Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/558" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> continues to expand loans more aggressively than peers. Where this is occurring alongside higher interest rates and a rapidly depreciating currency, there is greater default risk. If economic growth were set to expand or if there were signs of this already in place, the story could be different. Without this, relatively higher ‘unseasoned loans’ is a red flag and HDFC Bank stands out worse than peers. Last week one India bank announced a bad loan divestment at 25 cents on the dollar, an exceptionally low figure and not suggestive of an improving outlook.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) continues to expand loans more aggressively than peers. Where this is occurring alongside higher interest rates and a rapidly depreciating currency, there is greater default risk. If economic growth were set to expand or if there were signs of this already in place, the story could be different. Without this, relatively higher ‘unseasoned loans’ is a red flag and HDFC Bank stands out worse than peers. Last week one India bank announced a bad loan divestment at 25 cents on the dollar, an exceptionally low figure and not suggestive of an improving outlook.  

HDFC Bank – Aggressive Lending Against Higher Rates Is a Red Flag

Unique in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/558" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1">HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN)</a>'s newly released annual report for fiscal year 2018, is its table on asset classification 'divergence.'  It is not only testimony to a stricter Reserve Bank of India (RBI) but that this haloed-bank is not immune from credit risk or the perennial under-reporting of bad loans as with peer banks. The tables that always draw ire from analysts are those on restructured loans, as they are prepared in landscape format, unlike the rest of the report. The data is…

Unique in HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN)'s newly released annual report for fiscal year 2018, is its table on asset classification 'divergence.'  It is not only testimony to a stricter Reserve Bank of India (RBI) but that this haloed-bank is not immune from credit risk or the perennial under-reporting of bad loans as with peer banks. The tables that always draw ire from analysts are those on restructured loans, as they are prepared in landscape format, unlike the rest of the report. The data is…

HDFC Bank – Newly Released Annual Report Holds Troves of Granular Data, Not All of Which Is Positive

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* New COO, essentially replaces current CEO - who is under investigation; and * As discussed in our May 9, 2018 note, this bank is an absolute mess which in all likelihood should fail . We wish COO Bakshi all the best. However, this bank would be a challenge to even the best turnaround artists. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>ICICI Bank (ICICI.IN/ICN.US) announced the appointment of Mr. Sandeep Bakhshi – an ICICI veteran – as a full-time director and Chief Operating Officer (COO). subject to regulatory…

* New COO, essentially replaces current CEO - who is under investigation; and * As discussed in our May 9, 2018 note, this bank is an absolute mess which in all likelihood should fail . We wish COO Bakshi all the best. However, this bank would be a challenge to even the best turnaround artists. Investment SummaryICICI Bank (ICICI.IN/ICN.US) announced the appointment of Mr. Sandeep Bakhshi – an ICICI veteran – as a full-time director and Chief Operating Officer (COO). subject to regulatory…

ICICI Bank - New COO Cannot Turn The Titanic Around

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN/HDB.US) continues to post strong net profit growth underpinned by strong lending growth (19% YoY in F18) with market share gains both in retail and wholesale. HDFC Bank, unlike its competitors, also has de miminis balance sheet stress, while its cost of funds is the lowest among all Indian banks. More importantly, HDFC…

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit. Investment SummaryHDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN/HDB.US) continues to post strong net profit growth underpinned by strong lending growth (19% YoY in F18) with market share gains both in retail and wholesale. HDFC Bank, unlike its competitors, also has de miminis balance sheet stress, while its cost of funds is the lowest among all Indian banks. More importantly, HDFC…

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha, ANTYA Investments

ANTYA Investments

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha

Investing That Empowers You

ANTYA Investments Inc., regulated by the Ontario Securities Commission, is registered to provide wealth management services in Canada. ANTYA manages institutional, and high net-worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis. Our investment philosophy embraces a Core-Satellite approach.  The core of the portfolio is chosen from a group of fifteen asset classes. A few stock specific asymmetrical investment opportunities comprise the satellite segment. ANTYA invests only in global, large capitalization, and investment grade companies.  

Macroeconomics

Since the publication of our January 2018 report, the  spread between one-year Indian G-SEC and the U.S. Treasury has declined approximately 50bps. After accounting for currency depreciation and transaction costs, a U.S.$ investor generated zero return in the Indian debt market during the first four months of the current year.  We estimate that prospectively foreign investors in Indian debt markets ....

Since the publication of our January 2018 report, the  spread between one-year Indian G-SEC and the U.S. Treasury has declined approximately 50bps. After accounting for currency depreciation and transaction costs, a U.S.$ investor generated zero return in the Indian debt market during the first four months of the current year.  We estimate that prospectively foreign investors in Indian debt markets ....

India: The Indian Rupee – Next Stop INR 70/USD, G-SEC 10-Year Yield – 8%

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US)

HDFC Bank – Aggressive Lending Against Higher Rates Is a Red Flag

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) continues to expand loans more aggressively than peers. Where this is occurring alongside higher interest rates and a rapidly...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC Bank – Newly Released Annual Report Holds Troves of Granular Data, Not All of Which Is Positive

Unique in HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN)'s newly released annual report for fiscal year 2018, is its table on asset classification 'divergence.' It...

Daniel Tabbush

ICICI Bank - New COO Cannot Turn The Titanic Around

* New COO, essentially replaces current CEO - who is under investigation; and * As discussed in our May 9, 2018 note, this bank is an absolute mess...

Thomas J. Monaco

HDFC Bank – Rocking and Rolling

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit....

Thomas J. Monaco

India: The Indian Rupee – Next Stop INR 70/USD, G-SEC 10-Year Yield – 8%

Since the publication of our January 2018 report, the spread between one-year Indian G-SEC and the U.S. Treasury has declined approximately 50bps....

ANTYA Investments

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