Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities.

We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities.

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Vietnam Technological & Commer / Equity Bottom-Up

* Head Start On Economic Return to Normalcy: Vietnam Technological and Commercial Bank (TCB.VN) [Techcombank] is a long-term winner in the Vietnamese banking sector. Techcombank is Vietnam's largest joint stock bank by operating income and PBT – remaining the country’s most profitable bank from an ROA perspective despite having only a 3% deposit market share. Techombank is also the leader in mortgage, bancassurance, credit cards, and investment banking;  * Sector Credit Risks Are High: As we review each bank individually we continue to find that net new NPL growth ranges between 50%-150% per annum over the past five years through 2019 – despite the stated NPL figure declining on a growthy loan portfolio and placement of problem loans below the line. In our view, Vietnam has essentially done very little to address its legacy NPLs - which we estimate to be over USD 50 bn or 20% of total loans – and the SBV’s newly adopted “extend and pretend” policy will be substantially additive to the current heap of problem assets even if not labelled such; and* Capital Pressures Rising: With almost no end in sight to the growth of net new NPLs (doubling every year), and capital requirements under Basel II being extremely difficult to attain/maintain without prospects of capital raise or shrinking their balance sheets, commercial banks are set to continue to struggle to grow. The draft amendments to a Decree for tax payment deferral and the SBV’s request not to pay a cash dividend confirms Basel II compliance pressures.

* Head Start On Economic Return to Normalcy: Vietnam Technological and Commercial Bank (TCB.VN) [Techcombank] is a long-term winner in the Vietnamese banking sector. Techcombank is Vietnam's largest joint stock bank by operating income and PBT – remaining the country’s most profitable bank from an ROA perspective despite having only a 3% deposit market share. Techombank is also the leader in mortgage, bancassurance, credit cards, and investment banking;  * Sector Credit Risks Are High: As we review each bank individually we continue to find that net new NPL growth ranges between 50%-150% per annum over the past five years through 2019 – despite the stated NPL figure declining on a growthy loan portfolio and placement of problem loans below the line. In our view, Vietnam has essentially done very little to address its legacy NPLs - which we estimate to be over USD 50 bn or 20% of total loans – and the SBV’s newly adopted “extend and pretend” policy will be substantially additive to the current heap of problem assets even if not labelled such; and* Capital Pressures Rising: With almost no end in sight to the growth of net new NPLs (doubling every year), and capital requirements under Basel II being extremely difficult to attain/maintain without prospects of capital raise or shrinking their balance sheets, commercial banks are set to continue to struggle to grow. The draft amendments to a Decree for tax payment deferral and the SBV’s request not to pay a cash dividend confirms Basel II compliance pressures.

Techombank – Still Vietnam’s Best House In A Bad Neighborhood

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Liquidity Wall:Vietnam is running into a liquidity wall - despite the perception of a positive local investment thesis.  The sovereign has a high level of public debt (near its 65% debt/GDP cap) which constrains spending while the banking system as it converts over to the more stringent Basel II capital regime remains saddled with troubled debt - resulting in systemic balance sheet and liquidity constraints.</li>
<li>
Plans Not Working: Despite the government's half-baked plans to have the Vietnam Asset Management Corporation (VAMC) to offer accounting gimmickry to the banking sector along with the failed plan to privatize the largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs) via the Committee to Manage State Capital at Enterprises (CMSC), this factors are taking a toll on some of Vietnam's largest companies.</li>
<li>
Two Large Troubled Names:  VinGroup (VIC.VN), Vietnam's largest company plans to issue its first THB-denominated bonds after exhausting all of its local funding options in Vietnam and exiting various businesses.  Novaland (NVL.VN) is one of Vietnam's largest real estate developers, which has been under scrutiny for projects with a questionable land-bank acquisition history. </li>
</ul>



Liquidity Wall:Vietnam is running into a liquidity wall - despite the perception of a positive local investment thesis.  The sovereign has a high level of public debt (near its 65% debt/GDP cap) which constrains spending while the banking system as it converts over to the more stringent Basel II capital regime remains saddled with troubled debt - resulting in systemic balance sheet and liquidity constraints.

Plans Not Working: Despite the government's half-baked plans to have the Vietnam Asset Management Corporation (VAMC) to offer accounting gimmickry to the banking sector along with the failed plan to privatize the largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs) via the Committee to Manage State Capital at Enterprises (CMSC), this factors are taking a toll on some of Vietnam's largest companies.

Two Large Troubled Names:  VinGroup (VIC.VN), Vietnam's largest company plans to issue its first THB-denominated bonds after exhausting all of its local funding options in Vietnam and exiting various businesses.  Novaland (NVL.VN) is one of Vietnam's largest real estate developers, which has been under scrutiny for projects with a questionable land-bank acquisition history. 


Vietnam

Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint-Stock Bank, known as Sacombank, operates various personal and corporate banking services such as deposits, foreign exchange transactions, loans, outward transfer, and international payments.

Saigon - Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank provides commercial and personal banking services.

Asia Commercial Bank attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services.

