Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KOSPI 200 rebalancing results are out - <strong>7 Additions: 4 (regular) + 2 (Fast Entry) + 1 (split) &amp; 7 Deletions: 6 (regular) + 1 (Fast Entry) </strong>
</li>
<li>The passive impact of all additions is pretty significant. In particular, <strong>Meritiz, SL, and Kakao Pay</strong> are relatively larger.</li>
<li>For the deletes, it is worth considering approaching these stocks as <strong>an equal-weighted basket</strong>. Since their share prices have not been significantly corrected recently.</li>
</ul>


KOSPI 200 rebalancing results are out - 7 Additions: 4 (regular) + 2 (Fast Entry) + 1 (split) &amp; 7 Deletions: 6 (regular) + 1 (Fast Entry) 

The passive impact of all additions is pretty significant. In particular, Meritiz, SL, and Kakao Pay are relatively larger.
For the deletes, it is worth considering approaching these stocks as an equal-weighted basket. Since their share prices have not been significantly corrected recently.


7 Adds & 7 Deletes in KOSPI 200 Rebalancing: Passive Impact & Trade Setups

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<ul>
<li>There will be 6 additions and 7 deletions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance that will be implemented on 9 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-pay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay (377300 KS)</a> are Fast Entry inclusions to the index, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innocean-worldwide-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26925:1" rel="noopener">Innocean Worldwide (214320 KS)</a> is a deletion on liquidity.</li>
<li>Depending on the float used by KRX, there could be a sharp move higher on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-pay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay (377300 KS)</a> as passive trackers could buy up to 15% of real float.</li>
</ul>


There will be 6 additions and 7 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the December rebalance that will be implemented on 9 December.

Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS) and Kakao Pay (377300 KS) are Fast Entry inclusions to the index, while Innocean Worldwide (214320 KS) is a deletion on liquidity.
Depending on the float used by KRX, there could be a sharp move higher on Kakao Pay (377300 KS) as passive trackers could buy up to 15% of real float.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Mostly Expected, Couple of Surprises

<h2>Rebalancing results</h2><p>The review period for the KOSPI 200 December rebalancing ended on October 29. Below are the results of applying the screening criteria based on the average daily market cap of the review period (May 3 to October 29).</p><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/239/758/original/Screen+Shot+2021-11-04+at+7.22.44+PM.png?1636068186" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="239758"></figure></section><ul>
<li><strong>As a result of regular rebalancing, we can see four adds and four deletes.</strong></li>
<li><strong>In addition, Hyundai Heavy Industries and Kakao Pay are almost 100% likely to join the KOSPI 200 through Fast Entry. The joining date of both will be December 10, the same date as the regular rebalancing.</strong></li>
<li><strong>The stocks that will leave the KOSPI 200 for HHI and Kakao Pay will be Nexen Tire and Lotte Himart (the stocks with the lowest average daily market cap in the previous review period).</strong></li>
</ul>
<h2>Passive impact</h2>
<p>The following is a passive impact assuming KOSPI 200 tracking funds at ₩80T, including both local pensions and variable insurance index funds in addition to ETFs/index funds.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Compared to the absolute size of the passive impact, Meritz Financial Group (add) and Nexen Tire (delete) are likely to face relatively large flow effects.</strong></p></div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/239/760/original/Screen+Shot+2021-11-04+at+7.29.44+PM.png?1636068621" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="239760"></figure></section><p>Below is a passive impact that we can expect if only ₩20T of funds from local ETFs/index funds are applied. This can be seen as a size that will occur on the implementation date (at the close on December 9).</p>
<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/239/764/original/Screen+Shot+2021-11-04+at+7.36.10+PM.png?1636068984" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="239764"></figure></section></section></section>

Rebalancing resultsThe review period for the KOSPI 200 December rebalancing ended on October 29. Below are the results of applying the screening criteria based on the average daily market cap of the review period (May 3 to October 29).
As a result of regular rebalancing, we can see four adds and four deletes.
In addition, Hyundai Heavy Industries and Kakao Pay are almost 100% likely to join the KOSPI 200 through Fast Entry. The joining date of both will be December 10, the same date as the regular rebalancing.
The stocks that will leave the KOSPI 200 for HHI and Kakao Pay will be Nexen Tire and Lotte Himart (the stocks with the lowest average daily market cap in the previous review period).

