Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

HD Hyundai Marine Solution  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Valuation controversy arises from comparing HD Hyundai Marine Solution, a ship AS specialist, with diverse global companies, leading to a target market cap of ₩5T.</li>
<li>HD KSOE's inclusion worsens the valuation controversy. Applying HD KSOE's last year PER without adjusting for a significant one-off profit seems to inflate HD Hyundai Marine Solution's PER.</li>
<li>Currently, major local IPO funds see HD Hyundai Marine's valuation nearing ₩4T as excessive, despite the industry's revival and potential growth in eco-friendly ship conversions, impacting the upcoming bookbuilding process.</li>
</ul>


Valuation controversy arises from comparing HD Hyundai Marine Solution, a ship AS specialist, with diverse global companies, leading to a target market cap of ₩5T.
HD KSOE's inclusion worsens the valuation controversy. Applying HD KSOE's last year PER without adjusting for a significant one-off profit seems to inflate HD Hyundai Marine Solution's PER.
Currently, major local IPO funds see HD Hyundai Marine's valuation nearing ₩4T as excessive, despite the industry's revival and potential growth in eco-friendly ship conversions, impacting the upcoming bookbuilding process.


Local Color on HD Hyundai Marine Solution's Excessive IPO Valuation

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>HD Hyundai Marine Solution is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in May 2024. This will be one of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2024. </li>
<li>The IPO price range is from 73,300 won to 83,400 won. The IPO offering amount is from 652.4 billion won to 742.3 billion won. </li>
<li>A key beneficiary of HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO is HD Hyundai (62% ownership). Our NAV analysis suggests implied price of 95,632 for HD Hyundai (40% higher than current price).</li>
</ul>


HD Hyundai Marine Solution is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in May 2024. This will be one of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2024. 
The IPO price range is from 73,300 won to 83,400 won. The IPO offering amount is from 652.4 billion won to 742.3 billion won. 
A key beneficiary of HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO is HD Hyundai (62% ownership). Our NAV analysis suggests implied price of 95,632 for HD Hyundai (40% higher than current price).


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

SAMSUNGACTIVE KoAct Dividend Growth ETF / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February.</li>
<li>There are 45 stocks in the ETF and the aim is to beat the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22911:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)</a> by employing an active management strategy. </li>
<li>Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials stocks make up nearly two-thirds of the ETF, the dividend yield of the underlying basket is 4% and the forward dividend yield is slightly higher.</li>
</ul>


The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February.
There are 45 stocks in the ETF and the aim is to beat the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX) by employing an active management strategy. 
Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials stocks make up nearly two-thirds of the ETF, the dividend yield of the underlying basket is 4% and the forward dividend yield is slightly higher.


Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF: A Look at the First Corporate Value-Up ETF

<ul>
<li>Samsung Active Management launched the first Corporate Value Up ETF called KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF on 27 February. It also revealed some of the major constituents of this ETF.</li>
<li>Samsung Active Management revealed the top 20 constituents of this ETF, which comprised 73.2% of the total ETF AUM.</li>
<li>In the coming weeks, there will be many other Corporate Value Up related ETFs that will be created that are similar to Samsung's KoAct Dividend Growth ETF. </li>
</ul>


Samsung Active Management launched the first Corporate Value Up ETF called KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF on 27 February. It also revealed some of the major constituents of this ETF.
Samsung Active Management revealed the top 20 constituents of this ETF, which comprised 73.2% of the total ETF AUM.
In the coming weeks, there will be many other Corporate Value Up related ETFs that will be created that are similar to Samsung's KoAct Dividend Growth ETF. 


Constituents of the 1st Corporate Value Up ETF in Korea

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>According to our NAV analysis, it suggests a base case valuation of 70,272 won per share for HD Hyundai, representing a 23% upside from current levels.</li>
<li>The expected dividend yield of HD Hyundai in 2023 is 7.8% which is attractive.</li>
<li>Hyundai Oilbank generated record results in the past year and this has been a key boost to the NAV of HD Hyundai. </li>
</ul>


According to our NAV analysis, it suggests a base case valuation of 70,272 won per share for HD Hyundai, representing a 23% upside from current levels.
The expected dividend yield of HD Hyundai in 2023 is 7.8% which is attractive.
Hyundai Oilbank generated record results in the past year and this has been a key boost to the NAV of HD Hyundai. 


HD Hyundai: NAV Boost From Record Results At Hyundai Oilbank + High Dividend Yield

South Korea

GS Holdings is a holding company, which operates subsidiaries including GS Caltex Oil, GS Power, GS Home Shopping, GS Retail, and GS Sports.

