Research on International Stock Ideas, Value Punks

Value Punks

Research on International Stock Ideas

Value Punks’ mission is to deliver institutional-grade research on international stock ideas in a digestible, reader-friendly format.

At Value Punks, we blend our background in traditional value-investing with an openness to embrace a constantly and rapidly evolving investment and business landscape.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>HDFC Bank reported earnings last week. The next day the stock fell 8% followed by another 4% the day after.</li><li>HDFC Bank is one of India’s bluest blue chip stocks with a reputation for being a high quality compounder.</li><li>What happened and where do we go from here? First, some lessons from another life.</li></ul>

HDFC Bank reported earnings last week. The next day the stock fell 8% followed by another 4% the day after.HDFC Bank is one of India’s bluest blue chip stocks with a reputation for being a high quality compounder.What happened and where do we go from here? First, some lessons from another life.

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank's (HDFCB)</a> stock was down over -8% yesterday and is down over -3% today. The stock seems to have reacted to low deposit growth (~2% QoQ) in Q3FY24 .</li>
<li>Post the merger with HDFC Ltd that completed in Jun 2023, HDFCB needs to grow its deposits at a fast pace to support its loan growth.</li>
<li>We think HDFCB is well placed to do so. It also has an option to raise capital through affordable housing bonds which have good economics, similar to term deposits.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank's (HDFCB) stock was down over -8% yesterday and is down over -3% today. The stock seems to have reacted to low deposit growth (~2% QoQ) in Q3FY24 .
Post the merger with HDFC Ltd that completed in Jun 2023, HDFCB needs to grow its deposits at a fast pace to support its loan growth.
We think HDFCB is well placed to do so. It also has an option to raise capital through affordable housing bonds which have good economics, similar to term deposits.


HDFC Bank: Growth Trajectory Remains Intact Despite Short-Term Headwinds

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Recently awarded "Maharatna" status, only 12 companies, FY24 is first full year for this</li>
<li>Growth is steady, with good returns, and major improvement in credit metrics</li>
<li>Its 4.77% dividend yield is incredibly high and about 3x higher than peers</li>
</ul>


Recently awarded "Maharatna" status, only 12 companies, FY24 is first full year for this
Growth is steady, with good returns, and major improvement in credit metrics
Its 4.77% dividend yield is incredibly high and about 3x higher than peers


RECL - Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> continues to focus on growing its offline distribution network and added 684 new branches in Q3FY23, taking the total to 7183.</li>
<li>It is also focusing on niche under-penetrated segments like Gold Loans and Wealth Management. Its Payment Acceptance Points network has also seen rapid growth.</li>
<li>QoQ loan growth was somewhat muted, largely due to underwhelming growth on the corporate side as pricing in the marketplace is not as remunerative due to elevated competition.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) continues to focus on growing its offline distribution network and added 684 new branches in Q3FY23, taking the total to 7183.
It is also focusing on niche under-penetrated segments like Gold Loans and Wealth Management. Its Payment Acceptance Points network has also seen rapid growth.
QoQ loan growth was somewhat muted, largely due to underwhelming growth on the corporate side as pricing in the marketplace is not as remunerative due to elevated competition.


HDFC Bank: Q3FY23 Growth Was Somewhat Muted, but Long-Term Growth Potential Remains Intact

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Kakao Bank (KB) is South Korea’s largest digital bank. It's a subsidiary of Kakao, which holds a 27.3% stake post listing.</li>
<li>It is a branchless digital bank that only started operations in 2017. As of Sep 21, it had a loan book of US$21bn, deposit base of US$24bn and 17.4m customers.</li>
<li>Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea.</li>
</ul>


Kakao Bank (KB) is South Korea’s largest digital bank. It's a subsidiary of Kakao, which holds a 27.3% stake post listing.
It is a branchless digital bank that only started operations in 2017. As of Sep 21, it had a loan book of US$21bn, deposit base of US$24bn and 17.4m customers.
Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea.


2022 High Conviction - Kakao Bank - A Long Way to Go

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

HDFC Bank: An Update

HDFC Bank is one of India’s bluest blue chip stocks with a reputation for being a high quality compounder.What happened and where do we go from...

Value Punks

HDFC Bank: Growth Trajectory Remains Intact Despite Short-Term Headwinds

HDFCB's stock tanked over -10% in two days amid weak deposit growth leading to concerns around sustainability of HDFCB's loan growth. We think...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

RECL - Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield

High demand for power related lending can last for decades, marked improvement in credit metrics, new Maharatna status (only 12 companies have...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC Bank: Q3FY23 Growth Was Somewhat Muted, but Long-Term Growth Potential Remains Intact

An investment in HDFCB's stock has potential to generate 21%+ IRR over the next 3Y. While QoQ loan growth was somewhat muted, HDFCB's long-term...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

2022 High Conviction - Kakao Bank - A Long Way to Go

Kakao Bank (KB) is South Korea’s largest digital bank. It's a subsidiary of Kakao, which holds a 27.3% stake post listing.

Sumeet Singh

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