Passive impact
The following is a passive impact assuming KOSPI 200 tracking funds at ₩80T, including both local pensions and variable insurance index funds in addition to ETFs/index funds.
Compared to the absolute size of the passive impact, Meritz Financial Group (add) and Nexen Tire (delete) are likely to face relatively large flow effects.
Below is a passive impact that we can expect if only ₩20T of funds from local ETFs/index funds are applied. This can be seen as a size that will occur on the implementation date (at the close on December 9).


KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Update After the Review Period Ended

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries  / Event-Driven

<p>The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2021 review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> later this month and the constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 9 December.</p><p>With the review period now complete, we see 7 potential inclusions (5 regular + 2 Fast Entry) and 8 potential deletions from the index. There is one extra deletion to keep the number of index constituents at 200 following the inclusion of SK Square in the index post its spin-off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a>.</p><p>The potential regular inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/f-f-co-ltd-new" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33479:1" rel="noopener">F&amp;F (383220 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skckolonpi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9196:1" rel="noopener">Skckolonpi Inc (178920 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11776:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20694:1" rel="noopener">SL Corp (005850 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/myoung-shin-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29698:1" rel="noopener">Myoung Shin Industrial Co.,Ltd (009900 KS)</a> while the potential Fast Entry inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-pay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay (377300 KS)</a>.</p><p>The potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samyang-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9100:1" rel="noopener">Samyang Foods (003230 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ilyang-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2789:1" rel="noopener">Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., (007570 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lx-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33384:1" rel="noopener">LX Holdings (383800 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotte-himart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12895:1" rel="noopener">Lotte Himart (071840 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/f-f-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15983:1" rel="noopener">F&amp;F Co Ltd (007700 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongwon-f-b-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3274:1" rel="noopener">Dongwon F&amp;B (049770 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lx-hausys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11613:1" rel="noopener">LX Hausys Ltd (108670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexen-tire-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14206:1" rel="noopener">Nexen Tire Corp (002350 KS)</a>.</p><p>There are quite a few stocks that are close adds but just miss out on making the 85% cumulative market cap cut or the 90% of current stocks from the sector in the index cut.</p><p>The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions since August. After giving up some gains and then consolidating, the potential inclusion have started to outperform the potential deletions again over the last week.</p>

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2021 review of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) later this month and the constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 9 December.With the review period now complete, we see 7 potential inclusions (5 regular + 2 Fast Entry) and 8 potential deletions from the index. There is one extra deletion to keep the number of index constituents at 200 following the inclusion of SK Square in the index post its spin-off from SK Telecom (017670 KS).The potential regular inclusions are F&amp;F (383220 KS), Skckolonpi Inc (178920 KS), Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS), SL Corp (005850 KS) and Myoung Shin Industrial Co.,Ltd (009900 KS) while the potential Fast Entry inclusions are Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS) and Kakao Pay (377300 KS).The potential deletions are Samyang Foods (003230 KS), Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., (007570 KS), LX Holdings (383800 KS), Lotte Himart (071840 KS), F&amp;F Co Ltd (007700 KS), Dongwon F&amp;B (049770 KS), LX Hausys Ltd (108670 KS) and Nexen Tire Corp (002350 KS).There are quite a few stocks that are close adds but just miss out on making the 85% cumulative market cap cut or the 90% of current stocks from the sector in the index cut.The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions since August. After giving up some gains and then consolidating, the potential inclusion have started to outperform the potential deletions again over the last week.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview:  Review Period Complete & Trades Performing Well

