Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The KOSPI 200 June Review will have a total of 13 float rate changes: 11 increases and 2 reductions.</li>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank (323410)</a></strong> will experience the biggest change, followed by <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM (011200)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960)</a></strong>. The float rate of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdc-hyundai-development-co-engineering-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27397:1" rel="noopener">HDC Hyundai Development (294870)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670)</a></strong> will decrease.</li>
<li>
<strong>Kakao Bank</strong> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-pay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Kakao Pay (377300)</strong></a> have the most significant passive impact. And <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woori-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27995:1" rel="noopener">Woori Financial Group (316140)</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960)</a></strong> are also worth noting.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 June Review will have a total of 13 float rate changes: 11 increases and 2 reductions.

Kakao Bank (323410) will experience the biggest change, followed by HMM (011200) and  Krafton Inc (259960). The float rate of HDC Hyundai Development (294870) and Doosan Infracore (042670) will decrease.

Kakao Bank and Kakao Pay (377300) have the most significant passive impact. And LG Corp (003550), Woori Financial Group (316140), and  Krafton Inc (259960) are also worth noting.


KOSPI 200 Constituents with a Float Rate Change: 11 Increases & 2 Reductions

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction

<ul>
<li>On 28 January, the government (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) announced that it has recommended the heaviest punishment of the cancellation of the construction license for HDC Hyundai Development.</li>
<li>Seoul city government said it will make a decision on the fate of HDC Hyundai Development within six months.</li>
<li>Rather than a complete, permanent cancellation of the company's business license, a more likely scenario is about 6 to 12 months of temporary business operation suspension, in our view. </li>
</ul>


On 28 January, the government (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) announced that it has recommended the heaviest punishment of the cancellation of the construction license for HDC Hyundai Development.
Seoul city government said it will make a decision on the fate of HDC Hyundai Development within six months.
Rather than a complete, permanent cancellation of the company's business license, a more likely scenario is about 6 to 12 months of temporary business operation suspension, in our view. 


HDC Hyundai Development: Permanent Business License Cancellation or Temporary Business Suspension?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Yoon Suk-Yeol was elected the new President of South Korea on 10 March.</li>
<li>As the next President of South Korea, Yoon will certainly try to increase much needed housing supply and this will certainly benefit the major construction companies in Korea.</li>
<li>Another major sector that will likely benefit as a result of Yoon becoming the President is the nuclear industry.</li>
</ul>


Yoon Suk-Yeol was elected the new President of South Korea on 10 March.
As the next President of South Korea, Yoon will certainly try to increase much needed housing supply and this will certainly benefit the major construction companies in Korea.
Another major sector that will likely benefit as a result of Yoon becoming the President is the nuclear industry.


Yoon Suk-Yeol Becomes the New President of South Korea

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

LG Energy Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li><strong>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs. </strong></li>
<li>Trading debuts across different markets have been poor. But there are some trades to be put for lock-up expiries.</li>
<li>This will be our last week of ECM weekly notes for the year. Our weekly notes will be back in January when things start to pick up again.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs. 
Trading debuts across different markets have been poor. But there are some trades to be put for lock-up expiries.
This will be our last week of ECM weekly notes for the year. Our weekly notes will be back in January when things start to pick up again.


ECM Weekly (19th December 2021) - LG Energy, Hyundai Engineering, Chervon, Sirnaomics, JG Mag A/H

