Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A wave of mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas sector has offered opportunities for Chinese companies to optimize their overseas assets, but uncertainty in the offshore investment environment is also rising, a report by a think tank part of state-owned oil giant China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) found.</li><li>The total value of global oil and gas mergers and acquisitions skyrocketed to more than $250 billion last year, including mega deals involving ExxonMobil and Chevron, making 2023 the largest upstream annual spend in more than a decade.</li><li>“The competitive landscape is reshaping, and the era of mega mergers in the industry has arrived,” Wu Moyuan, vice president of CNPC Economic and Technological Research Institute, said Wednesday at the release of the report.</li></ul>

A wave of mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas sector has offered opportunities for Chinese companies to optimize their overseas assets, but uncertainty in the offshore investment environment is also rising, a report by a think tank part of state-owned oil giant China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) found.The total value of global oil and gas mergers and acquisitions skyrocketed to more than $250 billion last year, including mega deals involving ExxonMobil and Chevron, making 2023 the largest upstream annual spend in more than a decade.“The competitive landscape is reshaping, and the era of mega mergers in the industry has arrived,” Wu Moyuan, vice president of CNPC Economic and Technological Research Institute, said Wednesday at the release of the report.

Global Oil and Gas Consolidation Offers Chinese Firms Opportunities for Deals, Report Says 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.</li>
<li>We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.</li>
</ul>


Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.
We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.


Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

<ul>
<li>Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.</li>
<li>Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward</li>
<li>Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.</li>
</ul>


Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.


Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.</li>
<li>Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>The breakouts happened later that day on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">RSP</a> and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-russell-2000-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32964:1" rel="noopener">IWM</a> is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.
Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
The breakouts happened later that day on the RSP and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the IWM is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.


Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

<ul><li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: 1Q23 update – 1Q23 production in Austria was 299 boe/d.</li><li>Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations.</li><li>Seplat Energy (SEPL LN): 1Q23 results – 1Q23 WI production in Nigeria was 51,720 boe/d.</li></ul>

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: 1Q23 update – 1Q23 production in Austria was 299 boe/d.Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations.Seplat Energy (SEPL LN): 1Q23 results – 1Q23 WI production in Nigeria was 51,720 boe/d.

United States

Hess Corporation is a global independent energy company engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas.

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Hess Corp (HES US)

Global Oil and Gas Consolidation Offers Chinese Firms Opportunities for Deals, Report Says

A wave of mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas sector has offered opportunities for Chinese companies to optimize their overseas assets,...

Caixin Global

Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

Expectations over the past two weeks for an oversold bounce in $SPX have played out. 4300-4325 (1.5-year support) remains solid floor, but could...

Vermilion Research

Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

$SPX broke support discussed in our Aug 8 Compass (50-day MA/4460), leading to change in character (now sell the rips) and deeper pullback. Expect...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

Expecting Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout Above $199; Many Reasons to be Bullish; $DXY and Treasury Yields $TNX $TYX Remain Below Resistance;...

Vermilion Research

Auctus on Friday - 28/04/2023

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations.

Auctus Advisors

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