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p>In this insight, we discuss the end of lock-up periods for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-ie-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29207:1" rel="noopener">SK IE Technology (361610 KS)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a> in 4Q 2021 and 1Q 2022. </p><ul>
<li>In particular, there are lock up periods ending for these four stocks in November and December.</li>
<li>There are also end of lock-up periods for Krafton and Kakao Bank in early February 2022.</li>
<li>Typically, investors tend to focus on the end of the lock-up periods in Korea about 1-2 months ahead of the actual end of these lock-up periods.</li>
</ul><p>In addition to analyzing the end of these lock-up periods, we analyze the recent shorts balance of these stocks in recent weeks. </p><hr><ul>
<li>Although <strong>Kakao Bank's</strong> share price has performed well since the IPO (up 54% from IPO price), its share price is down 22% from the end of the one month lock-up period. The amount of shares that could be sold after the end of the three months and six months lock-up periods are much bigger (18.3 million shares combined) as compared to the 3.1 million shares that could be sold after the one month lock-up period. Therefore, there are continued concerns about additional selling of Kakao Bank shares in November (after the end of the three months lock-up period).</li>
<li>
<strong>Krafton's</strong> share price has not performed well after the IPO (down 2% from the IPO price of 498,000 won). With the upcoming end of the 3 month lock-up period, there could be continued negative pressure for additional selling from the existing shareholders.</li>
</ul>

In this insight, we discuss the end of lock-up periods for Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS), SK IE Technology (361610 KS), Krafton Inc (259960 KS), and KakaoBank (323410 KS) in 4Q 2021 and 1Q 2022. 
In particular, there are lock up periods ending for these four stocks in November and December.
There are also end of lock-up periods for Krafton and Kakao Bank in early February 2022.
Typically, investors tend to focus on the end of the lock-up periods in Korea about 1-2 months ahead of the actual end of these lock-up periods.
In addition to analyzing the end of these lock-up periods, we analyze the recent shorts balance of these stocks in recent weeks. 
Although Kakao Bank's share price has performed well since the IPO (up 54% from IPO price), its share price is down 22% from the end of the one month lock-up period. The amount of shares that could be sold after the end of the three months and six months lock-up periods are much bigger (18.3 million shares combined) as compared to the 3.1 million shares that could be sold after the one month lock-up period. Therefore, there are continued concerns about additional selling of Kakao Bank shares in November (after the end of the three months lock-up period).

Krafton's share price has not performed well after the IPO (down 2% from the IPO price of 498,000 won). With the upcoming end of the 3 month lock-up period, there could be continued negative pressure for additional selling from the existing shareholders.


End of Lock-Ups for Kakao Bank, Krafton, SK IET, & HHI in 4Q 2021 and Increasing Short Volumes

South Korea

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides industrial plant engineering, special and naval shipbuilding, marine engine and machinery, industrial machinery and energy services. HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering markets its products worldwide.

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS)

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering

Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides floating structure construction, steel wire drying, commercial vessels, specialty vessels, gas carrier, tanker, containership, ro ro, bulk carrier, submarine, warship, auxiliaries, cruise ships, and ferries manufacturing services. Hanwha Ocean also offers onshore plants services.

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures crude oil tankers, container vessels, bulk carriers, cruisers, and passenger ferries.  The Company also produces steel and bridge structures, and material handling equipment.  In addition, Samsung Heavy Industries provides civil engineering, architectural, and plant construction services.

Hyundai Rotem Company Ltd. manufactures railroad equipment and defense vehicles. The Company produces high-speed trains, light rail vehicles, locomotives, and passenger coaches, main battle tanks, armored recovery vehicles, and related defense equipment. Hyundai Rotem operates worldwide.

Hyundai Mipo Dockyard Co., Ltd. is shipbuilders in the sectors of medium-sized conventional ships and specialized vessels. The Company constructs and delivers medium-ranged product carriers, chemical tankers, containerships, LPG carriers, pure car truck carriers and others.

Bobcat Company specializes in design, manufacture, marketing and distribution of compact equipment for construction, rental, landscaping, agriculture, grounds maintenance, government, utility, industry and mining.

Hyundai Elevator Co., Ltd. (HELCO) manufactures, installs, sells, and services elevators, escalators, moving walkways, automated parking systems, and material handling systems.  The Company also produces screen doors used on platforms in train stations.