<p>The KRX confirmed that</p><ul>
<li>If SK IE Technology satisfies the requirements for an exceptional addition of newly listed large-scale companies, it replaces HDC in the upcoming June rebalancing.</li>
<li>The KRX will post the replacement on the KRX index website on June 2.</li>
</ul><p>SK IE Tech's fast entry into KOSPI 200 should be a done deal as its 10-day average daily market cap of ₩10.26T puts it at the 35th spot right behind Korean Air Lines.</p><p>The 50th spot is CJ Cheiljedang, with a 10-day average daily market cap of ₩6.85T, requiring SK IE Tech to plunge 33.23% to fall below CJ Cheiljedang.</p><h2>Free float estimation</h2><p>SK IE Tech's non-float is 73.96%. The immediate float sits at 15.04%, with an 11.00% stake residing in the institutional lockups. <strong>The KRX includes institutional voluntary lockups in the float shares for the index calculation. </strong>So, <strong>26.04%</strong> should be our index float for KOSPI 200.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="250">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Float estimation"}'>Float estimation</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shares"}'>Shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% of SO"}'>% of SO</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Last filed"}'>Last filed</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Release date"}'>Release date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Major shareholder"}'>Major shareholder</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":49907592}' data-sheets-formula="=43633432+6274160">49,907,592</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6999898678205009}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R2C6">70.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44327}'>11-May-21</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Executives"}'>Executives</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}'>0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R2C6">0.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"ESOP"}'>ESOP</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2823956}'>2,823,956</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.03960801368999951}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R2C6">3.96%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Non float"}'><strong>- Non-float</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":52731548}' data-sheets-formula="=sum(R[-3]C[0]:R[-1]C[0])"><strong>52,731,548</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7395978815105004}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R2C6"><strong>73.96%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'><strong>-</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'><strong>-</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Institutional lockups - 6 months"}'>Institutional lockups - 6 months</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3020988}'>3,020,988</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0423715291815185}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R2C6">4.24%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44511}'>11-Nov-21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Institutional lockups - 3 months"}'>Institutional lockups - 3 months</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2087672}'>2,087,672</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.02928110110647215}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R2C6">2.93%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44419}'>11-Aug-21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Institutional lockups - 1 months"}'>Institutional lockups - 1 months</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2700264}'>2,700,264</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.037873144439436325}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R2C6">3.79%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":43993}'>11-Jun-20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Institutional lockups - 15 days"}'>Institutional lockups - 15 days</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":35922}'>35,922</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0005038318825690495}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R2C6">0.05%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44342}'>26-May-21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Float, excl. inst lockups"}'><strong>Float, excl. inst lockups</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10721198}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-11]C[4]-R[-5]C[0]-sum(R[-4]C[0]:R[-1]C[0])"><strong>10,721,198</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1503725118795036}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R2C6"><strong>15.04%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'><strong>-</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'><strong>-</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Float, incl. inst lockups"}'><strong>Float, incl. inst lockups</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":18566044}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+sum(R[-5]C[0]:R[-2]C[0])"><strong>18,566,044</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2604021184894996}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R2C6"><strong>26.04%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'><strong>-</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'><strong>-</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX FIND &amp; DART"}'>Source: KRX FIND &amp; DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>Passive flow impact</h2><p>SK IE Tech will likely enjoy an estimated passive inflow of ₩168.5B, requiring 0.45 days to buy. On the other hand, HDC Holdings requires 1.90 days to cover an estimated passive outflow of ₩20.5B.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 337.5px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200 adds - passive inflow"}'>Passive flow impact</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 104.167px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 115px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Estimated passive inflow"}'>Estimated passive flow</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 105px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Days to buy"}'>Days to buy/cover</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 337.5px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SK IE Technology Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>SK IE Technology Co Ltd </td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 104.167px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"361610"}' data-sheets-formula='="361610"'>361610</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 115px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":168.45645052857597}' data-sheets-formula="=Guide!R32C2*R[0]C[4]"><strong>+₩168.5B</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 105px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.45175219778441594}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[-1]/(googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "volumeavg")*average(index(googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "price", today()-30, today()), 0, 2))/1000000000)'><strong>0.45x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 337.5px;">HDC Holdings Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 104.167px;">012630</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 115px;"><strong>-₩20.5B </strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 105px;"><strong>1.90x </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" style="width: 724.167px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide"}'>Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>Short interest</h2><p>HDC Holdings' short interest sits at 0.96% of the float shares, taking only 0.34 days to cover. But the market seems to be waiting to short the shares as its loan balance to float shares has risen to 10.10%, translating into 3.53 times the average daily trade value.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200 deletes - short interest"}'>Short interest</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Short interest to float shares"}'>Short interest to float shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Days to cover"}'>Days to cover</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Loan balance to float shares"}'>Loan balance to float shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Loan balance to ADTV"}'>Loan balance to ADTV</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"30-day average daily trade value"}'>30-day average daily trade value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"HDC Holdings Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C2, "name")'>HDC Holdings Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"012630"}' data-sheets-formula='="012630"'>012630</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0096}'><strong>0.96%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"0.34x"}'><strong>0.34x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.101}'><strong>10.10%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"3.53x"}'><strong>3.53x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10.749360631578947}' data-sheets-formula='=(googlefinance(R[0]C[-5], "volumeavg")*average(index(googlefinance(R[0]C[-5], "price", today()-30, today()), 0, 2))/1000000000)'>₩10.7B</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

