Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Valuations for direct selling stocks remain at or near historical lows following a very difficult year for the group in 2023.</li>
<li>The 12-month prospective relative P/E ratio for our proprietary Direct Selling Index closed 2023 at a 43% discount to the market, having entered the year at a 35% discount to the market.</li>
<li>This relative multiple contraction was despite a slight improvement in the prospective absolute P/E ratio to 11.2x at the end of 2023, up from 10.9x at the beginning of the year, since the multiple expansion for the S&amp;P 500 was much greater, having expanded nearly 3 full multiple points on the year to close out at approximately 19.7x forward earnings.</li>
</ul>


Valuations for direct selling stocks remain at or near historical lows following a very difficult year for the group in 2023.
The 12-month prospective relative P/E ratio for our proprietary Direct Selling Index closed 2023 at a 43% discount to the market, having entered the year at a 35% discount to the market.
This relative multiple contraction was despite a slight improvement in the prospective absolute P/E ratio to 11.2x at the end of 2023, up from 10.9x at the beginning of the year, since the multiple expansion for the S&amp;P 500 was much greater, having expanded nearly 3 full multiple points on the year to close out at approximately 19.7x forward earnings.


Direct Sellers Valuation Update - Relative Valuations Remain at Generational Lows

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dxn-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36030:1" rel="noopener">DXN Holdings (DXN MK)</a> was listed on the Bursa Malaysia Exchange on 19th May 2023. Both promoters and Gano Global (KV Asia Capital), will come off lockup soon.</li>
<li>DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.</li>
<li>Demand for the IPO was lukewarm and the shares had a turbulent debut. Aside from its weak momentum, liquidity on the stock is weak as well. </li>
</ul>



DXN Holdings (DXN MK) was listed on the Bursa Malaysia Exchange on 19th May 2023. Both promoters and Gano Global (KV Asia Capital), will come off lockup soon.
DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.
Demand for the IPO was lukewarm and the shares had a turbulent debut. Aside from its weak momentum, liquidity on the stock is weak as well. 


DXN Holdings Lock-Up - PE Investor Could Sell Further Although Liquidity Is Weak

<ul><li>This year marks the fifth year in the most current downcycle for the stocks we monitor in the direct selling channel, with the brief exception of the pandemic-related benefits they reaped in 2H20 and 1H21, as a result of their product focus on health and wellness as well as their direct-to-consumer business models during the widespread lockdowns.</li><li>Even those benefits have been mostly given back in 2022 and 2023 as consumers moved from spending on goods for the home and body to services and experiences as mobility returned to the global marketplace</li><li>Below are the five key trends we are looking for to drive this group in 2024.</li></ul>

This year marks the fifth year in the most current downcycle for the stocks we monitor in the direct selling channel, with the brief exception of the pandemic-related benefits they reaped in 2H20 and 1H21, as a result of their product focus on health and wellness as well as their direct-to-consumer business models during the widespread lockdowns.Even those benefits have been mostly given back in 2022 and 2023 as consumers moved from spending on goods for the home and body to services and experiences as mobility returned to the global marketplaceBelow are the five key trends we are looking for to drive this group in 2024.

2024 Trends for Direct Sellers - Looking for an Inflection Point

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dxn-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36030:1" rel="noopener">DXN Holdings (2080694D MK)</a> raised around US$147m in its Malaysian IPO.</li>
<li>DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



DXN Holdings (2080694D MK) raised around US$147m in its Malaysian IPO.
DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.
In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


DXN Holdings IPO Trading - Lukewarm Subscription Rates, Peers Have Corrected Since Last Note

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dxn-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36030:1" rel="noopener">DXN Holdings (2080694D MK)</a> is looking to raise around US$159m in its Malaysia IPO.</li>
<li>DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.</li>
<li>In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, discuss our earnings assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



DXN Holdings (2080694D MK) is looking to raise around US$159m in its Malaysia IPO.
DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.
In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, discuss our earnings assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.


DXN Holdings IPO - Peer Comparison & Valuation

United States

Herbalife Ltd. is a global nutrition company that sells weight management, healthy meals and snacks, sports and fitness, energy and targeted nutritional products as well as personal care products. The Company distributes and sells its products through a network of independent distributors, using the direct selling channel.

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Herbalife Ltd (HLF US)

Direct Sellers Valuation Update - Relative Valuations Remain at Generational Lows

The 12-month prospective relative P/E ratio for our proprietary Direct Selling Index closed 2023 at a 43% discount to the market, having entered...

Water Tower Research

DXN Holdings Lock-Up - PE Investor Could Sell Further Although Liquidity Is Weak

DXN Holdings (DXN MK) was listed on the Bursa Malaysia Exchange on 19th May 2023. Both promoters and Gano Global (KV Asia Capital), will come off...

Clarence Chu

2024 Trends for Direct Sellers - Looking for an Inflection Point

This year marks the fifth year in the most current downcycle for the stocks we monitor in the direct selling channel with the brief exception of...

Water Tower Research

DXN Holdings IPO Trading - Lukewarm Subscription Rates, Peers Have Corrected Since Last Note

DXN Holdings (2080694D MK) raised around US$147m in its Malaysian IPO. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Clarence Chu

DXN Holdings IPO - Peer Comparison & Valuation

DXN Holdings (2080694D MK) is looking to raise around US$159m in its Malaysia IPO. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, and share our...

Clarence Chu

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