HSD Engine Co., Ltd. is an integrated engine manufacturer specializing in producing diesel engine for large vessels. The Company provides business in diesel power plant construction and operation, engine parts sales, and engine maintenance and repair services.

People and Technology INC is a company manufacturing in Secondary Battery and Semiconductors.

STX Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures diesel engine components for ships. The Company's products include crank shafts, cylinder liners, turbo chargers, and cargo pumps.

XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of construction machinery including road construction machinery, scrapers, concrete mixers and other related products.

XCMG Construction Machinery A (000425 CH)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Limited builds a wide range of ships. The Company produces a wide range of commercial vessels, mini bulk carriers, multi-purpose cargo vessels, containerships, chemical tankers, offshore supply vessels, rescue and salvage vessels, and lifting vessels.

Stanley Black & Decker Inc. is a diversified global provider of hand tools, power tools and related accessories, mechanical access and electronic security solutions, healthcare solutions, engineered fastening systems, and more.

Graco Inc. supplies technology for the management of fluids in both industrial and commercial applications.  The Company designs, manufactures, and markets systems to move, measure, control, dispense, and apply fluid materials.  Graco's products are used for applying paints and coatings, high-pressure cleaning of equipment, and lubricating and maintaining vehicles and other equipment.

Donaldson Company, Inc. manufactures filtration systems and replacement parts. The Company's products include filters and emission control products for heavy duty mobile equipment, in-plant air cleaning systems, air intake systems for industrial gas turbines, and specialized filters for computer disk drives, aircraft cabins, and semiconductors. Donaldson operates around the world.

Nordson Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets systems that apply adhesives, sealants, and coatings to consumer and industrial products during manufacturing operations.  The Company's products include customized electronic controls for the precise application and curing of materials to meet customers' requirements.  Nordson operates around the world.

AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment throughout the world.  The Company sells a range of agricultural equipment and related replacement parts, including tractors, combines, hay tools, sprayers, and forage equipment.  AGCO markets its products under a variety of brand names, including Massey Ferguson, AGCO, Tye, GLEANER, and Hesston.

Thermax Ltd manufactures equipment and machinery used to both produce and to conserve energy. The Company operates through a number of divisions, including Boilers, Heat Recovery Steam Generators, Water Treatment Plants and Air Pollution Control Equipment. In addition, Thermax  produces steam and gas turbines and diesel gensets through a number of strategic alliances.

EBARA CORPORATION manufactures pneumatic and hydraulic pumps and related equipment.  The Company's products include fuel, oil, water, and firefighting pumps, as well as steam turbines and boilers.  Ebara Corporation also engineers garbage incinerators, smoke desulfurizers, and other products related to environmental technology.

Minebea Mitsumi manufactures and markets miniature and instrument ball bearings.  The Company also makes DC motors, servo motors, stepping motors, spindle motors, pivot assemblies, rod-end and spherical bearings, fasteners, and computer keyboards. Minebea Mitsumi has production facilities in Thailand and Singapore.

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding company. The Company provides naval shipbuilding, industrial shipbuilding, crude oil tanker, bulk carrier, container carrier, and other related services. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries also offers offshore and engineering, engine and machinery, offshore, industrial, and marine plant services.

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HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)

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Sanghyun Park

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Mostly Expected, Couple of Surprises

There are 6 adds and 7 deletes for the KOSPI200 at the Dec rebalance. Most of the changes were expected, but there are a couple of surprises. Kakao...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Update After the Review Period Ended

This post is the latest update of the KOSPI 200 December rebalancing after the 6-month review period ended: rebalancing results, passive impact,...

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Complete & Trades Performing Well

The review period for the KOSPI200 Dec rebalance is complete and we see 6 potential adds and 8 potential deletes. Most are high probability changes...

Brian Freitas

End of Lock-Ups for Kakao Bank, Krafton, SK IET, & HHI in 4Q 2021 and Increasing Short Volumes

In this insight, we discuss end of lock-up periods for Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS), SK IE Technology (361610 KS), Krafton Inc (259960 KS),...

Douglas Kim

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