The KRX confirmed that
If SK IE Technology satisfies the requirements for an exceptional addition of newly listed large-scale companies, it replaces HDC in the upcoming June rebalancing.
The KRX will post the replacement on the KRX index website on June 2.
SK IE Tech's fast entry into KOSPI 200 should be a done deal as its 10-day average daily market cap of ₩10.26T puts it at the 35th spot right behind Korean Air Lines.The 50th spot is CJ Cheiljedang, with a 10-day average daily market cap of ₩6.85T, requiring SK IE Tech to plunge 33.23% to fall below CJ Cheiljedang.Free float estimationSK IE Tech's non-float is 73.96%. The immediate float sits at 15.04%, with an 11.00% stake residing in the institutional lockups. The KRX includes institutional voluntary lockups in the float shares for the index calculation. So, 26.04% should be our index float for KOSPI 200.









Float estimation
Shares
% of SO
Last filed
Release date


Major shareholder
49,907,592
70.00%
11-May-21
-


Executives
0
0.00%
-
-


ESOP
2,823,956
3.96%
-
-


- Non-float
52,731,548
73.96%
-
-


Institutional lockups - 6 months
3,020,988
4.24%
-
11-Nov-21


Institutional lockups - 3 months
2,087,672
2.93%
-
11-Aug-21


Institutional lockups - 1 months
2,700,264
3.79%
-
11-Jun-20


Institutional lockups - 15 days
35,922
0.05%
-
26-May-21


Float, excl. inst lockups
10,721,198
15.04%
-
-


Float, incl. inst lockups
18,566,044
26.04%
-
-

Source: KRX FIND &amp; DART

Passive flow impactSK IE Tech will likely enjoy an estimated passive inflow of ₩168.5B, requiring 0.45 days to buy. On the other hand, HDC Holdings requires 1.90 days to cover an estimated passive outflow of ₩20.5B.








Passive flow impact
Ticker
Estimated passive flow
Days to buy/cover


SK IE Technology Co Ltd 
361610
+₩168.5B
0.45x


HDC Holdings Co Ltd
012630
-₩20.5B 
1.90x 

Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide

Short interestHDC Holdings' short interest sits at 0.96% of the float shares, taking only 0.34 days to cover. But the market seems to be waiting to short the shares as its loan balance to float shares has risen to 10.10%, translating into 3.53 times the average daily trade value.











Short interest
Ticker
Short interest to float shares
Days to cover
Loan balance to float shares
Loan balance to ADTV
30-day average daily trade value


HDC Holdings Co Ltd
012630
0.96%
0.34x
10.10%
3.53x
₩10.7B

Source: KRX



SK IE Tech In & HDC Out Offers A Clear-Cut Long/Short Setup

South Korea

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction offers construction services. The Company builds factories, office and retail buildings, hotels, and warehouses. HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction provides its services throughout Korea.

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction (294870 KS)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction (294870 KS)

KOSPI 200 Constituents with a Float Rate Change: 11 Increases & 2 Reductions

This post summarizes all the KOSPI 200 constituents, which will likely change their respective float rate in the June Review.

Sanghyun Park

HDC Hyundai Development: Permanent Business License Cancellation or Temporary Business Suspension?

On 28 January, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced that it has recommended the heaviest punishment of the cancellation of...

Douglas Kim

Yoon Suk-Yeol Becomes the New President of South Korea

Yoon Suk-Yeol was elected the new President of South Korea on 10 March. Can he become the first ever hero President in South Korea, in the likes of...

Douglas Kim

ECM Weekly (19th December 2021) - LG Energy, Hyundai Engineering, Chervon, Sirnaomics, JG Mag A/H

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

SK IE Tech In & HDC Out Offers A Clear-Cut Long/Short Setup

This post looks at clear-cut long/short setups resulting from SK IE Tech's KOSPI 200 fast entry for the upcoming rebalancing in June.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)