Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to the ongoing earnings season, for the next couple of weeks, we will temporarily deviate from our regular format and instead focus on reported earnings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> - The core concerns that worry the street do warrant attention. While the management believes it is temporary, we anticipate some more incremental pain ahead. </li>
<li>Other interesting names highlighted include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4627:1" rel="noopener">Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indiamart-intermesh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27733:1" rel="noopener">IndiaMart (INMART IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poonawalla-fincorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3449:1" rel="noopener">Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Due to the ongoing earnings season, for the next couple of weeks, we will temporarily deviate from our regular format and instead focus on reported earnings.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) - The core concerns that worry the street do warrant attention. While the management believes it is temporary, we anticipate some more incremental pain ahead. 
Other interesting names highlighted include Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN), IndiaMart (INMART IN), Polycab India (POLYCAB IN), and Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN). 


[Week 17] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition | HDFCB's Core Concerns

Research on International Stock Ideas, Value Punks

Value Punks

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<ul><li>HDFC Bank reported earnings last week. The next day the stock fell 8% followed by another 4% the day after.</li><li>HDFC Bank is one of India’s bluest blue chip stocks with a reputation for being a high quality compounder.</li><li>What happened and where do we go from here? First, some lessons from another life.</li></ul>

HDFC Bank reported earnings last week. The next day the stock fell 8% followed by another 4% the day after.HDFC Bank is one of India’s bluest blue chip stocks with a reputation for being a high quality compounder.What happened and where do we go from here? First, some lessons from another life.

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank's (HDFCB)</a> stock was down over -8% yesterday and is down over -3% today. The stock seems to have reacted to low deposit growth (~2% QoQ) in Q3FY24 .</li>
<li>Post the merger with HDFC Ltd that completed in Jun 2023, HDFCB needs to grow its deposits at a fast pace to support its loan growth.</li>
<li>We think HDFCB is well placed to do so. It also has an option to raise capital through affordable housing bonds which have good economics, similar to term deposits.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank's (HDFCB) stock was down over -8% yesterday and is down over -3% today. The stock seems to have reacted to low deposit growth (~2% QoQ) in Q3FY24 .
Post the merger with HDFC Ltd that completed in Jun 2023, HDFCB needs to grow its deposits at a fast pace to support its loan growth.
We think HDFCB is well placed to do so. It also has an option to raise capital through affordable housing bonds which have good economics, similar to term deposits.


HDFC Bank: Growth Trajectory Remains Intact Despite Short-Term Headwinds

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener"><strong>NIFTY Index</strong> (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener"><strong>NSE Nifty Bank Index</strong> (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)</a> reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.</li>
<li>Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.</li>
<li>Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/federal-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11784:1" rel="noopener">Federal Bank (FB IN)),</a>or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY) reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.
Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.
Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (Federal Bank (FB IN)),or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.


EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> has broken its four-week decline and reversed direction. This raises the prospect for a bull run.</li>
<li>Continued decline or relief rally? Technical and fundamental arguments lend support to both directional views.</li>
<li>We identify options with attractive cost vs. upside profiles to implement tactical trades in this environment.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) has broken its four-week decline and reversed direction. This raises the prospect for a bull run.
Continued decline or relief rally? Technical and fundamental arguments lend support to both directional views.
We identify options with attractive cost vs. upside profiles to implement tactical trades in this environment.


EQD | Nifty 50 – Option Strategy for Bulls and Bears

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

[Week 17] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition | HDFCB's Core Concerns

During the earnings season, the focus will shift to reported earnings. HDFC Bank's concerns are causing worry, and there may be more challenges...

Pranav Bhavsar

HDFC Bank: An Update

HDFC Bank is one of India’s bluest blue chip stocks with a reputation for being a high quality compounder.What happened and where do we go from...

Value Punks

HDFC Bank: Growth Trajectory Remains Intact Despite Short-Term Headwinds

HDFCB's stock tanked over -10% in two days amid weak deposit growth leading to concerns around sustainability of HDFCB's loan growth. We think...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

The NSE Nifty Bank Index hit a record high in September 2024 but has since dropped. Option opportunities are found in resilient or volatile bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Nifty 50 – Option Strategy for Bulls and Bears

The NIFTY 50 snaped its four-week decline. Options with attractive cost vs. upside profile make for tactical trades ahead of a recovery rally, or...

Gaudenz Schneider

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Week 17] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition | HDFCB's Core Concerns

​During the earnings season, the focus will shift to reported earnings. HDFC Bank's concerns are causing worry, and there may be more challenges...

Pranav Bhavsar

HDFC Bank: An Update

HDFC Bank is one of India’s bluest blue chip stocks with a reputation for being a high quality compounder.What happened and where do we go from...

Value Punks

HDFC Bank: Growth Trajectory Remains Intact Despite Short-Term Headwinds

HDFCB's stock tanked over -10% in two days amid weak deposit growth leading to concerns around sustainability of HDFCB's loan growth. We think...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

The NSE Nifty Bank Index hit a record high in September 2024 but has since dropped. Option opportunities are found in resilient or volatile bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Nifty 50 – Option Strategy for Bulls and Bears

​The NIFTY 50 snaped its four-week decline. Options with attractive cost vs. upside profile make for tactical trades ahead of a recovery rally, or...

Gaudenz Schneider

During the earnings season, the focus will shift to reported earnings. HDFC Bank's concerns are causing worry, and there may be more challenges...

The NIFTY 50 snaped its four-week decline. Options with attractive cost vs. upside profile make for tactical trades ahead of a recovery rally, or...