Vietnam Export Import Commercial Joint Stock Bank provides various banking services and products to organizations and individual customers in Vietnam. The company offers demand, savings, time, overnight, accumulated, and payment deposits; deposits with preferential, tiered, and daily interest rates; deposits with optional terms; and certificates of deposit. It also provides housing loans, loans for small traders, loans secured by savings books and valuable papers, loans for securities trading and investments, T-day securities loans, overseas study loans, auto loans, unsecured loans for employees, overdrafts, and loans by investment projects; factoring services; and prepaid, debit, credit, co-branded cards. In addition, the company engages in foreign currency trading by spot, swap, forward, and currency options and gold trading; provides money transfer and remittance services; packaging services for overseas studies; Internet, mobile, and SMS banking services; and bill payment services, such as electricity, water, air ticket, and automatic bill payment services, as well as telecommunication charge payment and collection services. Further, it offers centralized deposit management, payroll, and cash services; payment of travelers� cheques, and cheque issuance and collection; international settlement services. Additionally, the company engages in the receipt of funds entrusted for investment; receipt of funds from domestic and foreign credit institutions; discount of commercial papers, state bonds, and valuable papers; investment in securities; issuance of domestic and international cards; financial advisory services; corporate bond trading; and other banking services. As of December 31, 2014, it operated a network of 208 banking units, including 44 Branches, 163 transaction offices, and 1 savings fund. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank offers commercial banking services.  The Bank provides services in the areas of personal banking, corporate banking, financial banking, and e-banking.  Military Commercial's services include savings accounts, money lending, money transfers, foreign exchange, and money markets.

Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MBB VN)

National Citizen Commercial Joint Stock Bank provides various banking products and services for individuals and businesses in Vietnam. It offers term deposits, bank accounts, and other deposit products; and debit and credit cards. The company also provides loans for buying automobiles; short-term loans for business and production; loans for household items, travel, weddings, healing, and the other necessities of life; investment factory, warehouse, and office loans; home repair, overdraft, working capital, investment in machinery and equipment, and unsecured consumer loans; loans to buy capital property and land plots; and import commodity financing, as well as loans covering tuition fees and living costs for students. In addition, it offers overseas and domestic money transfer; foreign currency exchange; Western Union; phone recharge; and Internet, mobile, and phone banking services, as well as online payment services. The company was formerly known as Nam Viet Commercial Joint Stock Bank and changed its name to National Citizen Commercial Joint Stock Bank in May 2014. National Citizen Commercial Joint Stock Bank was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade accepts deposits and offers commercial banking services.  The bank offers corporate and consumer loans; insurance; securities and derivatives brokerage; lease financing; money transfer; credit cards; and other services

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade (CTG VN)

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade

Vietnam Prosperity Joint Stock Commercial Bank (VPBank) provides commercial banking services. The Bank offers domestic remittance services, savings account, personal loans, e-banking, trade financing, deposits, tax payment, foreign exchange, cash management, and other banking services. VPBank serves customers in Vietnam.

Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint-stock Bank, doing business as Techcombank, provides banking services. The Bank offers savings, deposits, loans, credit cards, monetary management, trade finance, international payment, and foreign exchange services. Techcombank serves individuals, corporates, and the government sectors in Vietnam.

Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam provides commercial banking services. The Company offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, guarantees, and trade finance for customers, corporate, and financial institutions. Bank for Investment also offers foreign exchange, money market, derivatives, and debt market services.

AMMB Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides merchant and commercial banking, retail financing, stock and futures broking, and investment advisory. AMMB also underwrites general insurance, provides asset and unit trust management, and nominees services.

Bank of Hawaii Corporation is a regional financial services holding company with locations throughout the Pacific. The Company and its subsidiaries offers a wide range of financial services to businesses, governments, and individuals in Hawaii, the West Pacific, and American Samoa. Bank of Hawaii provides services such as commercial banking, investment and trust services, and mortgages.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation provides banking services. The Bank checking accounts, lending, credit cards, online and mobile banking, and wealth and treasury management services. Atlantic Union Bankshares serves customers in the United States.

Park National Corporation is a multi-bank holding company.  The Banks provide a variety of financial services, including savings and time accounts, consumer and real estate lending, safe deposit operations, and electronic funds transfers. Park National operates in Ohio.

Community Bank System, Inc. is a holding company for Community Bank, N.A.  The Bank offers a range of commercial and retail banking services in each of its market areas to business, individual, agricultural, and governmental customers. Community Bank operates in northern New York to the southern tier, west to Lake Erie, and in northeastern Pennsylvania.

CVB Financial Corp. is the holding company for Citizens Business Bank and Community Trust Deed Services.  The Bank attracts deposits and originates loans, as well as serves as a federal tax depository for its business customers. Citizens operates in Southern California.

Cathay General Bancorp is the holding company for Cathay Bank.  The Bank accepts deposits and originates various loans, and offers trade financing, spot and forward contracts, internet banking, global investment services, and other services.  Cathay Bank operates in California, New York, Texas, Washington, and Massachusetts.

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk operates in individual and private banking, merchant and corporate banking, regional banking, and investment services.  The Bank also provides financial services such as leasing and factoring, stock broking, underwriting, insurance and investment management through its subsidiaries.

Simmons First National Corporation is a multibank holding company.  The Banks offer various loans, credit card services, checking and savings accounts, personal and corporate trust services, and other products and services through offices located in Arkansas.

Ho Chi Minh Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank provides commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers personal and car loans, overdraft, business financing, term deposits, current accounts, mobile banking, and online bills payment services. Ho Chi Minh Development serves customers in Vietnam.

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HDBank (HDB VN)

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

We show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, including Services, Communications,...

Vermilion Research

Techombank – Still Vietnam’s Best House In A Bad Neighborhood

* Head Start On Economic Return to Normalcy: Vietnam Technological and Commercial Bank (TCB.VN) [Techcombank] is a long-term winner in the...

Thomas J. Monaco

Vietnam - Wheels Are Falling Off

Liquidity Wall:Vietnam is running into a liquidity wall - despite the perception of a positive local investment thesis. The sovereign has a high...

Thomas J. Monaco

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