S-Oil Corporation refines crude oil and sells petroleum and its related products.  The Company mainly focuses on petroleum refining, petrochemical, and lubricant business. S-Oil's major products are gasoline, bunker oil, kerosene, naphtha, lubricants, benzene, toluene, and xylene.

SK Gas Ltd imports, stores, and distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The Company supplies its products mainly to domestic market for household, the transportation industry, and petrochemical products manufacturers.

SK Innovation Co., Ltd. refines, markets, and distributes oil.  The Company produces a variety of petroleum products, such as gasoline, kerosene, liquefied petroleumgas (LPG), and diesel oil.  SK Energy also manufactures petrochemical p roducts, including paraxylene, synthetic resins, styrene monomer, and ethylene.

Hankook Shell Oil Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets lubricants, grease, and other petroleum products used for cars, vessels, industrial machinery, and cutting tools.  The Company exports its products to Southeast Asian countries, Russia, and China.  Hankook Shell is an affiliate of Royal Dutch Shell Group.

Heunggu Oil Co. Ltd. distributes petroleum products through its network of gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stations.

Mi Chang Oil Industrial Co., Ltd. refines, produces, and distributes lubricants used in industrial machinery, ships, and automobiles.  The Company also produces rubber processing oil for rubber products manufacturing and insulating oil for electrical properties.

JC Chemical Co., Ltd, manufactures biofuels including biodisel and other byproducts derived from bioenergy source.

Keystone Global is in coal business selling its coal to steel producers. The Company also operates smartcard business which offers the smartcard with IC chips embedded.

Joong Ang Enervis Co., Ltd. distributes petroleum products.  The Company operates a network of gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stations. Joong Ang Enervis' products include gasoline, kerosene, lubricating oil, and low sulfur diesel.

Scorpio Tankers Inc. operates as a shipping company. The Company provides seaborne transportation of crude oil and other petroleum products. Scorpio Tankers serves customers worldwide.

Golar LNG Limited is an independent owner and operator of liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure including carriers, Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs) and Floating Liquefaction (FLNG) vessels.  Collectively these assets make Golar an integrated midstream LNG services provider supporting resource holders, gas producers and consumers.

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company produces petroleum products. Northern Oil and Gas is currently focused on the Rocky Mountain regions of the United States.

PBF Energy Inc. is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier. The Company offers unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants and other petroleum products in the United States. PBF's finished products are sold through long-term offtake and supply agreements.

California Resources Corporation is an independent oil and natural gas company. The Company focuses on maximizing the value of land, mineral and technical resources for decarbonization by developing carbon capture and storage and other emissions reducing projects. California Resources serves customers in the State of California.

CNX Resources Corporation operates as a natural gas exploration and production company. The Company owns gas reserves that develop and produce natural gas, including methane and shale beds. CNX Resources serves natural gas industry in the United States.

Petronas Dagangan Berhad markets petroleum products and operates service stations domestically. Through its subsidiaries, the Company has operations in aviation fueling at Kuala Lumpur International Airport and bunkering facilities at West Port along with marketing and distributing lubricants.

Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. operates underground coal mining, coal washing and processing. The company also provides ground transportation services.

Yangquan Coal Industry Group Co Ltd. produces, processes, and sells coal. The Company also generates electricity and heat. Yangquan Coal sells its products domestically and exports to other countries.

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited refines oil and produces petroleum and petrochemicals. The Company is a subsidiary of ONGC. Mangalore Refinery operates a refinery in Mangalore city that produces premium diesel and unleaded petrol of high octane.

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL IN)

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited

HD Hyundai Co.,Ltd. operates as a oil refining company. The Company provides crude oil refining, petroleum refinery, and other related products. HD Hyundai markets its products worldwide.

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HD Hyundai (267250 KS)

Local Color on HD Hyundai Marine Solution's Excessive IPO Valuation

This post conveys the sentiment among local IPO fund managers regarding the excessive valuation of the HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO.

Sanghyun Park

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Preview

HD Hyundai Marine Solution is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in May 2024. This will be one of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2024.

Douglas Kim

Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF: A Look at the First Corporate Value-Up ETF

The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February. The div yield of the underlying...

Brian Freitas

Constituents of the 1st Corporate Value Up ETF in Korea

Samsung Active Management launched the first Corporate Value Up ETF called KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF on 27 February. The top 20 constituents...

Douglas Kim

HD Hyundai: NAV Boost From Record Results At Hyundai Oilbank + High Dividend Yield

Hyundai Oilbank generated record results in the past year and this has been a key boost to the NAV of HD Hyundai. The expected dividend yield of HD...

Douglas Kim

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