Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Indian IT services giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a> launched a US$2bn Buyback last week.</li>
<li>The company will buy up to 40,963,855 shares in a Tender Offer-style Buyback at a Buyback Price of INR4,150/share (an 18% premium to today's close).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at the indicative timeline of key events in this Buyback, the company's Buybacks history, proration details, and what this means for investors.</li>
</ul>


Indian IT services giant Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) launched a US$2bn Buyback last week.
The company will buy up to 40,963,855 shares in a Tender Offer-style Buyback at a Buyback Price of INR4,150/share (an 18% premium to today's close).
In this insight, we take a closer look at the indicative timeline of key events in this Buyback, the company's Buybacks history, proration details, and what this means for investors.


Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): US$2bn Mega Buyback; Two More Trading Days Before Ex-Date

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively</li>
<li>Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215


Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Infosys: Infosys’ (INFO) strong deal wins (highest-ever) were offset by sluggishness in volumes and a slower pace of conversion resulting in cuts to our FY25E growth estimates</li><li>While Q2 revenue performance was higher than estimated on certain one-offs and margin expansion was in line, successive quarters of growth guidance cuts reflect near-term uncertainty/pressure on discretionary</li><li>Notwithstanding the weak/washout growth in FY24E, FY25E trajectory is expected to improve, supported by visibility from several mega deal wins i.e</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Infosys: Infosys’ (INFO) strong deal wins (highest-ever) were offset by sluggishness in volumes and a slower pace of conversion resulting in cuts to our FY25E growth estimatesWhile Q2 revenue performance was higher than estimated on certain one-offs and margin expansion was in line, successive quarters of growth guidance cuts reflect near-term uncertainty/pressure on discretionaryNotwithstanding the weak/washout growth in FY24E, FY25E trajectory is expected to improve, supported by visibility from several mega deal wins i.eContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Infosys, HCL Technologies

India

Infosys Limited provides IT consulting and software services, including e-business, program management and supply chain solutions. The Group's services include application development, product co-development, and system implementation and system engineering. Infosys targets businesses specializing in the insurance, banking, telecommunication and manufacturing sectors.

Tech Mahindra Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company markets software for telecommunications equipment manufacturers, telecom service providers, software vendors, and systems integrators.

Wipro Limited specializes in IT and computer related technologies. The Group's services encompass a number of areas, including software architecture, business intelligence systems, e-commerce, data warehousing, Internet access devices, network management, system administration, messaging systems, IT consulting and design. Wipro also has a presence in niche markets of consumer products.

LTIMindtree Limited provides information technology services and solutions. The Company offers analytics and information management, enterprise integration, applications management, cloud computing, testing, and consulting services, as well as geographical information and manufacturing execution systems. LTIMindtree serves customers worldwide.

Mphasis Limited is a global IT and BPO service provider to G2000 companies around the globe, assists its clients in innovating and streamlining their business processes by offering custom solutions for technology and operations outsourcing. The Company focuses on financial services, logistics and technology verticals.

Persistent Systems Limited offers outsourced software product development. The Company offer services that include testing, support, and professional services.

WNS (Holdings) Ltd., operates as a holding company The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides business process outsourcing services including finance, accounting, customer relationship management, and business administration services.

Firstsource Solutions Limited provides business process outsourcing services. The Company provides services globally to companies in the banking, financial services, and insurance industries.

Sonata Software Limited operates an Information Technology company, which provides software products, development services, IT consulting, and a number of business solutions services.  The Group exports its products primarily to the U.S.A., Europe and Asia.

eClerx Services Limited provides data analytics and solutions to global enterprise clients in the financial services, retail and manufacturing industries. The Company offers data analytics, operations management, data audits, metrics management and reporting services.

OBIC Co., Ltd. provides computer system integration, office automation, consultation, and system support services primarily for small and medium size companies.  The Company sells, leases, and maintains computers, peripherals, and related systems.  OBIC also develops and sells customized software and network systems.

Paychex, Inc. provides comprehensive payroll and integrated human resource and employee benefits outsourcing solutions for small- to medium-sized businesses in the United States. The Company's services range from calculating payroll and filing tax payments to administering retirement plans and workers' compensation.

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation provides custom Information Technology (IT) consulting and technology services as well as outsourcing services. The Company's core competencies include technology strategy consulting, complex systems development, enterprise software package implementation and maintenance, data warehousing and business intelligence.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates as a technology platform company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants. The Company offers online payment solutions. PayPal Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Fiserv, Inc. provides integrated information management and electronic commerce systems and services. The Company's solutions include transaction processing, electronic bill payment and presentment, business process outsourcing, document distribution services, and software and systems solutions.

Global Payments Inc. provides electronic transaction processing, information systems, and services.  The Company serves the financial, corporate, government, and merchant communities on a worldwide basis.  Global Payments provides funds transfer, merchant services, merchant accounting, Internet services, and other services.

Gartner, Inc. provides research and analysis on the computer hardware, software, communications, and related information technology industries.  The Company's business segments include research, consulting, measurement, events and executive programs.

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. provides management and technology consulting services to the U.S. government in the defense, intelligence and civil markets. The Company offers economic and business analysis, information technology, intelligence and operations analysis, modeling and simulation, organization and other consulting services.

Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. is a payment services provider. The Company provides credit and debit card processing, electronic banking services, check risk management, check cashing, and merchant card processing services to financial institutions and merchants.

Corpay, Inc. operates as a business payments company. The Company offers global payment, currency risk management, and invoice automation solutions which help businesses to control, simplify, and secure payment for vehicle related expenses, general payables, tolls, insurance, and lodging expenses. Corpay serves customers worldwide.

HCL Technologies Limited provides software development and related engineering services.  The Group's technologies utilize a variety of technologies, including Internet and e-commerce, networking, internet telephony, embedded software, ASIC/VLSI design and testing, satellite and wireless communications, and component based object technologies, including COM, DCOM and COBRA.

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HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): US$2bn Mega Buyback; Two More Trading Days Before Ex-Date

The Record Date for Buyback Entitlement is Saturday 25th November 2023. if you want to participate in the Buyback, the last day to buy shares would...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Infosys, HCL Technologies

Infosys’ (INFO) strong deal wins (highest-ever) were offset by sluggishness in volumes and a slower pace of conversion resulting in cuts to our...

HDFC Securities

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Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): US$2bn Mega Buyback; Two More Trading Days Before Ex-Date

The Record Date for Buyback Entitlement is Saturday 25th November 2023. if you want to participate in the Buyback, the last day to buy shares would...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Infosys, HCL Technologies

Infosys’ (INFO) strong deal wins (highest-ever) were offset by sluggishness in volumes and a slower pace of conversion resulting in cuts to our...

HDFC Securities

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...