External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Steel Q2FY23 Preview – Margins to hit a trough: We expect Steel companies under our coverage to deliver weak Q2FY23 numbers.</li><li>Revenue is likely to decline YoY mainly due to 1) Lower sales realisation on account of lower steel prices (domestic Steel HRC prices have corrected by 25% from the peak in Apr’22), 2) Weak exports due to the 15% export duty imposed from May’22, the lower sales realisation will be only partially offset by 3) QoQ increase in sales volumes led by re-stocking by traders as Q1FY23 sales volumes were impacted by sharp de-stocking by traders.</li><li>We expect EBITDA to show a steeper fall in Q2FY23, a de-growth of ~40% QoQ and ~65% YoY, primarily on account of a fall in the topline and higher coking coal consumption costs in the quarter.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Steel Q2FY23 Preview – Margins to hit a trough: We expect Steel companies under our coverage to deliver weak Q2FY23 numbers.Revenue is likely to decline YoY mainly due to 1) Lower sales realisation on account of lower steel prices (domestic Steel HRC prices have corrected by 25% from the peak in Apr’22), 2) Weak exports due to the 15% export duty imposed from May’22, the lower sales realisation will be only partially offset by 3) QoQ increase in sales volumes led by re-stocking by traders as Q1FY23 sales volumes were impacted by sharp de-stocking by traders.We expect EBITDA to show a steeper fall in Q2FY23, a de-growth of ~40% QoQ and ~65% YoY, primarily on account of a fall in the topline and higher coking coal consumption costs in the quarter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +32.6%y/y for 2Q22, an acceleration from what was reported for 1Q22.</li>
<li>61% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, up from 58% in 1Q22, whilst 56% delivered positive EPS surprise, down from 64% in 1Q22.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a massive difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +32.6%y/y for 2Q22, an acceleration from what was reported for 1Q22.
61% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, up from 58% in 1Q22, whilst 56% delivered positive EPS surprise, down from 64% in 1Q22.
Historically, there has been a massive difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 2Q2022

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>Novelis (Results reported on 11th May): EBITDA/tonne declined to $437/tonne (Q3FY22 at $544 and Q4FY21 at $514/tonne).</p></li><li><p>Aluminium India: EBITDA stood at a record high at Rs 4,050 Cr, up 123% YoY and 20% QoQ and stood ahead of our estimate by 5% led by higher realised prices, higher sales volume (Q4FY22: 336kt, Q3FY22 at 325kt and Q4FY21 at 329kt and higher VAP sales (Q4FY22: 93kt, Q3FY22 at 86kt and Q4FY21 at 92kt).</p></li><li><p>Copper India: EBITDA stood at Rs 387 Cr up 20% YoY and flat QoQ due to operational efficiencies and improved by-product realizations.</p></li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p></div></div></div></div>

Novelis (Results reported on 11th May): EBITDA/tonne declined to $437/tonne (Q3FY22 at $544 and Q4FY21 at $514/tonne).Aluminium India: EBITDA stood at a record high at Rs 4,050 Cr, up 123% YoY and 20% QoQ and stood ahead of our estimate by 5% led by higher realised prices, higher sales volume (Q4FY22: 336kt, Q3FY22 at 325kt and Q4FY21 at 329kt and higher VAP sales (Q4FY22: 93kt, Q3FY22 at 86kt and Q4FY21 at 92kt).Copper India: EBITDA stood at Rs 387 Cr up 20% YoY and flat QoQ due to operational efficiencies and improved by-product realizations.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Prudent Capex Amidst Macro Risks; Retain BUY with Lower TP

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Paradeep Phosphates / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paradeep-phosphates" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35965:1" rel="noopener">Paradeep Phosphates (75690Z IN)</a> is looking to raise up to US$194m in its India IPO. The IPO will consist of a mix of primary and secondary shares.</li>
<li>Paradeep Phosphates (PP) is a fertilizer manufacturing company based in India. The firm engages in manufacturing, trading, distribution and sales of a variety of complex fertilizers.</li>
<li>At listing, while PP would be the smallest peer on the revenue and mcap fronts, it trails our identified peer set on the margin front as well.</li>
</ul>



Paradeep Phosphates (75690Z IN) is looking to raise up to US$194m in its India IPO. The IPO will consist of a mix of primary and secondary shares.
Paradeep Phosphates (PP) is a fertilizer manufacturing company based in India. The firm engages in manufacturing, trading, distribution and sales of a variety of complex fertilizers.
At listing, while PP would be the smallest peer on the revenue and mcap fronts, it trails our identified peer set on the margin front as well.


Paradeep Phosphates IPO - Smallest of the Lot and Fairly Valued as Well

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today is the last day of the review period for the June review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a>. Changes become effective at the close on 17 June. </li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> is a close add on sector balance.</li>
<li>The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">DRRD IN</a> will be higher than on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">TTMT IN</a>, in terms of days of ADV to trade and days of delivery volume that needs to change hands.</li>
</ul>


Today is the last day of the review period for the June review of the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX). Changes become effective at the close on 17 June. 
We see Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) and Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) replacing Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN). Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) is a close add on sector balance.
The impact on DRRD IN will be higher than on TTMT IN, in terms of days of ADV to trade and days of delivery volume that needs to change hands.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors Should Replace Dr. Reddy; Hindalco Is Close

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Metals & Mining Q2FY23 Results Preview

Steel Q2FY23 Preview – Margins to hit a trough: We expect Steel companies under our coverage to deliver weak Q2FY23 numbers.

Axis Direct

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 2Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales- and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Prudent Capex Amidst Macro Risks; Retain BUY with Lower TP

Hindalco reported a strong set of numbers with consolidated revenue increasing by 38% YoY and 11% QoQ at Rs 55,764 Cr in line with our estimate of...

Axis Direct

Paradeep Phosphates IPO - Smallest of the Lot and Fairly Valued as Well

Paradeep Phosphates (75690Z IN) is looking to raise up to US$194m in its India IPO. At listing, PP would be the smallest peer on the revenue and...

Clarence Chu

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors Should Replace Dr. Reddy; Hindalco Is Close

Tata Motors should replace Dr Reddy at the June rebalance. Hindalco is an alternate add on sector balance. Passives will need to trade 4-7 days of...

Brian Freitas

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