up 1%/8% YoY/QoQ (6% beat), led by higher operating leverage on improving shipments as the core can segment destocking is largely over along with improving recycling volumes.Revenue stood flat QoQ and stood in line with our estimate at $4,107 Mn (de-grew 14% YoY over the high base of the last year on higher shipments before the onset of Can destocking and higher LME aluminium prices).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Adj. EBITDA/T Beat at Novelis Surprises Positively

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

<ul><li>Hindalco Industries is the metals flagship company of Aditya Birla Group. It is the largest primary producers of aluminium in Asia.</li><li>Hindalco operates under three segments – low-cost vertically integrated Aluminum segment (1.3mt), World’s largest rolling and recycling Novelis operations (4mt rolling and 2.5mt recycling facility) and custom copper smelting (0.42mt copper cathodes capacity.</li><li>Easing Upstream Aluminum CoP: In Q1FY24, the cost came down by 2% QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries is the metals flagship company of Aditya Birla Group. It is the largest primary producers of aluminium in Asia.Hindalco operates under three segments – low-cost vertically integrated Aluminum segment (1.3mt), World’s largest rolling and recycling Novelis operations (4mt rolling and 2.5mt recycling facility) and custom copper smelting (0.42mt copper cathodes capacity.Easing Upstream Aluminum CoP: In Q1FY24, the cost came down by 2% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pick of the Week - Hindalco Industries Ltd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24 and lower-than-expected Alumina sales.</li><li>Hindalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT dropped by -9%/-27%/-40% YoY and de-grew/grew by -5%/-2%/+2% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.</li><li>LME Aluminium prices declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24, which were partially offset by higher-than-expected metal shipments (Copper and Aluminium shipments beat our estimates) which led to beat on our estimates.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24 and lower-than-expected Alumina sales.Hindalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT dropped by -9%/-27%/-40% YoY and de-grew/grew by -5%/-2%/+2% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.LME Aluminium prices declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24, which were partially offset by higher-than-expected metal shipments (Copper and Aluminium shipments beat our estimates) which led to beat on our estimates.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Adj. EBITDA/T Beat at Novelis Surprises Positively

Novelis delivered a good set of numbers with a surprise recovery in the Adj EBITDA/t beating our estimate. Adj EBITDA/t recovered QoQ to $519/t, up...

Axis Direct

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Pick of the Week - Hindalco Industries Ltd

Hindalco Industries is the metals flagship company of Aditya Birla Group. It is the largest primary producers of aluminium in Asia.

Axis Direct

Metals & Mining: Q1FY24 Review

Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium...

Axis Direct

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